>>> THIS WEEKEND OFFERED SOME Always Discreet Boutique.
>>> THIS WEEKEND OFFERED SOME
GOOD NEWS IN OUR PANDEMIC ERA.
AMONG OTHER THINGS, BROADWAY IS
REOPENING.
YESTERDAY, TICKETS WENT BACK ON
SALE FOR NEW YORKS
LONGEST-RUNNING MUSICAL, "THE
PHANTOM OF THE OPERA."
PERFORMANCES BEGIN THIS FALL.
OTHER BIG HITS, LIKE "HAMILTON"
ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME SALES
NEXT WEEK AND I CANNOT WAIT TO
GIVE THEM ALL MY MONEY.
>>> ALSO, LOS ANGELES COUNTY
ENTERED THE YELLOW TIER OF COVID
RESTRICTIONS, THIS WEEKEND.
THATS THE LOWEST TIER.
THAT MEANS EXPANDED CAPACITY AT
RESTAURANTS, GYMS, MOVIE
THEATERS, AMUSEMENT PARKS, THEME
PARKS, SPORTS VENUES, AND
MUSEUMS IN AND AROUND L.A.
THE POLITICS OF PANDEMIC
RESTRICTIONS AND REOPENING HAVE
BEEN ANYTHING BUT SMOOTH.
A NEW BOOK, OUT THIS WEEK, MIGHT
SHED SOME LIGHT ON WHY THE
PANDEMICS BEEN SO ROUGH.
"DOOM, THE POLITICS OF
CATASTROPHE" ANALYZES THE
HISTORY OF DISASTER AND EXAMINES
THE NETWORKS THAT GET DESTROYED
IN THE CHAOS.
A PANDEMIC IS NOT JUST MADE OF A
DISEASE.
ITS, ALSO, THE SOCIAL NETWORKS
THAT THE DISEASE PUTS STRESS ON.
COVIDS JUST THE VEHICLE.
THE REAL PANDEMIC IS OUR
RESPONSE TO IT.
JOINING US, NOW, IS THE AUTHOR
OF "DOOM."
NIALL FERGUSON.
HE IS ALSO A SENIOR FELLOW AT
THE HOOVER INSTITUTION.
MR. FERGUSON, GOOD EVENING.
WELCOME.
>> GREAT TO BE WITH YOU.
THANKS SO MUCH.
>> I WANT TO START WITH A LINE
FROM YOUR BOOK, ON PAGE FIVE,
THAT I THINK FRAMES A LOT OF
WHAT YOU DISCUSS IN THE BOOK.
YOU WRITE, A PANDEMIC IS MADE UP
OF A NEW PATHOGEN AND THE SOCIAL
NETWORKS THAT IT ATTACKS.
WE CANNOT UNDERSTAND THE SCALE
OF THE CONTAGION BY STUDYING
ONLY THE VIRUS, ITSELF, BECAUSE
THE VIRUS WILL INFECT ONLY AS
MANY PEOPLE AS SOCIAL NETWORKS
ALLOW IT TO.
AT THE SAME TIME, A CATASTROPHE
LAYS BARE THE SOCIETIES AND
STATES THAT IT STRIKES.
IT IS A MOMENT OF TRUTH, OF
REVELATION.
EXPOSING SOME AS FRAGILE.
OTHERS, AS RESILIENT.
AND OTHERS, AS ANTI-FRAGILE.
ABLE NOT JUST TO WITHSTAND
DISASTER, BUT TO BE STRENGTHENED
BY IT.
ANTI-FRAGILE.
I DONT KNOW IF IVE SEEN MUCH,
IN THE LAST YEAR, THAT HAS
LOOKED VERY ANTI-FRAGILE, TO ME.
BUT WHAT HAVE YOU SEEN?
>> WELL, THE UNITED STATES
CERTAINLY DID NOT HANDLE THIS
DISASTER WELL.
AND I THINK ITS IMPORTANT TO
REALIZE THAT THIS ISNT THE
FIRST DISASTER THAT WE HAVENT
HANDLED WELL.
IN FACT, IF YOU THINK BACK OVER
20 YEARS, WE DIDNT REALLY
HANDLE 9/11 WELL.
THE FINANCIAL CRISIS.
YOU CANT REALLY SAY THAT WAS A
HUGE-SUCCESS STORY.
BUT I DONT THINK IT WAS
INEVITABLE AND I DONT THINK THE
UNITED STATES HAS ALWAYS
MISHANDLED CRISES.
JUST TO GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE OF
WHAT WE COULD HAVE DONE.
LOOK AT TAIWAN, WHICH I THINK IS
A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THE
ANTI-FRAGILE VARIETY.
THE TAIWANESE REACTED EXTREMELY
SWIFTLY TO THE THREAT, BACK IN
JANUARY OF 2020.
THEY RAMPED UP TESTING FOR THIS
NEW CORONAVIRUS.
THEY INTRODUCED A SYSTEM OF --
OF CONTACT TRACING, USING
SMARTPHONES.
AND THEY, ALSO, HAD A SYSTEM OF
ISOLATING PEOPLE WHO WERE
INFECTED OR THOUGHT TO BE
INFECTED.
RESULT?
12 PEOPLE, IN TOTAL, HAVE DIED
OF COVID IN TAIWAN.
SO, WE KNOW THAT THIS COULD HAVE
BEEN DONE, A LOT BETTER.
OUR DEATH TOLL IS OVER HALF A
MILLION.
AND ITS NOT OVER, BECAUSE I
GUESS ABOUT 700 PEOPLE ARE STILL
DYING EVERY DAY FROM COVID.
>> YEAH.
>> SO, WE HAVE TO ASK OURSELVES,
WHAT EXACTLY WENT WRONG?
AND WHY DID THE UNITED STATES
TURN OUT TO DO SO BADLY IN THE
INITIAL PHASE?
AND THEN, TURN OUT TO GET THE
CRUCIAL THING, VACCINATION,
RELATIVELY RIGHT.
I MEAN, THE U.S. HAS
OUTPERFORMED OTHER COUNTRIES
WHEN ITS COME TO VACCINATION.
THOUGH, IT STILL HAS SOME WAY TO
GO.
REMEMBER, ONLY A THIRD OF ADULTS
HAVE BEEN FULLY VACCINATED, SO
FAR.
SO THATS KIND OF HOW TO THINK
ABOUT THIS.
WE COULD HAVE DONE SO MUCH
BETTER.
AND WE NEED TO LEARN FROM THIS
BECAUSE THIS WILL NOT BE THE
LAST DISASTER WE FACE, JOSHUA.
>> THERE ARE THREE CONCEPTS THAT
YOU LAY OUT IN THE BOOK THAT
MIGHT HELP CHANGE THE WAY WE
THINK ABOUT THESE KINDS OF
CATASTROPHES.
I LOVE THE TERMS.
A GRAY RHINO, A BLACK SWAN, AND
A DRAGON KING.
FOR A SCI-FI FANTASY NUT LIKE
ME, THESE ARE UP MY ALLEY.
SOMETHING THAT IS DANGEROUS,
OBVIOUS, HIGHLY PROBABLE.
A BLACK SWAN, A HUGELY
SURPRISING EVENT THAT WOULD SEEM
IMPOSSIBLE.
THAT CAME UP IN OUR CONVERSATION
WITH CHRIS VOSS A FEW WEEKS AGO.
AND THEN, A DRAGON KING, WHICH
IS AN EXTREME EVENT THAT STILL
EXHIBITS A DEGREE OF
PREDICTABILITY.
HOW DO THESE THREE CONCEPTS HELP
US THINK THROUGH THE WAY THAT WE
RESPOND TO THE NEXT COVID?
THE NEXT PANDEMIC IN AMERICAS
FUTURE?
>> YEAH.
IT SOUNDS A BIT LIKE A CRAZY
ZOO, DOESNT IT?
BUT -- BUT COVID.
A PANDEMIC WAS A GRAY RHINO.
WE SAW THIS COMING.
OR AT LEAST WE SHOULDVE.
THERE WERE ANY NUMBER OF PEOPLE
WHO PREDICTED THAT THIS WOULD BE
THE NEXT-BIG DISASTER.
BILL GATES IS ONE OF THE MOST
FAMOUS BUT HE WAS ONLY ONE OF
DOZENS OF PEOPLE, WHO WROTE
ABOUT THIS.
AND YET, ODDLY, WHEN IT ACTUALLY
STRUCK, WE ACTED LIKE IT WAS
COMPLETELY UNEXPECTED.
IT WAS A BLACK SWAN.
I HEARD PEOPLE USE WORDS LIKE,
UNPRECEDENTED.
AND -- AND YET, IT WAS ANYTHING
BUT THAT.
WE HAVE HAD MULTIPLE PANDEMICS,
THROUGHOUT HISTORY.
THE UNITED STATES DEALT WITH A
REALLY HUGE RESPIRATORY DISEASE
PANDEMIC IN 1918-19 AND
INFLUENZA.
AND OF COURSE, WE GRAPPLED
PRETTY INEPTLY, IT MUST BE SAID
AT FIRST WITH HIV AIDS.
ANOTHER GLOBAL PANDEMIC.
SO WE REALLY SHOULD NOT HAVE
BEEN SURPRISED FOR WHEN THE
PANDEMIC STRUCK.
IN FACT, WE WERE, ON PAPER,
HIGHLY PREPARED FOR IT.
AND THIS IS ONE OF THE ODD
THINGS ABOUT THIS.
THAT THE U.S. RANKED, IN 2019,
AMONGST THE COUNTRIES BEST
PREPARED FOR A PANDEMIC.
AND ON PAPER, WE HAVE LOTS OF
PANDEMIC-PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND
ANY NUMBER OF POWERPOINT DECKS.
THERE WAS A PERSON AT THE
DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN
SERVICES, WHOSE ONE JOB IT WAS
TO DO PANDEMIC PREPAREDNESS.
AND YET, WHEN IT ACTUALLY
STRUCK, SUDDENLY, IT WASNT A
GRAY RHINO.
IT WAS A BLACK SWAN.
BUT THE INTERESTING THING IS
THAT I THINK ITS ALSO BECOME
ONE OF THOSE DRAGON-KING EVENTS
THAT ACTUALLY HAS CONSEQUENCES,
EVEN GREATER THAN THE BODY
CONES.
AND I THINK THE HISTORICAL
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE MUCH MORE
THAN JUST THE 3 OR 4 OR 5
MILLION PEOPLE THAT IT
ULTIMATELY KILLS AROUND THE
WORLD.
ITS CONSEQUENCES WILL BE, I
DONT KNOW, A BIT LIKE THE WORLD
WARS.
THEYLL EXTEND FAR BEYOND THE
DEATH TOLL, TO INCLUDE
FUNDAMENTAL-POLITICAL CHANGE AND
SOCIAL CHANGE.
>> THE BOOK IS CALLED "DOOM THE