>>> WELCOME BACK, I’M ALI VELSHI LIVE IN WILMINGTON, NORTH
CAROLINA.
CAROLINA. THE STATE’S GOVERNOR ISSUING
THIS DIRE WARNING, THE TIME TO
PREPARE IS ALMOST OVER.
FLORENCE’S DAMAGING WINDS AND
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
HITTING THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, MAYBE THURSDAY NIGHT.
YOU’LL CERTAINLY FEEL THE
EFFECTS EARLIER THAN THAT
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG FLORENCE
DRIFTS.
DRIFTS. SOME COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE
MORE THAN THREE FEET OF RAIN.
AT THE SAME TIME, RESIDENTS
COULD BE DEALING WITH TROPICAL
STORM WIND GUSTS FOR UP TO 60
STRAIGHT HOURS AND HURRICANE
WIND GUSTS FOR 24 STRAIGHT
HOURS.
HOURS. THIS PLACE THAT I’M IN RIGHT NOW
MIGHT BE UNDER HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS FOR 24 HOURS.
THINK ABOUT THAT, NEW VIDEO,
THIS IS IT JUST IN FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION
SHOWS YOU HOW MASSIVE THIS STORM
IS.
IS. IT’S SWIRLING AT 130 MILES PER
HOUR ACROSS THE ATLANTIC MOVING
AT ABOUT 17 MILES PER HOUR.
JOINING ME LIVE IS KEN GRAHAM,
HE’S THE DIRECTOR OF THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
KEN, I’VE BEEN WATCHING YOUR
UPDATES REGULARLY.
UPDATES REGULARLY. I WANT TO ASK YOU ONE THING THAT
PEOPLE ARE ASKING ME ON TWITTER.
THERE ARE DIFFERENT TYPES OF
FORECASTS.
FORECASTS. THERE ARE DIFFERENT FORECASTING
MODELS, AND THEY SHOW SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT THINGS.
DIFFERENT THINGS. WHY ARE THERE DIFFERENT
FORECASTS, AND WHY DO WE DECIDE
WHICH ONES WE’RE USING AND NOT
DECIDE ON OTHERS?
>> YEAH, WE GOT DIFFERENT MODELS
WE USE HERE AT THE HURRICANE
CENTER.
CENTER. WE DO GET THOSE DIFFERENT
TRACKS.
TRACKS. WHAT WE DO HERE INSTEAD OF USING
ONE OR TWO WE USE AN ENSEMBLE.
WE GET DOZENS OF MODEL RUNS
WITHIN THERE.
WITHIN THERE. FOR THE MOST PART WE USE A
COMBINATION.
COMBINATION. WE TRY TO USE THAT ENSEMBLE AND
USE AN AVERAGE OF THOSE, AND IT
REALLY HELPS US OUT.
THE THING IS WITH THIS SYSTEM,
WE NEED TO BE CAREFUL LOOKING A
THE THOSE MODELS.
WE NEED TO BE CAREFUL LOOKING AT
THE TRACK IN THIS CASE.
THE STORM IS SO BIG AND THE
IMPACTS SO LARGE, EVEN THOSE
IMPACTS ON HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS, RAIN AND STORM SURGE
EXTEND OUT OF THE CONE.
THAT’S WHAT WE NEED TO BE
CAREFUL OF.
CAREFUL OF. LET’S CONCENTRATE DEFINITELY ON
THESE IMPACTS.
THESE IMPACTS. >> WHAT, IN YOUR OPINION, ARE
THE MOST DANGEROUS ASPECTS OF
THE STORM?
THE STORM? WIND IS DANGEROUS, FLOODING’S
DANGEROUS, STORM SURGE IS
DANGEROUS.
DANGEROUS. WHAT ARE YOUR WORRIED ABOUT
HERE?
HERE? >> JUST EVERY FACETS OF THE
IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A
MAJOR PLAYER.
MAJOR PLAYER. EACH ONE OF THESE IS ANOTHER
FORECAST POINT.
FORECAST POINT. THE CLOSER THOSE ARE TOGETHER
THE SLOWER THE STORM AND AREAS
RECEIVING PROLONGED WINDS OVER
SATURATED SOIL, SO WE’RE LOOKING
AT PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES AND
WINDS.
WINDS. LOOK AT THE RAINFALL FORECAST.
IT’S ABSOLUTELY STAGGERING.
240 TO
240 TO 20 TO 40 INCHES POTENTIALLY.
IT’S NOT JUST A COASTAL EVENT,
THOSE INLAND FLOODS COULD BE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS.
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. WE SEE SIX TO TEN INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
AND LOOKING AT SOME OF THAT
HEAVY RAIN GETTING INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA, VERY DANGEROUS, AND OF
COURSE THE STORM SURGE CAUSING
HALF THE FATALITIES
TRADITIONALLY AND LOOKING BACK
IN HISTORY IN THESE TROPICAL
SYSTEMS AND THE STORM SURGE IS
STAGGERING IN SOME OF THESE
AREAS WITH VALUES 4 TO 9’9" TO
13 FEET.
13 FEET. SO CRITICAL TO PAY ATTENTION TO
WHERE YOU ARE, LISTEN TO THOSE
LOCAL OFFICIALS.
LOCAL OFFICIALS. IF THEY TELL YOU TO GET OUT,
YOU’VE GOT TO GET OUT.
TODAY IS THE LAST DAY.
WE NEED TO PREPARE FOR THIS.
>> IN TERMS OF THE MAGNITUDE OF
THIS STORM AND THE NUMBER OF
PEOPLE AFFECTED BY IT, A FEW
DAYS AGO, PLACES LIKE CHARLOTTE
WERE STILL ON THE PERIPHERY,
COLUMBIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, WAS
GOING TO GET SOME BAD WATER.
ATLANTA WAS IN THE CLEAR, AND
NOW ALL THREE OF THOSE CITIES
MIGHT BE GETTING THE EFFECTS OF
THIS STORM FAIRLY DIRECTLY?
>> AND THAT SHOWS HOW LARGE THIS
SYSTEM IS.
SYSTEM IS. LOOKING AT THIS, 170 MILES AWAY
FROM THAT CENTER WE HAVE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, AND
ANYWHERE IN HERE, THIS IS STILL
OUR CONE, AND THAT REALLY MEANS
TWO-THIRDS OF THE TIME THE
CENTER COULD BE ANY ONE OF THESE
AREAS, AND AS A RESULT THOSE
IMPACTS ARE GOING TO BE
WIDESPREAD, SO IF YOU LOOK AT IT
WITH TIME, IT’S REALLY ABOUT
BEING READY.
BEING READY. IT’S NOT NECESSARILY LOOKING AT
THE VALUES OF WHERE YOU ARE.
THAT COULD CHANGE WITH TIME.
SMALL SHIFTS IN THAT FORECAST OF
JUST THE RAINFALL VALUES, LITTLE
DIFFERENCES CAN MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE ON THE GROUND.
>> RIGHT, AND AGAIN, AS I WAS
TALKING TO THE TOWN MANAGER FROM
CAROLINA BEACH ABOUT 15 MILES
FROM HERE, THERE ARE STILL SOME
PEOPLE WHO THINK THAT STICKING
AROUND HELPS THEM SAVE THEIR
PROPERTY.
PROPERTY. WHEN YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT THIS
TYPE OF WIND, THAT TYPE OF RAIN,
THE FORCE IN WHICH IT COMES IN
AND THE STORM SURGE, NO PERSON
CAN SAVE THEIR PROPERTY?
>> IN THIS CASE YOU HAVE THAT --
WE’RE TALKING 10 FOOT OF STORM
SURGE, 13, THAT PROPERTY GETS
DAMAGED AND DESTROYED.
WITH A STORM SURGE AND THE
FLOODING, SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS
ABOUT SAVING LIVES.
THAT’S OUR MISSION HERE AT THE
WEATHER CENTER AND THROUGHOUT
THE HURRICANE CENTER HERE.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS SAVING YOUR
LIFE.
LIFE. IF THE OFFICIALS TELL YOU TO
LEAVE, YOU’VE GOT TO GET OUT TO
PROTECT YOUR LIFE, SIMPLE AS
THAT.
THAT. >> ALL RIGHT, BASED ON WHAT
YOU’VE SEEN IN PRIOR STORMS,
PARTICULARLY WHEN WE LOOK AT
THINGS LIKE HARVEY, THE LASTING
EFFECT, PEOPLE MIGHT SAY I CAN
MAKE IT THROUGH A FEW DAYS OF
STORMS, NOW WE’RE HAVING PEOPLE
HOPS
HOPS HONESTLY SAY IT WILL BE A MATTER
OF DAYS IF NOT LONGER BEFORE YOU
GET YOUR POWER BACK AND FRESH
WATER.
WATER. >> YEAH, BECAUSE OF THE SLOW
SPEED HERE.
SPEED HERE. THIS IS A HURRICANE.
YOU’VE GOT A HURRICANE RIGHT OFF
THE COAST, AND THAT RIGHT THERE
LOOKING AT THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
THEN FRIDAY MORNING, AND THIS
RIGHT HERE IS SATURDAY.
LOOK HOW LONG WE’RE A HURRICANE
RIGHT ON THE COAST.
WE’RE TALKING ABOUT PROLONGED
WINDS EVEN OUTSIDE THIS CONE.
IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT, ALL THAT
RAIN AND YOU HAVE THE WINDS FOR
SO LONG, THAT’S GOING TO KNOCK
DOWN TREES.
DOWN TREES. YOU’RE GOING TO HAVE INCREDIBLE
POWER OUTAGES, LONG LASTING
EFFECTS.
EFFECTS. IT’S NOT NECESSARILY ABOUT
GETTING THROUGH.
GETTING THROUGH. IT’S THE AFTER EFFECTS.
IT’S THE INDIRECT EFFECTS, AND
THAT CAN ALSO BE DEADLY AS WE
LOSE POWER, YOU’RE HOT, AND ALL