MICHAEL, YOU SPOKE WITH THE CHAIR TODAY.
YOU SPENT YOUR DAY AT THE FED. PUT IT IN CONTEXT, BECAUSE IT
SOUNDS LIKE THE MARKET WAS RIGHT ALL ALONG. MICHAEL:
THE FED DID NOT HAVE TO DO MUCH TODAY TO REINFORCE THE MARKETS
BELIEVE -- THE MARKET'S BELIEF THAT WE ARE IN A NEW REGIME.
ONE WORD CHANGE IN THE STATEMENT WHERE THEY SAID 'ANY
POSSIBLE -- SAID "ANY" POSSIBLE RATE MOVES.
THEY ADDED ONE ADDITIONAL CUT TO 2024.
THAT WAS ENOUGH TO TOLD THE MARKETS THAT IT IS A NEW REGIME
NOW. THE MARKETS WERE ESSENTIALLY
RIGHT. IT IS INTERESTING THAT 12 DAYS
AGO JAY POWELL HAD COMPLETELY A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THINGS AND
NOW HE'S REVERSED AND LOOKED VERY HAPPY UP THERE. KAILEY:
YOU SAY THE MARKET WAS RIGHT, AND YET IT STILL SEEMED LIKE IT
HAD REPRICING TO DO OFF THE BACK OF THIS.
YOU SAW THE TWO YEAR TREASURY YIELD DROPPING 30 BASIS POINTS,
ANOTHER BIG RALLY IN STOCKS THAT ARE APPROACHING RECORD
HIGHS. WHEN WE KNOW THE FED IS TRYING
TO ACHIEVE TIGHTER FINANCIAL CONDITIONS, DO THE MARKETS
EFFECTIVELY GET A PRESENT, THAT MEANS THE FED MIGHT HAVE TO
TAKE AWAY THE PUNCH BOWL AT SOME POINT? MICHAEL:
I SUPPOSE YOU COULD DRAW THAT LOGICAL CONCLUSION, EXCEPT THAT
THE FED DOES NOT SEEM TO BE CARING AS MUCH ABOUT FINANCIAL
CONDITIONS AS THEY DID BEFORE. THEY SEEM TO BE AT THIS POINT
ALMOST TAKING A SOFT LANDING VICTORY LAP BAND SAYING WE DID
IT AND -- LAP AND SAYING WE DID IT.
THEY DID NOT TELL US WHEN THEY ARE GOING TO CUT AND BY HOW
MUCH. THE DOT PLOT IS 19 INDIVIDUAL
FORECASTS. THEY GAVE THE IMPRESSION THAT
THE REGIME HAS CHANGED. WE ARE LOOKING AT RATE CUTS,
AND THAT INTEREST RATES ARE PROBABLY GOING TO GO DOWN IN
THE COMING YEAR. THE MARKETS ALWAYS HAVE TO
OVERDO EVERYTHING AND OVERREACT TO EVERYTHING.
I WOULD IMAGINE THAT SOME OF WHAT WE SAW TODAY WOULD COME
BACK DEPENDING ON THE ECONOMIC DATA WE GET.
IN GENERAL WE WILL BE SEEING THIS BIAS FOR THE DOWNSIDE. JOE:
YOU WONDER THE POLITICAL ACTION. THE STAKES ARE AWFULLY HIGH FOR
JOE BIDEN. THE TIMING COULD BE INCREDIBLE
FOR HIM IN A GOOD WAY. WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT HIGH
PRICES, THE IMPACT POLITICALLY OF INFLATION AND WHY HIS
APPROVAL NUMBERS ARE SO LOW FOR MONTHS.
AS HE ENTERS THE ACTUAL YEAR OF HIS POTENTIAL REELECTION
THOUGH, IT LOOKS LIKE STARS MAY BE ALIGNING.
IF WE ARE IN A WORLD WHERE THE FED IS CUTTING RATES, MARKETS
ARE LIKING IT, EVEN IF OVERREACTING, THAT IS A WIN FOR
JOE BIDEN, ISN'T IT? IN GENERAL, THE LIKELY SPEAKING
-- POLITICALLY SPEAKING. JULIE: THIS IS A BIG WIN FOR HIM
POLITICALLY. THE MESSAGE ON INFLATION, HE
HAS HAD TROUBLE SELLING IT. HERE YOU WILL ACTUALLY HAVE
SOME THING TANGIBLE. YOU MAY HAVE LOWER INTEREST
RATES. GETTING A HOUSE COULD BE CHEAPER. YOUR GROCERIES COULD BE
CHEAPER. WITH ALL THAT GOING ON, THAT
WORKS IN THE PRESIDENT'S FAVOR. KAILEY:
I GUESS IT BECOMES A QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY THAT TRANSLATES
-- THAT TRANSMITS TO THE ECONOMY.
YOU HAVE THE FED CUT 25 BASIS POINTS, YOU STILL WILL BE
LOOKING AT A REALLY HIGH MORTGAGE RATE.
WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT EVERYTHING GOING BACK TO A
PRE-COVID NORM. MICHAEL: NO, PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO GET
USED TO THE IDEA THAT RATES WILL BE PERMANENTLY HIGHER.
MORTGAGE RATES WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE 4% TO 5% RANGE AT BEST
WHEN THEY GET OLDER RATE CUT STONE.
IT IS JUST A QUESTION OF WHEN PEOPLE THINK THEY WILL BE LOWER
ENOUGH TO START BUYING HOUSES. THE IDEA THAT RATE CUTS ARE
COMING AND THAT MORTGAGE RATES ARE GOING DOWN AND THAT CREDIT
RATES ARE GOING TO GO DOWN. WHAT REALLY HELPS A PRESIDENT
IN AN ELECTION YEAR IS THE PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY IN
THE FIRST TWO QUARTERS. COMING NOW, THIS IS GOOD NEWS
FOR JOE BIDEN. GEORGE H W BUSH WAS IN A
SIMILAR SITUATION. ALAN GREENSPAN DID NOT CUT
RATES UNTIL JUST BEFORE THE ELECTION.
BUSH ALWAYS BLAMED HIM FOR HIS LOSS, SAYING I APPOINTED HIM,
HE DISAPPOINTED ME. JOE: SO IT IS NOT TOO LATE FOR JOE
BIDEN IF WE GO WITH CONVENTIONAL WISDOM.
POTENTIAL UPSIDE FOR THIS ADMINISTRATION VERSUS POTENTIAL
DOWNSIDE WE SAW TODAY OUTSIDE THE CAPITOL BUILDING.
WE KEEP HEARING THE QUESTION, WHERE IS HUNTER?
HE SHOWED UP HERE TODAY IN WASHINGTON DC.
HUNTER BIDEN SPOKE FROM THE CAPITAL AS HE REFUSED TO GIVE A
DEPOSITION TO REPUBLICAN LAWMAKERS.
>> IN THE DEPTHS OF MY ADDICTION I WAS EXTREMELY
IRRESPONSIBLE WITH MY FINANCES. BUT TO SUGGEST THAT IS GROUNDS
FOR AN IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY IS BEYOND THE ABSURD.
IT'S SHAMELESS.
THERE IS NO EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THE ALLEGATIONS THAT MY FATHER
WAS FINANCIALLY INVOLVED IN MY BUSINESS BECAUSE IT DID NOT
HAPPEN. JOE: INTERESTING MANEUVER HERE.
HE REFERRED TO MAGA AND HE TALKED SPECIFICALLY BY NAME
ABOUT THE CHAIRS OF THE OVERSIGHT AND JUDICIARY
COMMITTEES, WHO HE SAYS HAVE ESSENTIALLY RUINED HIS AND HIS
FAMILY'S LIVES THROUGH THE PROCESS HERE.
IS THIS A GOOD THING FOR JOE BIDEN, TO HAVE HIM SPEAK
PUBLICLY LIKE THAT WITH POLITICAL REFERENCES, NAMING
NAMES TODAY ON THE HELP? JULIE: FIRST OF ALL, HE IS MAKING IT
POLITICAL AS WELL NOW. THERE HAS BEEN ALL THIS TALK OF
POLITICS. I WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED IF
THE WHITE HOUSE DIDN'T KNOW EXACTLY WHAT HE WAS PLANNING TO
SAY TODAY. BUT AGAIN, THIS IS NOT
SOMETHING THAT THE PRESIDENT WANTS TO DEAL WITH ON THE
CAMPAIGN TRAIL. HE DOES NOT WANT TO DEAL WITH
TALKING ABOUT AN IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY.
HE DOES NOT WANT TO BE TALKING ABOUT HIS SON.
THAT PUT IT IN THE SPOTLIGHT. WHAT HUNTER BIDEN DID DO TODAY
WAS SAY, I'M READY TO TALK TO YOU, I JUST WANT TO DO IT IN A
PUBLIC FORUM WHERE NOW YOU HAVE LAWMAKERS TALKING ABOUT HOLDING
HIM IN CONTEMPT. IF THEY DON'T DO THIS IN THE
FORUM THAT THEY WANT. IT IS GOING TO BE WHO BLINKS
FIRST, WHAT HAPPENS? THIS IS SOMETHING THAT COULD
END UP NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR EITHER THE DEMOCRATS OR
REPUBLICANS. KAILEY: JULIE, TO YOUR POINT THE WHITE
HOUSE SECTOR -- WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY SAID THEY KNEW
WHAT UNDERWOOD SAY ON THE HILL TODAY. THE CHAIRS OF THE HOUSE
OVERSIGHT AND JUDICIARY COMMITTEE SAY THEY WILL LAUNCH
CONTEMPT PROCEEDINGS. JIM JORDAN TOOK NOTE
SPECIFICALLY OF SOMETHING HUNTER BIDEN SAID.
TAKE A LISTEN TO WHAT HE SAID THIS MORNING.
>> HE SAID HIS FATHER WAS NOT FINANCIALLY INVOLVED IN THE
BUSINESS. I THINK THAT QUALIFIER, THE
WORLD FINANCIALLY -- WORLD FINANCIALLY, IS IMPORTANT.
IT SHOWS ANOTHER CHANGE IN THE STORY.
FIRST IT WAS NO INVOLVEMENT, THEN NO, I NEVER TALKED TO
ANYONE. THEN WE FIND OUT ABOUT THE
DINNERS, THE MEETINGS. NOW IT IS, HE WAS NOT INVOLVED
IN THE BUSINESS FINANCIALLY. I THINK THAT IS IMPORTANT.
KAILEY: IF YOU ARE THE PRESIDENT'S SON
OR THE PRESIDENT'S REELECTION CAMPAIGN, IS IT AS MUCH ABOUT
THE SUGGESTION AS IT IS THE ULTIMATE ANSWERS?
IS IT NOT IN THEIR INTERESTS TO JUST GET THIS WRAPPED UP SO
THEY CAN'T BE IMPLYING THINGS ABOUT YOU? JULIE:
IT IS CERTAINLY IN THEIR INTEREST TO NOT BE ANSWERING
QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS ALL THE TIME ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL.
I THINK THAT HAS SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE FACT THAT HUNTER
BIDEN IS SAYING, HERE I AM, BRING ME IN FRONT OF PEOPLE AND
I WANT TO SAY THIS PUBLICLY. THIS IS NOT SOMETHING YOU WANT
TO TALK ABOUT ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL, HOWEVER ANOTHER
IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY IS NOT SOMETHING REPUBLICANS MAY WANT
TO ANSWER QUESTIONS ABOUT EITHER.
THIS CREATES PROBLEMS FOR BOTH SIDES AS WE GET CLOSER TO
ELECTION DAY. JOE: