JACKIE: SURE IS.
GRADY TRIMBLE THANK YOU.
FOR MORE ON ALL OF THIS ECONOMIC
UNCERTAINTY UNDER THE BIDEN
ADMINISTRATION WELCOME HOUSE
NATURAL RESOURCES COMMITTEE
RANKING MEMBER CONGRESSMAN BRUCE
WESTERMAN ALONG WITH FORMER U.S.
TREASURY OFFICIAL MICHAEL
FALKENDER.
LET’S START WITH YOU,
CONGRESSMAN, AND TALK ABOUT THE
20 STATES HELPING FOLKS DEAL
WITH INFLATION WHICH STERNLY HAS
NOT BEEN TRANSITORY AND ACTUALLY
HAS REALLY HIT THE POCKETBOOKS
OF A LOT OF PEOPLE.
NOW STATES HAVE TO WRITE THE
CHECKS, GIVE SOME SORT OF A
BREAK TO RESIDENTS.
ESSENTIALLY IT IS MORE HANDOUTS,
MORE STIMULUS, WHILE WE’RE
COMBATING 7.7% INFLATION.
>> GOOD EVENING, JACKIE, GOOD TO
BE WITH YOU.
WE’RE GETTING INTO WHAT OLD
PROGRAMMERS CALL A CONTINUOUS DO
LOOP.
WE HAVE INFLATION BECAUSE WE PUT
TOO MUCH MONEY INTO AN
OVERHEATED ECONOMY AND THE
SOLUTION NOW IS PUT MORE
GOVERNMENT MONEY INTO THE
ECONOMY.
SO THIS ISN’T THE SOLUTION TO
LOWERING INFLATION.
THE SOLUTION IS TO INCREASE
SUPPLY CHAINS SO THAT WE’VE GOT
MORE PRODUCTS OUT THERE, WE’RE
NOT PUTTING UNDO PRESSURE ON
STRESSED SUPPLY CHAIN SIDE.
JACKIE: NOW WE HAVE THE SOUND
BITE FROM JEROME POWELL WHERE HE
IS TALKING ABOUT INFLATION.
I WANT TO LISTEN TO IT BECAUSE
THE WORDS ARE REALLY IMPORTANT.
>> WE HAVE A RISK MANAGEMENT
BALANCE TO STRIKE AND WE THINK
SLOWING DOWN AT THIS POINT IS A
GOOD WAY TO BALANCE THE RISKS.
THE TIME FOR MODERATING THE RATE
OF PACE INCREASES MAY COME AS
SOON AS DECEMBER MEETING.
IT IS LIKELY RESTORING PRICE
STABILITY REQUIRES HOLDING
POLICY AT A RESTRICTIVE LEVEL
FOR SOME TIME.
HISTORY CAUTIONS STRONGLY
AGAINST PREMATURELY LOOSENING
POLICY.
JACKIE: MICHAEL, THE MARKET GOT
EXCITED ABOUT THE FIRST PART OF
THIS STATEMENT.
MAYBE HE WILL NOT RAISE RATES AS
MUCH AS HE HAS BEEN AS SOON AS
DECEMBER.
THE SECOND PART SAYS RESTORING
PRICE STABILITY WILL REQUIRE
HOLDING INTEREST RATES AT A
RESTRICTIVE LEVEL FOR SOME TIME.
WE’RE STILL IN FOR RATE HIKES
HERE.
>> WE ARE.
THE CONFUSION FROM CHAIRMAN
POWELL CONTINUES.
ON ONE HAND HE WANTS TO TALK
TOUGH BECAUSE HE WAS SO LATE
STARTING INTEREST RATES CURBING
INFLATION, BLAMING IT ON
TRANSITORY FACTORS NOW HE IS
BEHIND.
HE DOESN’T WANT THE ECONOMY TO
TANK BY HAVING IT GO INTO
RECESSION BUT AT THE SAME TIME
HE WANTS TO SEND A MESSAGE THAT
HE WILL BE FIRM ON PRICES.
YOU KNOW THE OTHER THING,
JACKIE, I WOULD POINT OUT THAT’S
A LITTLE BIT FRUSTRATING ABOUT
HIS REMARKS YESTERDAY IS THAT HE
SAID ONLY THE FED IS TAKING THE
LEAD ON DEALING WITH THE LABOR
SHORTAGES.
AS THE CONGRESSMAN JUST
MENTIONED THERE IS ALSO A ROLE
FOR THE ADMINISTRATION AND
CONGRESS TO PLAY IN RELAXING
SOME OF THESE SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS
SO WE’RE NOT SOLELY RELIANT ON
MONETARY POLICY TO BRING
INFLATION DOWN.
JACKIE: NO.
THAT IS AN EXCELLENT POINT BUT
JEROME POWELL SAID BACK IN THE
LATE SUMMER IN JACKSON HOLE THAT
HE WAS GOING TO RAISE RATES AND
HE WOULD DEFINITELY ANTICIPATE
THAT THE LABOR MARKET WOULD
SLOW.
THERE IS A NEW SURVEY OUT FROM
CHALLENGER, GRAY & CHRISTMAS.
YOU CAN SEE THAT THE LAYOFFS ARE
STARTING TO ADD UP HERE.
THAT IS WHAT I’VE BEEN TALKING
ABOUT WITH RESPECT TO A COOLING
ECONOMY AND THIS ADMINISTRATION
KEEPS SAYING BUT THE LABOR
MARKET IS FINE.
YOU START TO ADD THESE NUMBERS
TOGETHER, MOST OF THEM IN THE
TECH SECTOR, THAT YOU REALIZE
THEY’RE ADDING UP SIGNIFICANTLY.
AND 2023, CONGRESSMAN, WILL BE
BRUTAL FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE.
MEANTIME YOU ADD TO THIS, $433
PER MONTH YEAR-OVER-YEAR,
ACCORDING TO MOODY’S WHAT
INFLATION IS COSTING THE AVERAGE
AMERICAN RIGHT NOW?
>> YEAH.
IT’S, IT’S AN UNTENABLE
SITUATION WHEN YOU’VE GOT
INFLATION AND YOU’RE SEEING A
WEAKENING JOB MARKET.
WE SAW THAT THE NEW UNEMPLOYMENT
CLAIMS ACTUALLY DECREASED BUT
THE CONTINUAL UNEMPLOYMENT
CLAIMS GREW THIS PAST WEEK, TO
THE HIGHEST WE HAVEN’T SEEN
SINCE FEBRUARY.
SO, THERE ARE SIGNS OUT THERE
THAT THE LABOR MARKET IS
WEAKENING.
IT STILL DOESN’T ADD UP TO ME,
JACKIE.
THIS IS A MYSTERY, MAYBE
SOMEBODY MUCH SMARTER CAN FIGURE
THIS OUT, EVERY EMPLOYER I TALK
BACK-TO-BACK HOME ACROSS THE
COUNTRY TELLS ME THEY CANNOT
FINE PEOPLE TO WORK.
JACKIE: YEAH.
>> THEY HAVE GOT JOBS THEY CAN’T
FILL YET YOU’RE SEEING CONTINUED
UNEMEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS GROW AND
LOWER -- YEAH.
JACKIE: I HAVE STUDIED THIS
EXTENSIVELY.
I’M NOT SURE I HAVE THE RIGHT
ANSWER BUT WHAT IT SEEMS LIKE
IS, PEOPLE ARE GETTING LAID OFF,
YES.
THOSE PEOPLE WERE IN THE
WORKFORCE, GAINFULLY EMPLOYED.
THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION
RATE IS GOING DOWN BECAUSE WHEN
YOU LOOK AT THAT MAP WHERE WE
SHOWED 20 STATES OF PEOPLE
GETTING ADDITIONAL BENEFITS OF,
TO HELP THEM COMBAT INFLATION
BUT ALSO OF COURSE THIS IS AN
ADMINISTRATION THAT SPENT A LOT
MORE TO HELP PEOPLE OVERALL THEY
SAY YOU KNOW, WHY SHOULD I GO TO
WORK?
WHY SHOULD I BOTHER?
IF I STAY HOME LONG ENOUGH THEY
WILL SEND ME ANOTHER CHECK,
MICHAEL, RIGHT?
>> THAT IS EXACTLY THE PROBLEM
IS THAT ALL OF THIS FEDERAL
MONEY LARGELY THAT WAS SENT OUT
DID NOT HAVE WORK REQUIREMENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
AS YOU WERE SAYING WE’RE SEEING
LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE
LAST MONTH IN THE JOBS REPORT
DECLINED.
WE’RE WAITING TO SEE WHAT
TOMORROW’S REPORT WILL PROVIDE
US WITH BUT WHEN YOU HAVE PEOPLE
SITTING ON ENOUGH MONEY FROM ALL
OF THE EXCESSIVE GOVERNMENT
STIMULUS CHECKS THAT HAVE BEEN
SENT OUT NOW THEY’RE GETTING
THEM FROM THE STATES, THERE IS
LESS WORK TO GO FILL ALL OF
THOSE JOB OPENINGS THAT ARE OUT
THERE.
SO WE’VE GOT WORK, WE’VE GOT
EMPLOYERS LOOKING FOR JOBS.
THE JOLTS REPORT EARLIER THIS
WEEK SAID WE’RE STILL ABOVE
10 MILLION JOB OPENINGS.
YET THEY CAN’T FIND ENOUGH
WORKERS.
THIS IS WHERE CONGRESS, I HOPE
THE NEXT CONGRESS, REIMPOSES JOB
REQUIREMENTS FOR RECEIVING
FEDERAL AID IN MANY OF THESE
PROGRAMS.
JACKIE: IT IS AN EXCELLENT
POINT.
IN THE LAST MOMENT WE HAVE LEFT,
CONGRESSMAN, IF I CAN JUST ASK
BUT THE RAILROAD STRIKE WHICH
WAS AVERTED, THE HOUSE PASSED
THE BILL YESTERDAY, THE SENATE
APPROVED TODAY, THOSE ADDITIONAL
PAID SICK LEAVE DAYS NOT
INCLUDED BUT THIS WOULD HAVE
BEEN A HUGE COLOSSAL PROBLEM FOR
THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION IN THIS
CURRENT ENVIRONMENT WHEN THEY
SAID THIS THEY PRETTY MUCH HAD
IT ALL WRAPPED UP, EVERYTHING
WAS FINE AND YET AT THE LAST
MINUTE THEY SAY, WE NEED
CONGRESS TO STEP IN?
>> I THINK THIS IS A BAD
PRECEDENT, JACKIE.
YOU’VE GOT A GROUP THAT WAS
LITERALLY HOLDING THE AMERICAN
ECONOMY HOSTAGE.
IT WAS SO BAD THAT THE HOSTAGES
BECAME SYMPATHETIC TOWARDS THE
HOT DAMAGE TAKERS.
EVERYONE WANTED CONGRESS TO BAIL
OUT THE SITUATION TO APPROVE AN
AGREEMENT THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN
WORKED OUT BETWEEN THE EMPLOYEES
AND THE COMPANIES AND IT SHOWS
THE FAILURE OF THE BIDEN
ADMINISTRATION TO DEAL WITH AN
ISSUE THAT HE CLAIMS TO BE AN
EXPERT IN.
THAT IS LABOR ISSUES.
JACKIE: NO.
THAT IS AN EXCELLENT POINT.
HE CERTAINLY DOES.
IT IS IRONIC TO SAY THE LEAST.