Amna: Tomorrow the president
plans to sign into law a
bipartisan bill on same sex
marriage, after what the white
house called a very good week of
delivering for voters.
That optimism despite a jolt to
the new 51-seat senate majority
in senator Kirsten Sinema's
party switch.
Here to analyze all this and
more is our politics Monday team
--
Amy Walter of the cook political
report with Amy Walter.
And Tamara Keith of NPR.
Welcome, good to see you.
I thought it's a good time to
pull together some headlines you
have been seeing around the
president and get perspective on
what comes next.
We saw the president's party
outperform history and the
midterms.
Gas prices are down.
They had a legislative win
codifying same-sex and
interracial marriage
protections.
They brought Brittney Griner
home.
If the president chooses to run
again, is the primary proof?
>> I have been talking to
democratic consultants and
pollsters.
Their sense is yeah, maybe there
could be some gadfly who might
try to run in a primary, but Joe
Biden has cleared the field.
The reality is an incumbent
president should easily clear
the field.
In the past, nobody was asking,
is Barack Obama going to run for
reelection?
And his approval rating was in
the same general neighborhood as
Biden's.
One person told me at this point
with the hyper partisanship and
polarization, you don't have to
be widely beloved even in your
own party to be a strong
contender, depending on what the
other party does.
>> The take away from the
midterm elections was Donald
Trump had a terrible night, Joe
Biden had a great night.
When you look at the data in
terms of how people see both
candidates, it doesn't look like
either one had a particularly
great night and the midterm
elections.
President Biden's approval
ratings, somewhere around 42% --
we are in a really polarized
era, so it is rare you see the
president's approval rating very
high, but still didn't really
get any sort of bump from
overcoming the traditional
midterm drag, nor any of the
things you mentioned about gas
prices etc.
It is not translating to support
for Biden.
There was a poll that came out
this week or late last week.
More than 57% of Democrats, 66%
of independents don't want to
see Joe Biden running.
This was from a democratic
polling firm that came out with,
here is our analysis of what
happened in 2022.
This is the polling firm that
does Joe Biden's polling.
They said Democrats over
performed because voters
disliked Republican candidates
more, not because voters liked
amna: We know his agenda could
be complicated by the fact that
one sitting democratic senator
decided to switch party
affiliations, Christensen him a,
from Democrat to independent.
Politico is reporting that an
Arizona congressman seems to be
taking another step toward
potentially challenging Sinema
in 2024.
He was asked about possibly
running this morning on MSNBC.
>> I'm going to listen to my
family over the holidays.
I have a big Latino family
that's going to come over
Christmas.
It's going to be a very crowded
house.
After that we will be making the
decision based on what's best
for Arizona and based on what I
hear from the constituents of
Arizona.
Amna: Does he run and risk
splitting Democrat voters?
>> A lot of people are spending
a lot of time with their
families this holiday to make
big decisions about their
political futures, including the
president and several
Republicans spending a lot of
time with their families trying
to decide whether to run for
president.
Sinema is now an independent who
votes for Democrats like 90% of
the time.
She is going to stay on
committees, giving them the
majority in the senate.
There are two other independents
who caucus with Democrats, so
she is not blazing a path
necessarily.
The question is if she is an
independent, she doesn't have to
run in them the democratic
primary.
Even though she would not copy
to that, that was part of the
calculation, avoiding a primary
that congressman Gallego was
basically telegraphing.
The question for Democrats is if
it is a three-way race, a
democratic nominee, an
independent who leans democratic
, and an Republican, do the
Democrat and independent split
the left-leaning, center-left
about, and what does that mean?
Does that give a Republican an
easy path?
Amna: What does the president
do?
Does he endorse?
What does the party do?
It's a complicated dance.
She didn't switch parties in the
sense we have seen in previous
years.
But being an independent means
the party itself, you are not
part of any party apparatus.
It's important because Arizona
is not just about the senate
race.
It's a critical senate race for
the presidential race.
To have the party divided is
problematic.
What has helped Democrats in
Arizona these past few years,
since 2018 they have been
incredibly united.
Have not had the kind of
knockdown, drag out primary
fights like Republicans have
had.
Amna: We know the former
Republican gubernatorial
candidate Kari lake has refused
to concede, is challenging that
loss in court, asking the court
to throw out the results of
maricopa county and either
declare her the winner or rerun
the election in that county.
What does this tell us about
Republican voters and future
candidates in Arizona?
>> She is unique.
Of all the candidates who did
support former president Donald
Trump can tension that the
election was rigged or stolen,
they all conceded or have not
gone to the lengths Kari lake
has gone to.
What's important to remember
about throwing out maricopa
county, you know who the top
vote getter was?
Republican state treasurer got
the most votes in maricopa
county.
Second most was mark Kelly the
Democrat, then Kari lake.
If you throw out those votes,
you throw out a lot of
Republican winners.
Amna: How do you look at this?
>> The judicial process is part
of the election system.
People can appeal things.
When courts weigh in, and in the
case of 2020, former president
trump's cases were thrown out,
that's when it is over.
Amna: It looks like that's a
story we are going to be
following for a long time.
Arizona continues to be
interesting.
Tamera Keith, thanks so much.