- [Narrator] What would happen if China invaded Taiwan?
(speaking in a foreign language)
- [Narrator] What you're seeing are training drills
performed by the Chinese and Taiwanese militaries.
(missile exploding)
Both sides are preparing for a conflict,
which if it took place,
would likely include the US in some capacity.
Analysts say there are two causes for concern.
One is China's longstanding position
that Taiwan is a part of China
and that it would seek reunification by force if necessary.
(speaking in Chinese)
- [Narrator] The other is its military builduip.
The gravity of a potential war has now become
a commonplace discussion
in the US national security community
and raise questions about how a conflict would unfold.
To answer those questions,
experts look to war games.
- [Computer] Shall we play a game?
- How can it ask you that?
- How about global thermonuclear war?
- [Narrator] Unlike in the movies,
- What the hell?
- [Narrator] In real life war games resemble
complex board games.
In 2022, the think tank,
the Center for Strategic and International Studies
developed a war game for a Chinese amphibious invasion
of Taiwan.
Most of the war games that have been done
about a conflict between the US
and China have been classified.
- Rumors indicate very adverse outcomes,
but the assumptions and the mechanics are not well known
because they're classified.
We wanted to do something
that was entirely unclassified
so we could talk to a very broad audience.
- [Narrator] Separated from China's southeastern coast
by 100 miles of sea,
Taiwan is a self ruled island that China claims as its own.
The Central Intelligence agency
estimates that Chinese leader Xi Jinping
has set 2027 as the deadline
for his military to be ready to take the island.
CSIS based its war games
on a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan
taking place in 2026.
CSIS's war game is a turn-based strategy simulation.
After each turn is played,
players turn to combat result tables
and computer programs to calculate combat outcomes.
Today, CSIS research assistant Chris Park
will be helping facilitate gameplay.
Players are divided into two sides.
The red team represents China.
The blue team represents the US and its allies.
Of the 24 scenarios played,
the version you are about to see is the most likely.
- As the game begins,
the Chinese are moving their ships around Taiwan
and their aircraft over Taiwan.
The United States is responding with its own aircraft,
with its bombers to attack the Chinese naval forces
and also with its surface ships
that have been sent forward
as part of the US effort to deter the conflict.
The United States also has submarines in the streets.
- [Narrator] CSIS's war game is played with three maps.
Two operational maps represent the regional operations
of the US and its allies
and the Chinese forces respectively.
Another ground map is used
for the operations on the island.
- The Chinese have now invaded the island.
They've landed forces in the south.
Strategically, it'd be better to land in the north.
That's where the capital is.
That's where much of the industry is.
The problem is that most
of the Taiwanese military capability also in the north,
that makes it very difficult to invade there.
Several of our teams try to do that
in some of the iterations,
it was just too difficult.
There were too many defending forces,
so most of the Chinese teams decided to land in the south.
The challenge there is to occupy the country
and to take the capital,
they have to fight their way up the entire island.
The campaign looks much like the allied campaign
in Italy during the Second World War, bit by bit,
very difficult terrain.
Here we see that the Chinese have landed.
First we have troops landing on the beach.
There are only a handful of good beaches
on Taiwan for landing troops.
These are indicated on the map
and then around the airfield
we have Chinese parachute and air mobile troops,
that is troops coming in by helicopter.
And the purpose of doing that is
if they can capture the airfield intact,
then they can fly in.
Troops and supplies are not dependent on ships
and craft bringing troops and supplies across the beach.
- [Narrator] After both sides play their turns,
the game is paused for an adjudication
in which the losses for each side are calculated.
- What we see is that the Chinese amphibious units
have successfully gone ashore.
They've moved 10 kilometers inland
and they eliminated one Taiwanese battalion
out of the defenders.
The air mobile and parachute troops were less successful.
That's a much more difficult operation.
They landed around the airfield,
eliminated one defending Taiwanese battalion,
but they lost three of their own battalions.
This is a very risky operation
and they have not captured the airfield yet.
- [Narrator] Once the losses
for the last turn are calculated,
the second turn is played with dramatic results.
- There's not much change on the US side.
Tremendous change on the Chinese side.
Let's take a look.
The US is continuing to focus on attacking
the Chinese ships around Taiwan,
trying to get through the picket screen there
to get at the amphibious ships.
The submarines are still in the straits.
The one that was in the straits last turn
has moved back to base in Japan, Yakuza to reload.
The squadron that was outside the straits has moved in
and a new squadron has moved forward.
Now looking at the Chinese side here,
we have a lot of change
and the big thing is that the Chinese
have decided to strike Japan.
And they've decided to strike in a major way
rather than just strike one.
Basically decided to strike all of Japanese bases
with Japanese aircraft and US aircraft.
What you're seeing here is the flow
of Taiwanese forces from the north
where they were initially stationed
protecting the capitol.
Now they're coming down both coasts to engage
the Chinese landing troops in the south.
There are more amphibious units
that have come across the beach here.
They're attacking the Taiwanese defenders.
There are a few more air mobile parachute units
that have landed around the airfield.
They've surrounded the Taiwanese,
which are holding out on the airfield,
but both of these Chinese forces
are attacking the Taiwanese.
- [Narrator] After the second turn is played,
the second adjudication round
takes stock of the losses on both sides.
- This has been a massive term.
Both sides have taken very heavy casualties.
The results are that the Chinese
lose one battalion over here
and the Taiwanese also lose one defending battalion.
Around the airfield,
the Taiwanese lose one defending battalion
and the Chinese lose one attacking battalion.
- [Narrator] We now fast forward about three weeks
to the last turn of the game.
- [Mark] The Chinese have moved up the east coast,
but they've bumped into Taiwanese units
that are coming down the east coast.
That movement has been slowed by the Chinese aircraft,
which have been attacking the transportation system,
but eventually those troops get there
and they've formed a pretty solid line on the east coast.
The Chinese were able to clear the airport
where the Taiwanese have been holding out
and have moved forward here.
In the center, they've bumped into
a Taiwanese defensive line
and that has been reinforced by fortifications.
They've moved into the city down here in the south.
The reason for moving into the city is to capture the port.
- [Narrator] Finally, we arrive at the last adjudication
and the end of the game.
- This scenario concludes
with the Chinese established ashore,
but unable to expand their forces there.
Much of the Chinese amphibious fleet
has been destroyed.
The United States and its partners
have been attacking those ships relentlessly,
so their ability to bring troops and supplies
onto the island has declined.
Over time, those forces will weaken.
The Taiwanese will push them back.
Most of them will end up as prisoners of war.
When we ran this game, we considered it a minor
US coalition victory.
It was a minor victory
because it was gonna take a lot of time
and there was going to be a lot of damage to Taiwan,
but it was a US and coalition victory
because the Chinese were unable
to establish themselves on Taiwan
and Taiwan endured as an autonomous
and democratic entity.
- [Narrator] Although the US and its allies
came out on top in this scenario,
the US was not always successful.
- There were some scenarios
where the United States did lose the conflict.
A key requirement is the use of bases in Japan.
The United States has many bases there.
If it cannot use those bases,
then it has no way of getting its fight
or in attack aircraft into the fight.
- [Narrator] Regardless of the scenario,
any iteration of CSIS's war games found
that the cost for all sides would be devastating.
- The big takeaway from the project is that
the United States and its coalition partners can sustain
an autonomous and democratic Taiwan,
but it comes at great cost to the Taiwanese economy.
The US and its partners lose very heavily,
but so do the Chinese,
enough so that the grip of the Chinese Communist Party
might be endangered.
(soft music)