This is football night in America, served by Applebee's.
I'm up inside the studio, Maria Taylor alongside. Tony Dungy.
We've got Drew Brees here. We've got Mike Florio and Steve
kornacki as in the building and that's because we have to wrap
up week 16 for you and get you set for the final two weeks of
the regular season. And we gotta start with a game that we
all had
our eyes on. It was the Buffalo Bills, the New England Patriots
an opportunity for a little bit of Revenge as the bills went on
the road. And that's exactly what they got.
Yes, they did. And I remember the first game
in Buffalo,
New England, ran the ball on. And the Buffalo safeties after
the game. Remember that? They're all upset with
the quite. Hey, you questions, our defense. Well, they got
a little payback, the this game
held New England to
1410 on third, down 14, 432, throwing the ball. They played
some defense, Josh. Allen was a great, but the defense was just
say and talk about payback. I know the offense wanted some
payback as well, for how they played
in that first game. Probably feeling like, you know, they
really let them them down as well. So they came out slinging
the ball, right? And to your point earlier. Your coach, you
talked about New England,
they knew they were going to come out and throw and it's
their job to stop and they couldn't stop it. And in large
part, that's because of Josh, Allen's versatility and his
ability to scramble, and make plays in the pass game, which
he did on many occasions today, to extend drives convert third
Long's.
But also with his legs, he continues to be one of their
leading rushers just about every week and Jake. Abraham's
one of our statisticians. Gave us a stat. I could not believe.
No turnovers.
No takeaways. No pants. Yeah, first time for Bill, Belichick
defense ever. And not only that Josh Allen pass for 314 yards.
You saw it three
passing touchdowns. It was impressive and led his team
in rushing. Mike Florio. I mean, the bill certainly had
revenge on the mind and opportunity to retake the AFC
East and they were able to do both of those things. And
I think as they get closer to the end of the season, they're more
willing to unleash Josh Allen. As a runner that
makes him even more dangerous. They're less concerned about
the potential for injury. They know that they have to go. For
and I'm fascinated by the psychology of the Patriots.
They haven't won
since that night in Buffalo that Monday night. They had
a bye week. Then. They lost on a Saturday night. Mac Jones said
they didn't have enough energy when they came out against
Indianapolis and now they've lost again. I don't
I can't get used to seeing this from a Bill Belichick coach
team almost like they kind of lost their Edge a little bit.
They got content with themselves after they beat
the bills. Bill Belichick actually smiled. After that game.
I can't help it.
I can't help but wonder whether or not they
they just kind of, you know, they lost that laser focus and
they're having a hard time getting it back. Yeah, no
smiles. Were Bill Belichick, but we're all smiles because
Steve kornacki is here. He helped us break down the impact
of the matchup between
the bills and the Patriot. Yeah, I mean
Trading places in the AFC East, you can see coming into today,
the bills were 38% shot to win this division. They beat
the Pats. They've basically doubled their chances of winning
the afc's. They are now a 75% shot. The bills are to win
the division, the
Patriots, a 24 percent chance member the bills right now have
the tiebreaker over the Patriots. Basically,
if the Pats are going to get back and still win this
division. What would it take? The Patriots would have to win
out. They have to beat Jacksonville. They'd have to go
to Miami and win at the end of the year. It's a game Patriots
at Miami lead season. They've had
some trouble with in the
not-too-distant past but the Patriots would have to win
their last two and then they would need the bills to lose
one of these games Atlanta and the Jets. They are both going
into Orchard Park,
Pat's need the bills to slip up somehow and one of those
and went out here. Otherwise if the bills go to 42
and they certainly should based on the Wind probability
the bills. We need AFC East. How about that? Well, let's talk
about the AFC North now and it's the Cincinnati Bengals.
That were talking about, they're all in the cusp of
winning it and it comes on the heels of a huge game. From Joe
burrow beating the Ravens, and just passing for over 500
yards. It's no big deal. Yeah, and I
know the Ravens defense is depleted.
But but this is a
rivalry game. This is a game where
emotions have been high about this matchup all year. Long
Cincinnati went into Baltimore and beat up on them, pretty
good the first time. So you felt like this was going to be
a close game and it wasn't, it was it was an explosive. Civ
offensive. Juggernaut of a performance by Cincinnati,
which we've seen a number of different times this year.
I think the times when Cincinnati's got in trouble is
when they've just turned the ball over. So, if they've got
a ton of weapons, they have the ability to run the football
with Joe Mixon. And
as a result of that, I feel like they've jumped out to some
leads which is really allowed their pass rush to really tee
off on the opposing offense, which is one of the strengths
of their team.
So where they are right now is kind of where I think
I expected them to be.
What I'm interested to see is how this potentially plays out
with Cleveland. In their division because Cleveland
believe it or not, still has a chance to win this. If
that plays out and they are playing the Cincinnati Bengals
week, 18, and we've seen this with Cincinnati before we've
seen the explosive. Where you say. Wow, this this team is
fantastic, and then they followed up with kind of one of
those lemon performances and
and struggle a little bit. So
can they come back against
Kansas City with a lot on the line and play their A-game? If
they can, it's going to be a great game.
Well, if anyone knows the, the inside workings of the Bangles
is going to be Mike Florio. You actually got to talk to Joe
burrow. I mean, what are they thinking? This is a huge game
on the horizon, but a huge win that they just put in the bank
when I asked Borough those questions. I started with
the issue of the lack of consistency that we've seen
from The Bangles. They've been up. They've been down. They win
a couple. We assume that they're one of the best teams
in the AFC
and then they lose a couple. He said that. That's just the way
it goes. Stuff like that happens. You're going to have
highs and lows. It's how you respond to each one of them.
You've got to stay.
Level-headed whether you win or you lose and just move on to
the next one. And for this next one. He knows that this is
their opportunity to stake their claim to the division and
also to prove that they belong among the best
teams in the conference with the Chiefs coming to town.
He knows they have a lack of playoff experience, but is he
views it? The last three weeks have been like playoff games.
The next two weeks are like playoff games. So if they do,
make it they'll have some of that experience. Even though
when you
look at the roster, there aren't a lot of guys there that
have played in the single elimination round. Yeah,
confidence isn't short on the big. Bangles. But we keep
mentioning it. They play the Kansas City Chiefs. Next.
Let's talk about what the Chiefs did and week. 16 just
roll up about 375 yards of offense. No Travis Kelce coach.
It just it didn't matter. It seems as though the Chiefs are
operating at a higher level.
What we're used to seeing them operate.
It really was they spread the ball around and we talked
during the week Kelsey's on covid, Tyreke Saint covid-19. A
don't play a howl. This score. Well, Travis Kelce didn't play
Tyreke Hill. Got two Targets in the whole game.
And it's a bunch of other guys who showed up. Yeah, and
I think it's the complementary nature of how they're playing
now too. You know, they were struggling so much on defense
early on offensively taking too many chances just maybe
being a little overconfident but they've certainly
straighten it out on both sides of the ball and I think they're
complementing each other very well. Now, I think the defense
has been one of those things that's really kept them in
some of these games over the last six to seven weeks. But
now you see the offense really taking it to another level and
playing the type of Football that we would expect from
the Chiefs and
from their playoff experience over the last few years, you
feel like this is the time of year where they know how to
play, and they know how to win these games.
And they know if these games are close
in the end, they've got the best chance to win all of them.
Mike your takeaway from the Chiefs game
we and to follow up on what Drew saying. We see so many
teams that have these uncanny and confusing and confounding
lapses in games where you expect them to play better like
the Chargers did today.
Day, but I think the fact, the Chiefs dug a hole for
themselves early and they felt that urgency far sooner than
they ordinarily would. And this isn't going to be an easy
season. We're going to have to work. We're gonna have
to fight. We're going to push ourselves to get better and
better and better and better. And this is the not finished
product, but close to the finished product just in time,
for the playoffs to me, you know, it could be the best
thing that ever happened to them. Coming off of a Super
Bowl loss,
was to struggle early and
have to take a step back and,
and climb the mountain all over again with a fresh motivation.
Fresh. Incentive, and it's worked. And even with all of
those struggles. They still clenched their 6th straight
division titles. So it's impressive to see
the chief standing, right? Where they are and they play
the Bengals next week. Now, the one game that was actually
called by this guy over here where the Saints of setting
Tampa Bay
and so Tampa Bay was trying to get back on the snide and get
a win in their win column and they had to do it against
the Carolina Panthers, but they had to do it drew without Mike
Evans without Chris Godwin who you absolutely love and without
Leonard fournette.
How did they do it?
It. Yeah, well,
they had a week to prepare and and you take a guy, like Tom
Brady, you feel like no matter who he's able to
play with. If he has a week to prepare.
He's going to put those guys in the best positions to succeed.
Now, getting back in Tonio Brown, I think was the key to today.
And you could tell that Tom Brady wanted to get him
involved as quickly as possible. But what I still am
waiting to see is
as they begin to play better competition than the Carolina
Panthers without a Chris Godwin. How are they able to?
The middle of the field and who becomes
that player that Chris Godwin was, because his role was so
extensive. In this offense. He was the force Blocker in most
of the Run game schemes. He was the guy who was working
the middle of field. He was also the guy who's getting a lot of
the
favorable matchups in the middle of field. So
while Antonio Brown can carry some of that burden,
he's not going to carry all of it.
So that's what I'm really interested to see his who
indeed takes on that that role
and Tampa. They're very versatile and Byron Leftwich
called a good game and they put Antonio Brown in some spots to
make plays on the outside. They got Cameron braid involved,
Gronk involved in the middle of the field. So they'll do it
differently, but they still have some Weaponry. Yeah, 57
percent of their offense was missing Mike Florio,
but Tampa Bay still finding a way to get a victory and Carolina.
What, here's what was most encouraging about it last year.
There was a sense in that offense of interchangeable
parts that they could take a guy out. Put another guy in,
whoever it was,
Brady was going to make it.
We had Rick's trout of the Tampa Bay Times on
PFT p.m. Last week and I asked him about that difference
because it doesn't feel the same way this year. And he said
he doesn't have the same rapport with everyone that he
had last year. He's gravitated toward a few guys.
And now those guys are gone.
And I think what what is best for the Tampa Bay? Buccaneers
going forward how quickly Brady has pivoted to these other guys
and has shown that he can
develop the right rapport with them right away. With my
Kevin's gone with Chris Godwin, gone with Leonard fournette
gone. That's going to be critical to the Buccaneers.
They got a couple more weeks to work on it before the playoffs,
and they're going to have to be able to go with. Whoever's out
there
as injuries happen in the postseason. We saw him do it
last year and now they're in position to do it again this
year. Now, Mike, I'm going to come right back to you because
I saw earlier this week on your podcast with Chris Sims that
you had on a Minnesota Vikings,
ugly, Christmas sweater situation. And so like it must
have been a crushing loss for you to see the Vikings trying
to just dig themselves out of the hole against the ramp. They
played pretty well and still end up losing the game.
Yeah, and actually say, I've evolved to the point where
I pick the Rams to win
and I picked the score to be 3223
and it hits 3223,
my excitement from being the blind, squirrel, that finds
a nut and change overcomes any and all of my childhood
Lamentations about the Vikings not being any good. And you
know, is this the the death blow for the Vikings? I think
it comes
next Sunday night. If they can't beat the Packers at
Lambeau Field obviously, but the Rams to win a game
when Matthew Stafford. Alfred had three interceptions
when they kept handing it to the Vikings in the Vikings.
Didn't take it. That's got to be encouraging for the team
that manages to get a victory under those circumstances
because those are the days you're supposed to lose and you
still
go to win.
2018 was the last time Matthew Stafford had three
interceptions in one game. So yeah must be a luxury at this
point. And you know the Rams
they're in first place in their division.
They're coming on, they're doing some things well, but
I still think Drew when they run the ball and don't put it all.
Quarterback. Yeah, they've got talented receivers. They can
throw it all over the park,
but they don't need to and that's not the style that they
play best. I don't think I agree. It's easy to get
infatuated with this strong-armed Gunslinger
quarterback, who you just want to put in shotgun and spread
everyone out and throw it. Listen.
I've been in that situation when and you love that and yet
you also understand that that is not what's best for our
offense. It's not what's best for the offensive line and it's
not what puts us in the best position to succeed
when they're at their best is when Matthew Stafford is.
Is under Center handing the ball off, with these wide Zone
schemes. They're bringing tight ends back. It sets up there,
naked bootlegs.
It sets up all their play action shots where they get
these speed receivers running up on safeties and getting
these one-on-one 50/50 balls.
But what I've really liked seeing is the report that's
being developed between Matthew Stafford and Odell Beckham jr.
Certainly we know that's existed with Cooper cup
and we wondered how that was going to be with obj.
And I think that we really To see that come to fruition. And
now having those two guys, in addition to some of the other
speedsters it certainly makes them dangerous.
If they can get those guys matched up
to come in the playoffs though. You play Green Bay or Tampa,
you're not going to be able to turn the ball over three or
four times. And when those games you've got to be
efficient. Okay, we'll see whether or not they can be
efficient as the postseason, obviously is looming. So we've
been through our headlines for the
NFC and the AFC. Let's go back to Steve kornacki
to help us break down. What is a very tightly contested?
Race into that AFC. Hey, got a traffic jam for the seven spot.
Let's in fact, taking a look at the AFC standing here. Let's
actually draw a line after six because we talked about
the patch losing to the bills. The Pats falling out of first place
in the AFC East but still
they are overwhelmingly well-positioned. The Patriots
are still to get a playoff berth. So are the Colts you see
for those two wild card spots. They're five and six where
things get crazy here is for the seven spot for the moment.
The Ravens, sit in the seven spot, you
can see but look, the Chargers are also eight. Seven,
the Raiders are eight and seven
and we can, in fact, keep scrolling down this list and show you.
You can go all the way down to 13th Place.
Denver there a game
behind the Ravens right now. He has seven teams within one game
of that seventh spot right now. You can see the teams that have
a twins in terms of the probabilities, the Ravens,
the Chargers the
Raiders. They have the highest probabilities here. Nobody's
near 50% though. They do have the highest probabilities.
Remember,
Raiders Chargers. They're going to play the last week of
the Season, that could be key. Key, but the biggest single variable
right now, when you look at this pile up, it's Miami.
There's seven and seven. They had they
have the game against
the Monday night game against New Orleans. If Miami can win
that, then they're also going to be eight and seven. Sorry
for my terrible writing. But if Miami wins, that game, two
things are going to happen. Number one.
They are going to vote Vault all the way up to the seven
Spot. Miami would at least for the moment replace Baltimore in
the seven spot in the playoff picture in that 13%,
It's that Miami has
right now would actually climb to 25 percent. Miami would be
a one-in-four shot to make the playoffs. Oh, really? If
the Dolphins can beat the Saints, you're really going to have
four eight and seven teams
with pretty even chances to make the playoffs. Be a mad
scramble as final two weeks. All right. Thanks Steve. We
gotta get him a bigger touch screen, just to break down
the 7 seed in the AFC. He's got a scroll to the bottom.
But meanwhile, it's time to go to the speed around. We've
broken down. All of the headlines that we've seen last
week. Let's talk about. Out what we know for sure. And that
is that the Chargers, had a really tough loss against
Houston.
So if you had to give me one word for the loss, true, it
would be what
costly
costly in their playoff chances. It was a kind one.
Yeah,
I'm gonna go to words Maria. Okay. Vintage charger
School. Charger
is losing games. That we feel like there should win
losing games that they need in an ugly fashion
Mike.
Yeah. Disqualifying for me. I don't care what their
percentage is. I think you should just take them off
the board as a playoff team. If you can't, beat Houston, ha ha ha.
In week 16,
when, you know, that it's critical to get to
the playoffs. You shouldn't want to be in the playoffs. You got no
chance to win in January. If you can't win this game. Okay,
you got a point, the best team in the AFC is who drew
Kansas City Chiefs?
Yeah, they're rolling
and go on with the Chiefs right now until someone proves us
different Mike.
Yeah, I agree. Right now. It's the chief speak, but the bills,
the bills could ride into Ooh, the playoffs with a lot of
momentum if they win their last two and I'm going to give you
one
name to think about. Yep, in Annapolis, cold
knew that was coming.
Taylor
played defense, cold weather.
We'll see what happens. Okay, like how you slip them in
slavery days.
Okay, to NFC playoff spots left, who gets them.
I think Philadelphia is going to get one. Sure. I agree. And
then after that New Orleans, can they do it?
They went out. Well, since you took the Colts I'm going to town.
Okay, for that last one. You set him up. Yeah, that's right.
Appreciate it.
Yeah, I'd say the Eagles in the 49ers at this point. I can't
forget about them. Even though they lost Thursday night to
the Titans. They had that game. One. Jimmy Garoppolo had
a couple of untimely interceptions one that could
have given them a 14-nothing lead. Another one that opened
the door to the Titans
to tie the game up in the third quarter. Otherwise, the 49ers
were winning that game, they were overpowering. In
the Titans, I think they can get it together for the last couple of
games and get one of those spots.
All right, guys, you did great during the speed round, but our
time is up. So that wraps up our week. 16 week 17. We hope
to see you again. We've got the Vikings. We've got the Packers
and of course we got football night in America. Starting
at 7:00 eastern. We'll see you Sunday.