ENCIRCLE KYIV AT A MINIMUM AND
STALL THE ATTACK ON ODESA, WHICH
IS ALL GOOD NEWS.
THEY STILL LACK GAME-CHANGER
WEAPONS SYSTEMS.
THEY DON'T HAVE VERY GOOD AIR
DEFENSE CAPABILITY, PARTICULARLY
AGAINST CRUISE MISSILES LAUNCHED
BY AIRCRAFT.
THEY DON'T HAVE AN ANTI-SHIP
MISSILE CAPABILITY TO TRY AND
STRIKE THE RUSSIAN FLEET IN THE
SEA OF AZOV AND THE PLAQUEBLACK
THEY DON'T HAVE ENOUGH REMOTELY
PILOTED LETHAL DRONES IN THERE.
THE SWITCHBLADE 600, ANOTHER
MAGIC BIT OF TECHNOLOGY, COULD
ALSO MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
SO I THINK UKRAINE IS DOING VERY
WELL, BUT, LOOK, THERE IS ZERO
POSSIBILITY OF PUTIN SAYING TO
HIS GENERALS, "OKAY, BACK OUT OF
HERE.
UNRAVEL THE MESS YOU'VE MADE."
THERE IS ZERO POSSIBILITY OF,
YOU KNOW, IN THE COURSE OF A
MONTH, CLAIMING THE RUSSIANS
HAVE BEEN FOUGHT TO A
STANDSTILL.
IT TOOK THEM TWO YEARS TO TAKE
DOWN CHECHNYA.
GROZNY WAS OBLITERATED BEFORE IT
WAS DONE.
THE STRATEGIC HEART OF THE
RUSSIAN ATTEMPT NOW TO TAKE
UKRAINE IS TERROR ATTACKS ON
CIVILIANS.
WE MAY NOT HAVE SEEN THE EXTENT
OF IT YET.
THEY HAVE NOT USED MASS
ARTILLERY.
5,000, 10,000 ROUNDS A DAY
AGAINST SOME OF THESE CITIES.
IT IS A VERY GRIM SITUATION FOR
THE UKRAINIANS STILL.
>> YUP.
GENERAL, IF YOU WERE ADVISING
PRESIDENT BIDEN, WHAT WOULD YOU
TELL HIM THE UNITED STATES HAS
TO GET INTO UKRAINE IMMEDIATELY?
>> WELL, WE CAN'T BUILD, YOU
KNOW, A SIMILAR MILITARY FORCE
IN UKRAINE TO CHALLENGE THE
RUSSIANS IN THE AIR AND ON THE
GROUND AND ON THE SEA.
IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.
IT TAKES A YEAR, FOR EXAMPLE, TO
DEPLOY PATRIOT MISSILE AND GET A
MAINTENANCE PACKAGE AND TRAINING
AND OPERATORS.
SOME OF THIS ISN'T GOING TO
CHANGE.
SECRETARY AUSTIN IS OUT THERE
TRYING TO GET S-300 ANTI-MISSILE
SYSTEMS OUT OF OTHER NATO
COUNTRIES DELIVERED.
THERE MAY BE SOME NEW TECHNOLOGY
APPEARING, BUT I THINK THE
BIGGEST THING PRESIDENT BIDEN
HAS DONE IS POLITICAL UNITY,
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS, AND NOW I
THINK WHAT WE'RE GOING TO SEE
NATO DO IS BUILD A STRATEGIC
THREAT TO THE RUSSIANS IN THE
EASTERN BLOCK OF COUNTRIES.
WE'RE GOING TO SEE ENHANCED
FORWARD PRESENCE BY THE FRENCH,
BY THE GERMANS, BY THE UNITED
STATES AND THE BALTIC STATES,
POLAND, ROMANIA, SO THAT PUTIN'S
GENERALS TELL HIM, HEY, LOOK,
YOU HAVE COMMITTED 60% OF OUR
GROUND COMBAT POWER AND HALF OUR
AIR POWER TO FIGHTING IN
UKRAINE.
NOW NATO IS A STRATEGIC THREAT
TO US IN OTHER LOCALS.
THAT'S PROBABLY THE NEXT STEP.
>> ELLIOTT, LET ME ASK YOU WHAT
YOUR THOUGHTS ARE, WHERE WE ARE
RIGHT NOW.
YOU OBVIOUSLY A FEW WEEKS AGO
TALKED ABOUT WHAT THE WEST
NEEDED TO DO TO MOVE BEYOND
PHASE ONE.
SEEMS LEADERS FOLLOWED A LOT OF
YOUR SUGGESTIONS.
WHERE ARE WE RIGHT NOW IN YOUR
MIND, AND WHAT IS THE NEXT PHASE
IN HELPING THE UKRAINIANS DEFEND
THEMSELVES AGAINST THIS
UNVATION?
>> I GUESS I WOULD SAY THE MOST
IMPORTANT THING RIGHT NOW IS TO
DO THE THINGS WE'RE DOING BUT TO
DO THEM AT THE GREATEST POSSIBLE
SCALE WITH THE GREATEST POSSIBLE
URGENCY.
I THINK IT IS VERY HARD TO TELL
FROM OUTSIDE WHETHER OR NOT
THAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENING.
IT'S CLEAR THE RUSSIANS HAVE
BEEN -- PEOPLE USED THE WORD
"STALEMATED," BUT THIS IS A
GRINDING WAR OF ATTRITION.
OF COURSE, WE PAY ATTENTION TO
THE SUFFERINGS OF THE UKRAINIAN
PEOPLE, WHICH IS APPROPRIATE.
BUT THE RUSSIAN ARMY IS GETTING
GROUND UP.
LET'S REMEMBER THEY'VE GOT --
ESTIMATES ARE ACTUALLY 75% OF
THEIR COMBAT POWER DEPLOYED IS
GETTING CHEWED UP, AS WELL.
IT IS GOING TO BE MORE DYNAMIC,
I THINK, THAN PEOPLE THINK IT
COULD BE.
THE MAIN THING IS CONTINUE TO
POUR IN THE AID.
POUR ON THE SANCTIONS.
AS GENERAL McCAFFREY SAID.
>> WHAT YOU'RE SAYING IS IT IS A
HUMANITARIAN DISASTER FOR THE
UKRAINIAN PEOPLE.
IT IS A MILITARY DISASTER FOR
THE RUSSIAN NATION.
>> IT IS A -- IT IS MORE THAN A
MILITARY DISASTER FOR THE
RUSSIAN NATION.
BECAUSE I THINK WHAT YOU'RE
SEEING NOW ARE THINGS THAT WILL
REDUCE RUSSIA TO BEING BASICALLY
A THIRD-RATE POWER.
NOT JUST TALKING ABOUT THE
SANCTIONS.
I'M TALKING ABOUT THE THINGS
LIKE LITERALLY HUNDREDS OF
THOUSANDS OF TECHNICALLY SKILLED
RUSSIANS FLEEING THEIR COUNTRY
BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT TO BE
PART OF THIS.
>> HEIDI, PRESIDENT PUTIN IS
FRUSTRATED BY THE WAY THIS WAR
HAS GONE.
I THINK HE THOUGHT IT'D BE A
QUICK VICTORY.
HE IS INCREASINGLY ISOLATED, IF
YOU READ REPORTS AND LISTEN TO
THE PENTAGON'S INTELLIGENCE.
WHICH LEADS TO THE QUESTION OF
WHAT HE MAY DO NEXT TO WIN THIS
WAR, WHATEVER WINNING IT LOOKS
LIKE IN HIS EYES.
WHAT DO YOU EXPECT?
DOES THIS SLOG CONTINUE FROM
HIM, AS UKRAINIANS BEGIN TO TAKE
BACK NOW SOME GROUND FAR FROM
WHAT PRESIDENT PUTIN EXPECTED,
AS SOME OF THE GENERALS, CURRENT
AND FORMER, SPEAK OUT PUBLICLY
IN RUSSIA AGAINST THIS WAR,
SOMETHING WE APPROPRIATE WOULDPR
HAVE EXPECTED A COUPLE WEEKS
AGO.
WHAT DO YOU EXPECT TO SEE NEXT
FROM HIM?
>> I THINK ONE OF THE AREAS
THAT -- WHERE WE HAVEN'T SEEN
THE BALL DROP YET IS ON CYBER.
YOU'VE HAD A LOT OF TELEGRAPHING
FROM THE WHITE HOUSE THAT
COMPANIES SHOULD BE PREPARED.
THAT, YOU KNOW, WE SHOULD MAKE
SURE OUR DEFENSES FOR ANY KIND
OF A CYBER INTRUSION ARE, YOU
KNOW, FULLY FUNCTIONAL.
A FRIEND OF MINE IS LIKE,
PEOPLE, SAVE YOUR WORK.
IT'S TIME TO MAKE SURE THAT
YOU'RE ALL PREPARED FOR THE BALL
THAT HASN'T DROPPED.
>> WELL, THERE'S TWO QUESTIONS
TO THAT.
NUMBER ONE, A LOT OF COMPANIES
ARE STILL INVESTED IN RUSHSIA,
STILL DOING WORK IN RUSSIA, A
LOT OF COMPANIES.
I WONDER HOW EASY IT IS TO SORT
OF -- A LOT OF THEM, IT IS NOT
EASY TO EXTRACT THEMSELVES, FOR
WHATEVER REASONS.
THEN TIM PACT
THEN THE IMPACT THIS CONFLICT IS
HAVING ON ECONOMIES AROUND THE
WORLD.
>> AT THIS SUMMIT, YOU'RE GOING
TO HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL
SANCTIONS ANNOUNCED AND SOME
COORDINATION ON SANCTIONS, WHICH
IS REALLY, REALLY IMPORTANT.
YOU KNOW, IF YOU FIND ACME, YOU
KNOW, COMPANY OWNED BY AN
OLIGARCH IN ONE COUNTRY, YOU CAN
PASS THE BATON FROM SWITZERLAND
TO MONACO TO A DIFFERENT ONE TO
ACTUALLY TRY AND TRACK DOWN MORE
EH FELKTFFECTIVELY THE DIFFERENT
ASSETS.
THE ECONOMY IN RUSSIA, THE
PROJECTIONS ARE STARTING TO COME
OUT NOW THAT YOU'RE GOING TO
SEE, YOU KNOW, A 15% HIT TO GDP
NEXT YEAR.
PART OF THAT IS THE BRAIN DRAIN
THAT WAS REFERRED TO.
PART OF IT IS THAT YOU'VE SEEN A
NUMBER OF COMPANIES, LIKE THE
BOEING AND AIRBUS, THE MAJOR OIL
SERVICING COMPANIES.
YOU HAVE A LOT OF OLD WELLS IN
RUSSIA THAT NEED TO HAVE THOSE
SERVICING COMPANIES THERE.
YOU KNOW, COMPANIES ARE STILL
OPERATING ON THE GROUND AND ARE
GETTING ENORMOUS PRESSURE FROM
THEIR SHAREHOLDERS RIGHT NOW.
IF YOU'RE GOING TO COMMIT TO
SOMETHING LIKE AN ESG, YOU KNOW,
STANDARD, THEN WHAT ARE YOU
DOING IN RUSSIA?
THAT'S WHAT SHAREHOLDERS ARE
STARTING TO ASK RIGHT NOW.
>> RIGHT, SURE.
>> PETER, IT IS A FASCINATING
THEY THINK
THING.
JOE BIDEN SEEMS TO BE IN A
CONSTANT BALANCING ACT AND HAS
BEEN THE LAST MONTH.
AT THE BEGINNING, 26% OF
AMERICANS WANTED THE UNITED
STATES INVOLVED IN A SIGNIFICANT
WAY.
NOW, THE NUMBERS HAVE SHOT UP,
AND THE MAJORITY WANT A NO FLY
ZONE WHICH, OF COURSE, MOST
MILITARY PEOPLE BELIEVE WOULD
START WORLD WAR III.
BUT IT'S THE SAME WITH EUROPE,
SAME WITH NATO, PARTNERS.
MANY OF THEM WANT TO HOLD BACK,
BUT YOU LOOK AT THE COUNTRIES ON
THE FRONT LINE, THEY WANT THE
UNITED STATES TO DO MORE.
THEY WANT TO SEND THE MIGs.
YOU LOOK AT ESTONIA, LATVIA,
LITHUANIA, THEY WANT MORE
TROOPS.
IT RALLYEALLY IS A BALANCING ACT
JOE BIDEN.
DOMESTICALLY, HE IS NEVER DOING
ENOUGH AT HOME OR IN EUROPE,
WHERE HE IS BEING PULLED IN BOTH
DIRECTIONS.
>> IT IS.
HE IS TRYING, OF COURSE, TO BOTH
KEEP THE ALLIANCE TOGETHER, TO
MAKE A POLITICAL STATEMENT, TO
RESUPPLY THE UKRAINIANS AS BEST
HE CAN, WITHOUT GOING SO FAR AS
A TRIPLE WIRE THAT WE DON'T KNOW
WHERE IT IS, THAT WOULD GET US
INTO AN ELSESCALATORY PHASE WITH
RUSSIA.
DOES RUSSIA GET TO A POINT WHERE
THEY FEEL THE NEED TO LASH OUT
AT NATO ALLIES IN A WAY THAT'D
GET US TO THE WORLD WAR III
SCENARIO?
STILL A NUCLEAR POWER
SUPERPOWER.
NO MATTER HOW BADLY THEY'RE
DOING IN UKRAINE, CAN DO AN
AWFUL LOT OF DAMAGE TO US AND
OUR ALLIES IF WE WERE TO GO TOO
FAR.
BIDEN IS LOOKING AND FIGURING
OUT, WHAT IS THE RIGHT BALANCE,
AS YOU SAY, TO AVOID GETTING TOO
FAR DOWN THE ESCALATORY CHAIN?
>> WHAT IS HE GOING TO SAY IN --
WHEN HE SPEAKS BEFORE THE NATO?
>> ONE, OBVIOUSLY, IS TO
CELEBRATE AND REUNIFY OR
REESTABLISH THE UNITY THAT NATO
HAS DEMONSTRATED IN THE FACE OF
RUSSIAN AGGRESSION.
THAT'S SOMETHING THAT DID, I
THINK, SURPRISE VLADIMIR PUTIN.
HE THOUGHT NATO WAS IN WEAKNESS.
WE HAD THIS DISASTROUS EXIT FROM
AFGHANISTAN.
GERMANS HAD A NEW CHANCELLOR.
FRENCH ARE HAVING AN ELECTION.
BORIS JOHNSON IS WEAK.
THINKING HE COULD GET AT US
AFTER THE FRAYING TIES WITH
TRUMP AND EUROPE.
THE ALLIANCE HAS BEEN BROUGHT
TOGETHER IN A WAY IT HASN'T BEEN
IN YEARS.
HE IS GOING TO REINFORCE THAT.
THE SECOND THING HE'LL TALK
ABOUT, OF COURSE, IS MORE
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS.
WE'RE SEEING SANCTIONING MORE
DOUMA RUSSIAN MEMBERS, THE
PARLIAMENT, WHICH IS SYMBOLIC
BUT IT IS AN IMPORTANT
STATEMENT.
IN HELPING OF WEANING EUROPE OFF
RUSSIAN ENERGY, IT IS IMPORTANT.
THERE IS TALK ABOUT THE FUTURE
DEPLOYMENTS IN EASTERN EUROPE TO
BOLSTER THE POLS AND THE
ROMANIAN
ROMANIANS, HOW WE CAN GET MORE
FORCES IF THERE TO MAKE SURE
VLADIMIR PUTIN DOESN'T TRIP OVER
THE NATO WIRE.
>> GENERAL McCAFFREY, PETER IS
RIGHT.
ONE OF THE UNANTICIPATED
CONSEQUENCES FOR VLADIMIR PUTIN
OF THIS IS THE STRENGTHENING OF
NATO.
HE PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE SEEPN IT
COMING, BUT HE DIDN'T.
THE WEST RALLYING AROUND
UKRAINE.
WE EXPECT TOMORROW PRESIDENT
BIDEN WILL ANNOUNCE AN INCREASE
IN AMERICAN TROOPS IN SOME OF
THE EASTERN EUROPEAN NATO
COUNTRIES.
SO WHAT DO YOU SEE HERE FROM
VLADIMIR PUTIN, AS A MILITARY
STRATEGIST?
YOU'VE WATCHED THIS GUY FOR A
LONG TIME.
YOU SEE THE DESPERATION NOW THAT
HE'S OPERATING UNDER.
WHAT DO YOU EXPECT FROM HIM NEXT
FROM A MILITARY POINT OF VIEW?
>> LOOK, I THINK YOU'RE RIGHT TO
CHARACTERIZE THIS AS
DESPERATION.
HIS OPTIONS ARE NOW EXTREMELY
LIMITED.
ONCE YOU HAVE SCREWED UP A GIANT
INVASION FORCE, LOGISTICALLY,
COMMAND AND CONTROL, IT'S REALLY
HARD TO REGAIN THE TENTACLES OF
COMMAND.
IT MAY BE WEEKS FOR A PAUSE AND
RESTRUCTURING ON THE
BATTLEFIELD, TO REPLACE
CASUALTIES.
25,000 KILLED AND WOUNDED.
TRAINS GOING BACK TO MOTHER
RUSSIA WITH YOUNG RUSHSIAN BOYS
TORN APART.
HE IS RUNNING OUT OF
CONVENTIONAL OPTIONS.
IT WON'T CAUSE HIM TO BACK OFF.
THE NEXT STEP IS, WHAT ELSE?
WE SAY WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION.
NORMALLY, WE TALK ABOUT NUCLEAR,
BUT INCLUDES CHEMICAL,
BIOLOGICAL, AND MOST OF US NOW
INCLUDE CYBER WARFARE.
IF HE GOES TO CYBER, THE
ESCALATION MAY BE CATASTROPHIC
ON BOTH SIDES.
WE HAVE AN ENORMOUS, IN CONCERT
WITH THE BRITS, OFFENSIVE CYBER
CAPABILITY, WHICH WOULD BE
BROUGHT TO BEAR ON THE RUSSIANS.
AND I THINK HE'S NOW LOOKING AT,
SERIOUSLY PROBABLY, CHEMICAL
WEAPONS.
VERY SMALL MILITARY THREAT TO
THE U.S. ARMY.
WE HAVE PROTECTIVE GEAR, EARLY
WARNING SYSTEMS, MEDICAL CARE,
PROTECTIVE MASKS.
YOU CAN'T PROVIDE THOSE TO
MILLIONS OF UKRAINIAN CIVILIANS.
THE CASUALTIES WOULD BE
DEVASTATING.
CATASTROPHIC.
HORRIBLE.
MY GUESS IS IF HE GOES THAT
ROUTE, HE WILL TRIGGER THE
POLITICAL IMPETUS TO BRING NATO
INTO THE WAR, TO HIS OWN HARM.
SO WE'RE AT A VERY CRUCIAL
POINT.
HE'S NOT PACKINGBACKING OFF.
50% OF THE RUSSIAN TROOPS DON'T
HAVE FROSTBITE.
THERE'S A LOT OF NONSENSE
FLOATING AROUND THERE, ALSO.
MARIUPOL IS GOING TO GO UNDER
SOONER OR LATER.
KYIV AND ODESA, AS GENERAL