CME gaps!
They're quite mysterious in the world of investing when it comes to Bitcoin.
We're going to talk about what they are and the lie that you've been told.
Let's get it!
Welcome to BitBoy Crypto!
My name is Ben.
Today, we're going to be talking about CME gaps,
what they are.
We're going to look at the history to find out if people have been lying to you
when they tell you that they almost always fill.
So, here we are on cmegroup.com.
This is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange website.
Now, when you look here at this,
it's got all kinds of different things you can invest in here.
You guys know my favorite.
Everybody knows what I want to invest in.
Soybean futures!
Let's check out what's going on with the old soy boys.
Man, I tell you what, I want to buy some of these right now.
Who doesn't want to buy some soybeans?
But in all seriousness, when it comes here to the CME,
you've got to understand this is a traditional market,
which means that it closes.
It has certain hours.
And check out what the hours are.
So you guys can see here the CME products.
And I don't know if this is exactly right
because I feel like I remember them opening a little bit earlier on Sunday.
But for all intents and purposes, this will show the point.
Sunday 5 PM to Friday 5:45 PM
It's not 24/7.
It's like 24/5 and a quarter.
Something like that is what it actually works out to be, I believe.
But the point is,
they're closed all day on Saturday and they have a close on Friday.
So this means that in the world of crypto where Bitcoin is 24/7,
and when you look at any Bitcoin chart,
you're going to see a variety of charts,
you're going to see the 1-minute, the 1-hour, the 2-day chart,
but there's never a gap between an open and a close
because the entire market is fluid because it's 24/7.
But in a world where you have an opening price and a closing price with a gap in the middle,
that means that that opens us up for what we call the dreaded CME gaps.
Now, let's get into what some of these are here.
We have one gap at $35,270.
We have another gap at $28,750.
Then we've got a little bitty gap down here at about $11,350.
Then we have a big gap down here at about $9,700 supposedly.
Now, this is why a lot of people thought that we got down in that $10,000 to $14,000 range.
We get pushed down to the bottom.
What you have to understand here about these gaps is that, traditionally,
these gaps get filled.
And you guys can see a lot of these different times here where they got filled.
So we had a gap right here.
These blue lines are gaps that got filled, as you guys can see here.
This gap was around $18,400.
This is back in 2020.
And boom, look, we filled it right over here much later in September of 2022.
You guys can see how long it takes these gaps to fill.
Sometimes it takes a really long time.
Sometimes they get filled pretty quickly.
But the question is,
what is this gap getting filled?
Let's take this one for instance here.
When you look at this,
here was the closing price on Friday,
and here is the opening price on Sunday.
This gap in the middle between these two wicks,
this is what we call the gap not getting filled.
This means that in between $23,855 to $26,180.
Remember, CME,
this is an institutional level platform.
Banks are using this.
Hedge funds are using this.
Citadel is using this.
We'll see in a second.
They have orders at all these different levels.
They have brokers that have orders.
These orders need to be filled.
For their calculation strategy
for how much money they make at the end of the year,
they're counting in getting certain numbers of orders filled.
And when they don't get this filled,
the market tends to act like a buoy
and pushes down in the case of a gap that's lower to fill it and then bounce back up.
So all those institutional orders got filled.
So that is what we say when we mean filling the gap.
Now, we're only going to go back to 2020 with these gaps here.
Now, why?
Well, because, originally, there were the Cboe Futures
and those launched in 2017.
And those were also gaps that had to get filled as well.
But for the CME that we're looking at here,
like, these haven't been around for too terribly long of a time.
So it doesn't go back to 2012 where we can see gaps getting filled,
or anything like this.
I think maybe they launched in 2020.
Maybe I have that number wrong, but I think that's about 2019, 2020,
somewhere around there.
So here's the point.
A lot of these gaps, as you guys can see here,
a lot of these gaps have still not been filled.
We showed you some over here.
We have one, two, three--
we basically have four gaps right now that haven't been filled.
Five gaps counting this one at $19K.
When we talk about the $19,990 CME gap,
this is what we're talking about right here.
Right in this zone.
This is a new one that has not been filled yet.
So when I've been so adamant that we're probably going to come down here,
bounce off of this line and go back up.
that's why.
Now, here's a really interesting thing.
So back when we were covering the story back in 2020,
we used to talk about this,
there was a number that people put out.
98% of gaps fill.
Well, according to our research,
for all of the research that we've done between all of these gaps,
it's actually now down to about 89%.
It's less than 9 out of 10 of these gaps now fill.
Why is that important?
Well, No. 1, all the gaps to the upside are always going to fill with Bitcoin.
Now we can't guarantee that,
but what we can tell you about that is,
throughout the history of Bitcoin, every four years, we've seen a higher high.
So what that means is, as long as we continue on that same pattern,
these ones on the upside are always going to fill.
Meanwhile, when you look at these on the downside,
I don't think we're probably, at this point, ever going to fill in $9,665 gap.
I don't think we're potentially ever going to fill this one here,
even though it's just a tiny little bitty $25 gap.
It makes sense that we may not fill that one,
but I don't think we're going to fill that one
because I don't think Bitcoin, once we go through another bull run,
is going to come back to these levels.
So what this means is,
since they're all going to fill on the top side,
this means that more and more and more of these gaps on the bottom side
have not been getting filled.
So, while we're looking at this number and saying 89% of them fill,
well, it's starting to be more like 80% on the downside.
Now, 80% is still an overwhelming majority,
but it's not the same as 98%,
this number that we were lied to about for so many years
that people always refer back.
And were they trying to lie? Not necessarily.
But it's just information transfers,
where somebody says to somebody it's 98%.
When they looked at it, it was true.
Someone else says it.
It becomes kind of a meme.
People don't even understand it's not true anymore.
Now, the question is, are we going to fill this $19,990 gap?
It depends.
If we come up to this gap,
if we fill this gap up here,
at $28,000,
or, God forbid, we were to come up to this gap at $35,000 and fill it,
we may never get down here below this again.
Now, the average price for this year, for this bear market,
is probably going to end up being somewhere around $21,000, $22,000.
You look at the $19,000 gap that came up this year and you say,
"You know what? That's right under the average price for the year."
You come here and you look at the accumulation year,
the beginning of 2020, end of 2019,
what was the average price for Bitcoin?
Probably somewhere between $7,000 and $10,000.
And look right there, $9,665.
When it started running, it never came back to this number.
Are we going to see the same thing with this $19,000?
I think it's definitely possible.
I'm not going to tell you it's probable.
I still think it's about a 50/50 chance that we fill this gap.
And, guys, don't forget, if you enjoyed this video,
don't forget to subscribe to the BitBoy Crypto YouTube channel.
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And you're watching me too.
The long and the short of it, guys, no pun intended, here is
these gaps are important.
They do fill most of the time.
They don't fill every time.
The new number we've got is closer to 89%.
It's no longer 98%.
I would apply that to the downside.
I say on the downside, it's more like 80%,
and the topside, it's more like 100%, to what we've seen so far.
So take that information and do with it what you will.
If you want to look up this chart on CoinMarketCap,
it is BTC1!.
And you can find it from there.
That's all I got.
Be blessed.
BitBoy out.