like you.
Thank you.
Geoff: Welcome to the newshour.
Water is pouring through a giant
gap in a dam in southern Ukraine
tonight.
It gave way early this morning,
forcing thousands of people to
flee and touching off competing
claims about the cause.
Amna: Ukraine accused the
Russians of blowing up the dam.
Moscow charged that Ukrainian
shelling caused the rupture.
Neither side offered any direct
evidence, but the results were
catastrophic.
Reporter: The massive structure
that sustained Ukraine's largest
reservoir now overtaken by a
thick wall of water.
Satellite images show the
ruptured kakhovka hydroelectric
power plant and the violent
stream it unleashed.
The torrent burst through the
dam, down the dnipro river and
toward the black sea.
Flooding threatened tens of
thousands of residents of
low-lying villages in the
water's path.
Ukrainian police surveyed the
kherson region by boat at times,
wading through thigh-deep water
to carry people to safety.
>> Our local school and stadium
downtown were flooded, the
stadium was completely under
water and the floodwaters were
reaching the school.
The road was completely flooded,
the bus was stuck.
Only one elevated point could be
reached by the bus and this is
where we were taken from.
Reporter: In occupied nova
kakhovka, Russian officials said
water levels had risen past 30
feet with more than 600 homes
submerged.
The soviet-era dam was captured
by Russian forces at the start
of the war and is surrounded by
major flashpoints on the
frontlines.
It spans the dnipro river,
separating Ukrainian forces from
the russian-occupied south,
including crimea.
To the northeast, the
zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
sits along the kakhovka
reservoir.
And just downstream, kherson,
the port city re-taken by
Ukraine last fall, which has
seen some of the war's most
intense fighting.
Both sides were quick to blame
the other for the breach.
Moscow said it was Ukrainian
explosives.
>> Aiming to prevent the
offensive operations by the
Russian army on this section of
the frontline, the Kyiv regime
committed an act of sabotage.
Reporter: Ukrainian president
volodymyr zelensky responded.
>> It is physically impossible
to blow it up from the outside
by shelling.
It was the Russian occupiers.
They blew it up and this
demonstrates the cynicism with
which Russian -- Russia treats
the people whose land it has
captured.
Reporter: At the white house
they say they are still
assessing who is responsible.
>> We are working with the
Ukrainians to gather more
information but we cannot say
, conclusively what happened at
this point.
What is clear and what we
absolutely can say is that the
damage to the Ukrainian people
and to the region will be
significant.
Reporter: Some reports say
Russian mismanagement of the
facility led to the incident.
In recent days, high water
levels suggest the reservoir
could have been perilously
overfilled, causing the dam
collapse.
Whatever the cause, experts warn
of a potential humanitarian and
environmental crisis.
The dam provides electricity and
drinking water to a huge swath
of southern Ukraine.
And in zaporizhzhia the nuclear
power plant relies on the
reservoir to cool its systems.
The head of the international
atomic energy agency said its
six reactors are in shutdown
mode, leaving enough water to
supply the plant for several
months.
While not presently in danger,
he warned any further harm to
the reservoir could be
catastrophic.
>> It is vital this cooling pond
remains intact.
Nothing must be done to
potentially undermine its
integrity.
I call on all sides to ensure
nothing is done to undermine
that.
The consequences may be grave.
Amna: For more on the
destruction of the dam and its
impact on Ukraine and the war,
we turn to Michael Kaufman from
the center for naval analyses, a
federally funded organization
that focuses on national
security issues.
The breach has impacted both
russian-controlled areas and
ukrainian-held areas.
As U.S. Officials work to assess
who is responsible, how do you
see it?
Would this breach benefit either
side?
Michael: Unfortunately, this
breach is an ecological and
humanitarian disaster that is a
losing proposition for both
sides.
The flooding will substantially
affect the Ukrainian controlled
right side of the riverbank and
damage even more the currently
Russian occupied side of Kher
because it ISS on a loweron,
down to Russian occupied crimea.
It is a disaster with
long-lasting environmental and
humanitarian issues for the
region.
It is unclear if the dam was
damaged due to intentional
attack or negligence.
There was significant rain and
raising of the water level in
the reservoir ahead of this over
the past several months.
It is unclear.
Either way, Russia is
responsible by virtue of action
or the fact that controlled the
dam.
The outcome is a result of
Russia's actions in Ukraine.
Amna: What is the military
impact?
You mentioned downstream crimea
being impacted.
Could the loss of that water
supply impact the rush -- the
Russian occupation there?
Michael: The impact is likely
long term, but is still unclear.
Many models predicting what
could happen in the fall did not
predicted this high of a water
level from the dam.
I do not think this will affect
Ukrainian military prospects
when it comes to their offense.
When you look along the dnipro
river, it will damage defenses
Russians built, but it will make
a Ukrainian operation
exceedingly difficult.
It was always a high risk
proposition to begin with.
I do not think it will
substantially shape outcomes
when it comes to Ukraine's
operations.
Amna: What about the Ukrainian
counteroffensive?
There is consensus it has in
fact begun.
What does that mean for both the
direction and duration of the
war?
Michael: It is fair to say the
Ukrainian offensive has begun
and we are probably in the
initial phases.
The on what people might call
shaping operations that were
taking place over the last
several weeks.
There has been an uptick in
fighting and a limited Ukraine
offensive has made headway in
one part of the region in
donetsk.
There is an increase in
fighting.
That said, the Ukraine offensive
is likely to proceed over
months.
I do not think we are seeing the
main effort where the forces
likely to be involved in the
main effort.
It is too early to make
assessments, except that Ukraine
is taking the initiative and I
am deeply skeptical what
happened with this dam and
flooding will affect military
prospects.
Amna: On the long-term impacts
of the flooding, you're talking
about tens of thousands of
people now deeply impacted being
evacuated.
The disaster on top of 16 months
of war Russia has been waging,
what will this require from the
international community so
invested in helping Ukraine?
Michael: A tremendous amount of
assistance.
Especially once Ukraine
liberates kherson.
That part is substantially
damaged.
It will lead to lasting damage
to agriculture, the provision of
drinkable water, and wipe out
entire communities.
We will have to see what happens
when the water levels recede.
Amna: Disaster on top of
disaster.
That is Michael Kaufman, senior
fellow for Russian studies at
the center for naval analyses.
Thank you.
♪♪