Brazilian striker Joelinton has found it hard going to Newcastle United – a £40 million
striker, brought in to replace Salmon Rondon, who has so far only registered one goal and
two assists in the league. Rondon was an aerially dominant, physically robust striker ideally
equipped to play for a direct, counter-attacking side; Joelinton is not the same type of player,
but he could be a real asset for Newcastle United if Steve Bruce adapts his approach
to get the best from his expensive forward.
At Hoffenheim under their then coach Julian Nagelsmann, Joelinton was predominantly used
as part of a two-man strike partnership alongside Andrej Kramaric or Ishak Belfodil. He did
also play as an attacking midfielder in a midfield diamond formation and as a wide player
in a 4-3-3, but these were less usual and a result of Nagelsmann’s predilection for
changing tactical set-ups to counter specific threats or exploit specific opportunities.
So, even when Joelinton was played wide or in the hole, it was for a very specific reason
and the team and player had worked on this.
At Hoffenheim, Joelinton’s ability to receive passes to feet, hold off defenders and create
space, or dribble, meant that he was a creative threat as much, or more, than a goalscoring
one. Playing alongside another striker and with willing runners from midfield and out
wide in effective wingbacks Nico Schulz and Pavel Kaderabek, Joelinton would drop off
the front line and then either turn and carry, or play passes back, ahead, or out wide, before
peeling off to in turn create space for the next player by running at the defence.
His ability to run directly with the ball was an asset centrally or out wide, meaning
he could play one twos coming out of a dribble, or take on an isolated defender, especially
where other attackers had created space for him to do so.
It’s also worth pointing out that, like another Hoffenheim product, Roberto Firmino,
Joelinton was an extremely effective and intelligent presser of the ball. Hoffenheim under Nagelsmann
pressed high up the pitch, often winning turnovers and transitioning rapidly into attack – this
again afforded space for the Brazilian to run in to – and his intelligence and willingness
to work hard along with his fellow attackers saw Hoffenheim develop an extremely effective
pressing game.
Newcastle under Steve Bruce are, by contrast, defensively set-up to drop off and maintain
a compact shape in their most used formation, the 5-4-1. According to Wyscout, Newcastle’s
Passes per Defensive Action, a measure of how much the opposition are allowed to pass
the ball before some form of pressing or tackle is engaged, is 18.4, the most allowed in the
league and almost five higher than the next team, Sheffield United. Newcastle don’t
just not press, they actively sit off.
The 5-4-1 is used in a mid and low block, vertically compact and very solid. If stretched
wide, a winger drops off to double up with the full back, and sometimes a midfielder
also drops into the back line to ensure that the low block stays complete. It makes Newcastle
fairly hard to break down; although they have conceded 41 goals in their 29 games so far
this season, that’s the 13th best in the league.
Where Newcastle struggle is in scoring, which is part of the reason why Joelinton is under
the spotlight. After 29 games, no side has scored fewer goals this season than the Magpies,
who have 25, joint with bottom side Norwich City. But this defensive system is one of
the reasons why they struggle for goals, as it leaves Joelinton alone up front and, crucially,
with no one around him to make the sort of runs that either allow him the space to create
something for the runner, or divert defenders and create space for him. Instead, Newcastle
go direct and aerially to Joelinton, expecting him to hold up the ball. But with the defensive
system meaning that support is deep, it’s hard to get runners to him even when he does
secure possession.
No side has had lower average possession in matches this season than Bruce’s Newcastle.
And no side has managed to get the ball successfully into the final third as few times. This means
that not only is Joelinton isolated, he is deprived of the sort of build-up play and
support running that makes him dangerous. A player who thrives by dropping off to make
space for another striker, or looks to take the ball to feet before playing it off and
making a run himself, has no one to make space for and limited opportunities to bring dangerous
runners like Miguel Almiron or Allan Saint-Maximin into the game. Even when these players do
get to run with the ball, it’s usually from a deeper position and not the result of linking
with the striker.
Ultimately, if Newcastle are to get the best from a talented player, they need to change
their whole outlook: defend less deep so Joelinton has support, press more to play to one of
his strengths, and probably change formation so he is either playing off two strikers – problematic
because Andy Carroll has his perennial fitness issues and Yoshinori Muto has also barely
played – or alongside either a striker like a Dwight Gayle or a tricky runner who could
play as one like Saint-Maximin. In loan signing Valentin Lazaro, and with Matt Ritchie coming
back from injury, Newcastle have the kind of wide midfielders or wing backs who could
affect a shift to a more attacking 3-4-1-2, perhaps with Almiron in the hole.
But these changes are unlikely as Bruce has found a defensive system that is keeping Newcastle’s
head above water. The casualty of this is Joelinton, used in a system and role that
does not suit him and ensures he will continue to be seen as an expensive under-achiever,
however unfairly. Nagelsmann’s Hoffenheim showed how to get the best from Joelinton
– Bruce’s Newcastle do not.