I WANT TO THANK YOU BOTH VERY
MUCH.
I APOLOGIZE FOR THE PROBLEMS AT
THE OUTSET THERE.
LET'S GO TO THE FORMER CBO
TERROR OF COURSE HE'S BEEN
THROUGH MAYBE A COUPLE OF
SHUTDOWNS IN HIS DAY.
THIS ONE IS VERY PROBLEMATIC AND
I DON'T KNOW IF THE RECIPE IS
THERE TO END ANYTIME SOON.
A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE WORRYING
ABOUT SPREADING ITS TENTACLES TO
LOANS AND DELAYED IPOs AND WAY
BEYOND THE 800,000 FEDERAL
WORKERS WHO ARE IMPACTED TO SAY
NOTHING ABOUT A GOVERNMENT
CONTRACT TEARS.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> I THINK YOU'VE GOT THAT
RIGHT.
DIRECT IMPACTS ARE TYPICALLY
VERY SHORT IN DURATION AND
RELATIVELY MINOR.
WHAT WE SEE NOW IS SOMETHING
THAT HAS DRAGGED ON LONGER THAN
MANY PEOPLE EXPECT IT AND IT
PRETTY NOW.
THE KIND THE NUTS AND BOLTS OF
THE ECONOMY DON'T TAKE ABOUT
VERY MUCH.
FAA CERTIFIES FLIGHT TO HAWAII
FOR EXAMPLES.
NO BECAUSE THEY'RE ON FURLOUGH.
IT'S STARTING TO INTERFERE WITH
NORMAL BUSINESS DECISIONS AND
NOT IMPACTED GOING TO GET
LARGER.
RIGHT NOW WE ARE SOMETHING THAT
HALF A PERCENTAGE POINT IN AN
ECONOMY THAT WAS FLOWING ANYWAY
AND IT'S GOING TO GET LARGER
FROM NOW.
THERE ARE TWO BIG THINGS COMING
UP THAT I THINK THE SHUTDOWN IS
IMPORTANT FOR.
THESE BAD POLITICS MADE PEOPLE
WONDER WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE GET
TO THE DEBT LIMIT?
ARE WE GOING TO GET PASSED BY
WITHOUT A BIG DISTRACTION?
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE HAVE A
FISCAL FLOOD SCENARIO WITH A
SNAP AT TO THE COPS THAT ARE
HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
LOWER THAN THEY NEED TO BE.
THE REAL IMPACT IN THE POLITICS
HERE IS ON FUTURE DECISIONS THAT
MIGHT HAVE TO BE NEGOTIATED.
NEIL: OBVIOUSLY REPUBLICANS HAVE
BEEN POUNCING ON THE NOTION THAT
THE SHUTDOWN ONE THAT CAUSED ME
MORE THAN THE COST OF THE WALL
THE PRESIDENT WANTED SOMETIME
NEXT WEEK.
I MIGHT BE OFF BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHAT DID YOU MAKE OF THAT
ARGUMENT?
IT IS WHAT IT IS I'M A BLOODY
THING?
>> IT'S APPLES TO ORANGES.
WE'VE GOT A CONSTRUCTION COST
FOR BORDER SECURITY THE
PRESIDENT WANTS IN SOME LARGER
ECONOMIC FALLOUT FROM THE
SHUTDOWN.
WHAT IT TELLS YOU IS THE
POLITICS HERE ARE SUFFICIENTLY
TOXIC, HOLDING THE ECONOMY
HOSTAGE WITH AN OKAY FOR BOTH
SIDES.
QUITE FRANKLY THAT WAS AN
IMPORTANT MOMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN THE PRESIDENT
OFFERED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY AND
SAID I'VE JUST BEEN ABOUT, YES
OR NO, IT WAS SOME THINGS YOU
WANT WORSEN THINGS I WANT TO GET
MY FUNDING.
THAT'S NORMALLY HOW THESE THINGS
GET RESOLVED.
YOU BROADEN OUT THE ISSUES UNDER
CONSIDERATION AND FIND A WAY FOR
BOTH SIDES TO GET SOMETHING.
NEIL: YEAH, GOOD LUCK ON THAT
FRONT.
THE U.S. SENATE MAJORITY LEADER
MITCH McCONNELL SAYS THE
SENATE WILL VOTE ON THE
PRESIDENT'S PROPOSAL TO THE
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN TO YOUR
POINT THAT WAS THE ONE THAT
INCLUDED FUNDING FOR DACA, THE
CHILDREN HERE THROUGH NO FAULT
OF THEIR RUN IN THIS LEGAL LIMBO
AS WELL AS THE $5.6 BILLION IT
DOESN'T HAVE TO BE A WHILE.
IS THAT ENOUGH YOU THINK?
OBVIOUSLY A SENATE VOTE COMES
OUT.
YOU NEED 60 VOTES FOR THAT SCENE
A CENTER-RIGHT DEMOCRATIC VOTES.
YOU THINK YOU GET THAT.
>> I HAVEN'T SEEN SEVEN OR EIGHT
DEMOCRATS RAISING THEIR HAND.
IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ENOUGH AT
THE MOMENT.
BUT WE DON'T KNOW AND CAN'T
KNOWS WHAT'S GOING ON BEHIND THE
SCENES.
HAS THERE BEEN A COUNTEROFFER
SAYING THAT NOT OKAY, BUT WE CAN
PROBABLY DO WITH X,Y AND Z.
THAT'S THE HEALTHY NEGOTIATION
THAT'S BEEN MISSING AND IF THIS
STARTED UP NOW THAT'S GOOD.
NEIL: YOU MENTIONED KEVIN
HASSETT A LITTLE BIT EARLIER.
ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE
PRESIDENT WHO IS STILL SAYING
THAT THIS WILL ALL WORK OUT.
WHATEVER YOU LOOSE IN THE AND
THE GDP, PRETTY MUCH YOU AND I
HAVE CHATTED IN THE PAST LIKE A
HURRICANE.
PEOPLE GETTING BACK TO THE JOB.
HE IS STILL CONFIDENT WHEN THE
NUMBERS ARE IN THE LAST YEAR WE
WILL HAVE ACHIEVED 3% GROWTH.
HIGHER THAN MOST THOUGHT, BUT IT
COULD FLOW FROM THERE.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> I THINK THAT'S EXACTLY RIGHT.
IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT WE KNOW
ABOUT THE FOURTH QUARTER, WE'VE
COME IN FOURTH QUARTER OF 2018
EURO FOR YOUR 3.1%.
THAT'S MY NUMBER AT THE MOMENT.
THAT'S A FANTASTIC YEAR.
I'M A BIT PUZZLED BY THE EXTREME
PESSIMISM THAT THOSE ARE GOING
INTO A RECESSION.
WE WILL SLOW DOWN AND WE WILL
SLOW MORE RAPIDLY BECAUSE OF THE
SHUTDOWN.
THE REAL ISSUE FOR ME IS
CONFIDENCE.
THE CAPITAL EXPENDITURE PLANS
AND I WORRY ABOUT GENERAL
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DROPPING SO
SHARPLY BETWEEN DECEMBER AND
JANUARY.
THE HOUSEHOLD SECTOR HAS BEEN
THE BULWARK OF THE ECONOMY.
THERE'S SOME THINGS WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON.
>> GROW QUICKLY, REMEMBERING
YOUR FRIEND, JOHN McCAIN, HOW
WOULD HE HAVE HANDLED A SHOT
DOWN?
>> I THINK HE WOULD HAVE DONE IT
ONLY AS A LAST RESORT.
HE FELT QUITE STRONGLY THAT WE
HAVE AN OBLIGATION TO GET PAST
THE DIFFERENCES OF THE TYPE AND
SERVE THE LARGER AMERICAN
PUBLIC.
THE SHUTDOWN IS NOT SERVING THE
LARGER AMERICAN PUBLIC.
IT'S THE LAST THING JOHN
McCAIN WOULD'VE WANTED TO HAVE
HAPPEN.
NEIL: I REMEMBER RIPPING TED
CRUZ.
THOUGH WHO KNOWS.
I JUST WONDERED WHAT YOUR
INSIGHT WAS I'M NOT.
>> HE WOULD HAVE BEEN LESS THAN