I actually see some level of
trajectory
Momentum away from further globalisation, but the most important point is the most advanced part of our economy
Which is technology?
chips
5g heart big data the cloud and there we actually see globalization literally falling apart
I mean certainly
People are moving and ideas are moving in capitals moving around the world faster and faster
That's certainly true. And if you want to talk about, you know sort of
early stage industrialization
Oil gas commodities rare earths. I don't see de globalization happening there
I actually see markets continuing to become more integrated, but if you start talking about
Manufactured goods and services there
I see labor becoming less important to supply chain and I see supply chains becoming shorter and
especially after the next economic downturn and
Given the fact that the Chinese are becoming more competitive and they don't have rule of law. I actually see some level of
trajectory
Momentum away from further globalization, but the most important point is the most advanced part of our economy
Which is technology?
chips
5g heart big data the cloud and there we actually see
globalization literally falling apart
we see two completely different competitive systems one being driven by the Chinese the other
Largely being driven by the Americans and they don't interact
I mean everyone's complaining right now in China that the Americans are trying to get Witter Huawei, which is their major
you know sort of technology company driving 5g, but if you're Amazon or Google
Which are functionally American monopolies in their space, you know
They don't even have access in the world's largest internet market China. Yeah, that's it. That's not globalization. That's not the world wide web
That's a splinter net and it's completely different from what advocates of globalization and the free market
We're hoping was gonna happen in 21st century trade wars figuring into all of this
Interconnected with this we can you say well trade wars are a part of this but the Americans and the Chinese
Fundamentally need each other in trade. We want to buy Chinese goods
They want to sell them to us and one of the reasons why Trump despite talking about putting tariffs on the remaining
325 billion dollars of Chinese exports to the US has been reluctant to do so
Because those are products that American consumers actually buy it's clothing. Its toys its your iPhone and if he does that
American voters are gonna feel it
So he's very reluctant and that's why despite the fact that there's no breakthrough deal as of yet between American and the Chinese
He's actually put a ceiling on further escalation
so yes, the populism and nationalism that we see not just in the US but in many democracies around the world developed and developing is
leading to some more protectionism
but the fact is that the interconnection of international trade is still a driving force in the driving force that yes, they're
multilateral agreements
Part of the picture here - disintegrating into bilateral agreements
What do you see the trends in that happening as it ties in with everything that you're describing?
it's very hard for leaders of advanced industrial economies to convince their
Populations that more free trade is good for them
So the average member of the working class in the middle class may see
That the markets are doing really well and may see that the top 10% 1% point 1% have done really well
But to the extent that their wages have been flat for decades now telling them that NAFTA or the trans-pacific partnership
Is good for them doesn't really cut the mustard that's true in the u.s
Bernie Sanders would have opposed the TPP Hillary Clinton was an architect but said she'd have to change it before she pushed it through Congress
Trump of course famously said I'm ripping it up and Obama couldn't get it done. That's also true in Europe
It's true in lots of wealthy democracies interestingly
You've got a lot of populism and nationalism in countries like Mexico and Brazil
But they are working in middle classes have benefited from globalization and they see it
Those are the ones that got the jobs that left the United States and Europe
So even though they are voting in anti-establishment anti-corruption figures
There's no problem promoting free trade and in Mexico the new US Mexico Canada trade agreement
Which is a little bit like NAFTA prime is very popular among pretty much the entire population. Mm-hmm. The
you mentioned
corruption
to shift gears a little bit
What about the rise of illiberal democracies?
You have many governments now emerging where you have autocrats at the core
Benefiting from what appears to be superficially a
Democracy, I think you can think of Russia in that regard and in other countries, too
they vote the people vote for
So-and-so and there's an operation that seems to be happening within those countries having to do with perhaps
Illicit funds and money and kleptocrats and things of that sort
What's on that also it's interesting? First of all, I would not consider Russian a liberal democracy
I would consider them a functional authoritarian regime
There are no meaningful opposition parties in Russia, the Russian government controls all the media that matters
And as a consequence if the Russian people wanted to potentially vote for someone other than Putin
They really don't have the opportunity to in the case of Turkey
You have a democracy with relatively weak democratic
institutions and a would-be autocrat former prime minister now President Erdogan
Trying to dismantle that system so that he can run it right and he's family. That's really interesting
Like he's tried really hard and Lord knows there's a lot of corruption around his family and around his you know
Sort of business Network and yet there was an attempted coup against him it failed and yet, you know
They couldn't get his own guy as the mayor of Istanbul despite two tries
two bites at the Apple in their elections and
Some of his most important former supporters are now leaving his a.k party and they're developing
Alternative political movements in the same space the center-right to go against him. In other words. I think we're seeing the tipping point
Away from her Diwan. I don't think he's gonna be running that country and another sort of five to ten years
But we're not seeing the tipping point of autocrat star. Are we no, no, no, maybe him
autocrats you're in there like autocrats are becoming stronger in many of their countries because
Number one you don't have this
cohesive
Free world order that's actively promoting human rights and democracy. They're not leading by example number two
technology is increasingly empowering autocrats to surveil their populace and
Sort of nudge their behavior into ways that are more stabilizing for that political regime, but my point on Turkey
Is that for those in the United States that believe? Oh my god if Trump gets a second term
we're no longer gonna be a democracy the facts believe that when Trump says I
Want to change the way we think about the census he fails he has to back away when Trump says I don't like the way
the feds behaving I don't want an independent central bank Jay Powell says if he tells me to quit I'm not leaving I mean
So far two and a half years of Trump, he's divided the country an awful lot
He's caused a lot of internal angst and even some real anger
But he's not actually done anything to the institutions and I think that's really important
You