All eyes are on the Russian bear as it marches across eastern Europe - but is the bigger threat
to the world hiding in the east? Is China actually plotting to take over the world?
As a President famously said, that depends on your definition of “Is”.
There’s no question that China is a massive world power. In fact, depending on your standards,
it might be only the second superpower in the world after the United States. It’s the most
populous country in the world, with over four times the population of the United States. It
has the second largest economy in the world, is the third-largest country in size behind
Russia and Canada, and is one of only a small number of nuclear powers in the world. It’s
certainly the biggest power in Asia - and it might have much bigger ambitions than that.
But what are China’s actual plans for the world?
To find that out, you can look close to home. The province of Hong Kong, which was a British
territory for decades, was handed back to China in 1997 after negotiations which created a plan
of “One Country, Two Systems”. Hong Kong would be allowed to maintain its autonomy and run itself as
a democracy, while China would administer certain larger affairs and it would officially be part of
the larger country. That was the system for a while - until China decided it wasn’t anymore,
and the People’s Republic of China has been tightening the screws ever since.
And China has been through plenty of changes itself.
Since China became a Communist country in the 1949 under Mao Zedong, it’s been
a dictatorship. But Mao’s strict adherence to communist dogma - which led to brutal famines
and repression - have long been replaced with a very different system under Deng Xiaoping
and current leader Xi Jinping. The country kept its autocratic system of government,
while replacing its economic policies with a sort of hybrid government-controlled capitalism. Under
this system, China’s economy has exploded and it’s become one of the world’s largest
producers of electronics, appliances, and mined rare-earth minerals essential for manufacturing.
But in other ways, China’s modernization did not bring good things.
While China is only loosely a communist country now, their security state is still very similar
to what it was under Mao - only with a high-tech twist. In the modern age, governments use the
internet heavily to gain intelligence on potential threats. That’s true in China - and in most other
countries, with powerful tech companies turning over information to the government as needed. In
China, websites like TikTok contain extensive tracking software that the Chinese government
uses for…unknown purposes. And internally, China has become notorious for its social credit system.
This ranks citizens based on their perceived loyalty to the government and their conduct in
other ways, with various privileges being granted only to those with higher social credit scores.
And if you’re under China’s thumb, there is little you can do to escape.
Hong Kong was given guarantees of a certain level of autonomy for a specific term - but
in recent years those guarantees have been largely overrun. While they still have separate elections,
Chinese authorities increasingly interfere in them and disqualify or arrest candidates who
oppose the People’s Republic’s policies. This often leads to largely unopposed elections,
and the recent Covid shutdowns led to China getting even more
directly involved and shutting down protests and public gatherings.
So if you’re inside China, you’re probably kept
under a pretty tight grip. But what if you’re outside of it?
That depends on where you are - because China has been involved in a territorial conflict near
its borders for almost seventy years now. When the People’s Republic of China took control, it was in
the middle of a brutal civil war. The communists ultimately won, but the forces of the Republic
of China managed to consolidate their forces on the island of Taiwan and hold it - essentially
creating a new country there. The only problem is…China still refuses to recognize Taiwan as an
independent country. In fact, while they claim they’re the legitimate government of Taiwan,
the Taiwanese government - now a democracy - still claims it’s the rightful government of
mainland China! But the People’s Republic has much more power, and they’ve managed to use diplomatic
pressure to prevent international recognition of Taiwan as a United Nations member state.
And they’re not afraid to punch back against big targets.
China takes it as a personal offense when anyone recognizes Taiwan as being independent- even if
that person isn’t actually the head of a country. That’s why most US politicians have avoided paying
visits to Taiwan in the last few decades, to avoid causing any diplomatic crises for the President.
But in 2022, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and some other members of Congress decided to make a visit to the
island nation, and China responded hard. They stepped up military drills around the island,
terrorizing the citizens, and one Chinese propagandist even said the country should shoot
down Pelosi’s plane. While clearly that would have started a hot war between China and the US,
and cooler heads prevailed, it was clear China was willing to escalate in a hurry.
But is China all talk and no action?
That depends on where you look. While they get a lot of attention for their over-the-top
online personality, with colorful propagandists spreading conspiracy theories and trying to meme,
they actually do maintain a very strong deterrent against international criticism - and it’s one
Russia is fond of as well. China’s justice system is notoriously harsh, with long sentences and the
death penalty on the table for many crimes - far more than murder or treason. And while most of the
people in Chinese prisons are Chinese, they have commonly arrested people from other countries for
the purpose of prisoner exchanges. When the CEO of Chinese company Huawei was arrested in Canada,
it wasn’t long before a Canadian citizen was arrested in China on drug charges.
But China’s reach is growing - fast.
No one knows exactly what China’s long-term plans are. The People’s Republic has made
many claims about invading Taiwan, and they’re no doubt looking closely at Russia and Ukraine
to see how that would go. But that’s…not going well for Russia. Most of the world has committed
to supporting Ukraine with military and financial backing, and Russia has found itself increasingly
isolated and sanctioned. While Taiwan isn’t universally acknowledged as an independent
country in the same way Ukraine is, the United States has promised to defend it - so any sort
of hot war on the island would likely escalate quickly, with potential nuclear consequences.
So China may be taking a slower, and more global approach.
China’s internet efforts go far beyond an army of internet trolls,
and they may just be becoming the world’s most premiere cyberhacking organization.
While they’re certainly not sharing the details of their operations, it’s believed that they have
three divisions of cyberwarriors - specialized military forces that train in cyberattacks and
work on behalf of the government, state workers who aren’t in the military but are
tasked with cyberwarfare and spying, and a group of non-government workers who are likely hired by
the government and have more deniability when they need to break into rival governments’ networks.
And they’ve caused a lot of damage.
Who has China hacked? Who haven’t they hacked? Countless countries have claimed
that Chinese hackers have taken classified data. Australia claimed that a 2013 attack
accessed the blueprints of their intelligence headquarters, while Canada reported a 2011
attack that compromised multiple federal departments. Japan has reported at least
two hundred cyber-attacks on Japanese companies and scientific institutes, while China’s frequent
rival India reported multiple denial-of-service attacks that may have come from agents of the
Chinese government. Ukraine reported attacks during the opening days of the war - maybe
China acting on behalf of Russia - and even the Vatican reported hacking attacks.
And then there’s the United States.
China has been the top target of Chinese cyber-attacks for a long time,
with reports of attacks on military, government, commercial, and industrial organizations. Even
the largest companies in the world aren’t safe - Google was hacked in 2010 and reported that
the privacy of its users was compromised. They also went after massive companies like
military contractor Northrop Grumman and manufacturing giant Dow Chemical. An attack
on Yahoo might have had less implications for national security - but they probably got a
good look at all your mom’s e-mails, including that extended exchange with a Nigerian Prince.
So what does China actually want with all that data?
Well, if you’d ask them, they’d say “We don’t know what you’re talking about. No cyber-hacking
here.” as they proceed to hack another company. And because China refuses to fess up to its
cyber-hacking efforts, it’s hard to say what they’re actually after. When they hack private
companies, it may be Chinese-style capitalism at work - stealing trade secrets so they can
give them to their own companies, allowing them to produce lower-cost remakes of major US products,
giving them a leg up in the market. They may also be looking for access to key diplomatic cables in
their hacking of government institutions. But cybersecurity experts worry about a much bigger
threat. If China knows how to get into the mainframes of major companies and government
institutions, then they may be looking for a way to turn them off - and if they were to initiate
a war over Taiwan or another country, being able to kneecap the US’ military and civilian
infrastructure at exactly the right moment could give them the edge they need to finish the job.
But is China actually planning a big move?
If they are, they have been putting their pieces on the board for a long time. China
has a long reach in Asia, and it goes far beyond Taiwan and Hong Kong. They unilaterally claim
sovereignty over the entire South China Sea - which puts them into conflict with Indonesia,
the Philippines, Vietnam, and other countries. China’s claim means that they have the authority
to stop intelligence-gathering activities by foreign militaries in the sea - which has
led to multiple near-misses between Chinese aircraft and those of other
countries. The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines during a recent dispute - and
China’s response was to reiterate its claims and continue its campaign of harassment.
So why does China want this territory so much?
Some people think it’s just maximalism. After all, if you claim the sea surrounding a bunch
of countries, it’s really not a big reach to then claim those countries. But the ocean
itself is incredibly valuable, with an estimated eleven billion barrels of untapped oil and almost
two hundred trillion cubic feet of natural gas hiding far below the waves. If China manages
to get the world to accept their authority over these islands, they would have a huge leg up in
energy production - something they very much need with their massive population and energy needs.
This area also has multiple highly sought-after fishing areas, which would give China the food
it needs without having to rely on imports. And more importantly, they would control the access
to food of many poorer countries who would have no choice but to align with them.
And when you can’t find a beachhead…why not make one?
China has been known to take over small islands in the South China Sea, but they’ve started taking
another approach - building artificial islands in the South China Sea that let them create
unchallenged military staging grounds. These islands are typically built on rocks or reefs
that are close to the surface of the water. After dredging the area to create a more solid floor,
they’re covered with harder material and turned into small military bases. This
turns the disputed sea area into what’s de facto Chinese territory - and serves
as an act of intimidation against any other country that tries to set foot in the area.
But is China a threat to the region?
So far, China seems to be trying to win through soft power rather than
open military action. They’re hands-down the biggest military power in the region,
which means that any other country is likely to back down when directly challenged. While North
Korea and India are also nuclear powers, North Korea is typically aligned with China and India is
preoccupied by its conflict with Pakistan. China’s tensest relations in the region are with Vietnam,
which it fought wars with previously. Now the two Communist countries have hit rough waters,
with China increasingly encroaching on Vietnam’s coastline in the South China Sea while harassing
Vietnamese ships. In 2014, China began building an oil rig deep within Vietnam’s ocean territory.
China seems to be making itself a regional power through sheer
force of will - but elsewhere, it’s taking a very different approach.
There is no continent more open to realignment than Africa. Historically the subject of
colonialism, occupation, and a brutal slave trade, many of its nations only gained independence in
the 20th century - often at the conclusion of bloody wars. Now, while many of the countries
do have good diplomatic relations with Europe and North America, there are naturally old wounds to
heal. And that’s why China sees the continent as a massive opportunity for expansion. But this time,
they’re not looking to intimidate their way into a seat at the table.
They’re looking to buy their way in.
Chinese investments in Africa have gained a lot of attention in recent years,
as the country moves many of its manufacturing efforts there. Africa is far away from China’s
expansionist actions in the South China Sea, and as such many African countries
are neutral to China. So when a Chinese firm shows up looking to build a factory there,
they’re likely to be approved. And China knows how to sweeten the deal. They’ll frequently
build new housing or other infrastructure as part of their investment, creating potential
loyalists down the line should the world divide between China and the United States.
And for China, investing in Africa just makes sense.
Many people see Africa as the future of the world. Not only is the population of the region
expected to double within the next thirty years, the highest growth of any continent,
but seven of the world’s ten fastest-growing economies are located here. That may makes Africa
the world’s best place for future investments, and China has made clear that they’re not just
restoring the old dynamic of Africa being used as a looting ground for world powers. They frequently
staff their companies with African workers, providing jobs to the local economy - although
they tend to be low-skill and low-paid jobs, while Chinese figures hold the higher positions.
But is this good or bad for Africa?
Some worry that China is setting Africa up for what’s called a debt trap, where they invest
heavily in a country in exchange for promises of repayment of the investment - only for the
profits to never come and the country to be stuck in a state of limbo. That hasn’t happened so far,
as it doesn’t seem like China simply wants to extract resources or money from Africa - they
view it as a diplomatic investment as well. China wants to control the tech infrastructure
in these countries, bringing industry to many of them for the first time. If China was to go
to war with the United States and NATO, those countries would find themselves potentially cut
off from a massive infrastructure network as China had commandeered it. One of the
biggest concerns about this effort is that the heavy industrialization in African countries is
hurting their environment, but the governments in most countries seem excited for the investment.
But is there a longer plan at work here?
China seems to have a hand in just about every region, similar to other superpowers of the past
and present. For Europe and North America, they mostly have cautious diplomacy and an
aggressive cyberhacking strategy to gain intelligence. For their neighbors in Asia,
they approach with belligerence and flex their muscles to claim territory. But for
nations in the so-called third world, there’s often an outstretched hand instead - offering
heavy investments and possibly an alliance against the older powerhouses of the world.
And some think this might all be coming together for China to make a big move.
Many people have said the 21st century could be a Chinese Century,
with the country’s economy growing by leaps and bounds. But they’ve been hit hard by their
efforts to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, leading to economic slowdowns. Additionally,
they’ve lost many diplomatic allies in the west due to their aggressive military tactics and their
domestic policies - particularly their internment of the massive Uighur Muslim population and their
treatment of other minority groups like Buddhists and the Falun Gong movement. That’s kept their
growth in check, with many western countries becoming more hesitant to invest heavily there.
Which leads people to worry - are they biding their time for a military move?
China is incredibly powerful militarily, maybe the second strongest military in the world.
While Russia has the most nuclear weapons of any country, its weapons are old and unreliable to
the point where no one knows how many would even fire. China is estimated to have only
350 nuclear weapons - a far smaller arsenal than the United States- but every single one of them
is in working order and many are attached to powerful missiles that could hit just
about anywhere in the world. They’re also one of only a few countries to have aircraft carriers,
and their naval and aerial fleets are believed to be competitive with the United States’ fleet.
But their biggest weapon may be how prepared they are.
So if China was planning to actually take over the world, how would they go about it?
The first step would likely be to plan it with some other countries. China has become one of
Russia’s few remaining allies since the war with Ukraine, helping them get around sanctions and
providing vital economic help. So if China wanted to make its own move on Taiwan - or a much bigger
plan - it would likely pull Russia in for help. A coordinated attack on several targets might
be much harder to coordinate. And they might have a third partner as well - North Korea, run by the
infamous Kim Jong-Un. Like China and Taiwan, North Korea has never accepted the independence of South
Korea even after seventy years. A three-pronged attack like this might take the world by surprise.
But would they actually win?
In terms of a full military invasion, we’ve seen how Russia has performed and
North Korea has never been tested against a military outside its peninsula. But China’s
naval fleet is fearsome and many believe it could fight the US fleet to a standstill
in the pacific. And when you have two nuclear powers standing off and shooting at each other,
there’s always the risk of escalation. China could not win a nuclear war with
the United States - but a major nuclear exchange would likely mean neither country
is left standing. So China is hoping to avoid a nuclear war - and it may have a plan to do so.
Could China win a war without ever firing a shot?
This might be where China’s cyberhacking infrastructure comes into play. Unlike
other military attacks, hackers don’t announce themselves. They sneak in under the cover of
darkness. Imagine if one morning, America woke up and nothing was working. The internet was down,
smart devices were malfunctioning, and even the government’s connections weren’t working.
They spend hours getting things up and running - and tune into the news to find
that Chinese warships are shelling Taiwan, their military has established beachheads in
Vietnam and the Philippines, and North Korea has crossed the demilitarized zone. While
the fighting is far from over, China has declared their invasion successful - and
says that any interference from the US will be an invasion of THEIR territory!
Surely the United States will arm up, right?
Not so fast. Maybe China calls in its chips with Africa and cuts the United States off from
several key suppliers. Supply chain issues were a bane of Russia in the Ukraine war,
and the United States might now face the same problem. China will have cut off its supplies,
as will any country aligned with it. More critical, an occupied Taiwan would no longer
provide America with the key semiconductors it needs to operate much of its technology,
and the United States would have to think twice before expending key military technology. While
South Korea’s fearsome military would likely be able to hold off North Korea for a long time,
and China would likely rein in the north to keep them from using nuclear weapons,
it’s unlikely that Taiwan or southeast Asian nations could hold out too long without support.
But is this where China would want to stop?
Taking over much of Asia has been China’s goal for a long time, and if this plan would work,
it would have pulled it off without getting bogged down in a global conflict. This would
firmly entrench it as a superpower and make the United States look toothless. More countries
would be looking to align with China, and that includes India. China’s goal would likely be to
turn India into a regional client state rather than actively trying to conquer it, and with
Pakistan on one side and China on the other, they could put a lot of pressure on the subcontinent.
Smaller nations in the region would likely choose to align with China for protection, and China’s
next big step would be to expand further out into the Pacific. Many small island nations
there could be pressured into signing deals giving the Chinese free reign in exchange for protection.
And that might bring China into direct conflict with the United States.
While most Pacific islands are independent nations by now, the United States has several territories
including Guam and American Samoa. While they’re unlikely to try to annex any of them outright - at
least at this stage - they would likely start treating them in a similar way to the way they
did Vietnam initially. They would just step on their sovereignty as much as they want and dare
them to respond. Would the United States tolerate this? That depends on the political climate at the
time - how much hunger does the United States have for a conflict with a rival superpower?
Does the public agree with defending these islands, or do they leave them to their fate?
If they’re left to their fate, that’s another blow against the United States’ standing in the world -
and the next on the chopping block is Hawaii, an actual state but located thousands of miles away
from the mainland. With a strong independence movement, could China make inroads there?
So China’s plan may not be to conquer the world in a shock-and-awe military campaign against the
most powerful armies in the world. It may simply be planning to expand its power and influence,
piece by piece, until it stands alone as the most powerful superpower in the world.
Want to know more about China’s plans for the region? Check out “Could Taiwan
Hold off a Chinese Invasion?” or watch this video instead.