CLOSEST THING THAT WE’VE GOT TO
A ROAD MAP FOR THE JOURNEY
AHEAD.
STEVE KORNACKI, WE’RE GOING TO
BE LOOKING TO YOU-ALL NIGHT
LONG.
LET START.
WHAT DO YOU GOT?
>> HERE WE GO.
WE WILL BE GETTING RESULTS
ACTUALLY WE THINK THIS HOUR FROM
KENTUCKY FROM INDIANA, ALL THE
POLLS NOT CLOSED THERE BUT SOME
WILL THIS HOUR.
BEFORE THAT, LET’S TAKE A LOOK
AT WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TONIGHT.
WE’LL FIRE UP THE ROAD TO 270.
THE BATTLE GROUND MAP.
THERE IS A COUPLE WAYS TO LOOK
AT THIS.
FIRST OF ALL, LET’S START WITH
THIS.
ARE THERE ANY STATES TONIGHT
WHERE PRESIDENT TRUMP IS GOING
TO BE ON OFFENSE?
I MEAN BY THAT, ARE THERE ANY
STATES DONALD TRUMP DID NOT
CARRY IN 2016 THAT WERE CLINTON
STATES HE COULD PICK OFF TONIGHT
AND ADD TO WHAT HE WON IN 2016?
THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN IS TALKING
ABOUT, REMEMBER THESE THREE
TONIGHT, NEW HAMPSHIRE,
MINNESOTA AND NEVADA.
CLINTON STATES IN 2016, THE
TRUMP CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN SAYING
THEY THINK THEY HAVE A SHOT AT.
WE GOT TO SAY, COMING INTO
TONIGHT, THE POLLING WE’VE SEEN
BEFORE THE ELECTION HAS NOT PUT
PRESIDENT TRUMP IN GREAT
POSITION IN THOSE STATES SO THE
BURDEN IS ON HIM TONIGHT AS
THESE VOTES COME IN TO SHOW HE
CAN MAKE SOMETHING HAPPEN THAT
HASN’T HAPPENED THERE IN THE
POLLS.
IF HE FAILS TO PICK OFF A NEW
HAMPSHIRE, A MINNESOTA OR
NEVADA, THEN BIDEN’S STARTING
POINT TONIGHT IS WHERE HILLARY
CLINTON FINISHED IN 2016.
232 ELECTORAL VOTES AND THEN THE
QUESTION SHIFTS AND IT BECOMES
WHERE IS JOE BIDEN ON OFFENSE?
THE ANSWER TO THAT WE KNOW.
YOU’RE LOOKING AT THE BATTLE
GROUND HERE, YOU ARE LOOKING AT
STATES THAT DONALD TRUMP WON IN
2016, THAT HE’S TRYING TO DEFEND
AND THAT THE POLLS COMING INTO
TODAY TO VARYING DEGREES SHOW
HIM IN TROUBLE IN.
CAN DONALD TRUMP HANG ON TO AT
LEAST 270 ELECTORAL VOTES WORTH
OF THESE STATES?
THE MOST IMMEDIATE PROBLEMS ON
THIS MAP FOR DONALD TRUMP WE’VE
BEEN SAYING THIS FOR AWHILE,
WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN,
PENNSYLVANIA, THREE STATES THAT
HE WON BY THE SKIN OF HIS TEETH
IN 2016, LESS THAN 1 POINT HIS
MARGIN IN EACH ONE OF THESE
STATES.
IF DONALD TRUMP DOES NOT ADD ANY
STATES FROM THE HILLARY CLINTON
COLUMN IN 2016, IF HE DOESN’T
PICK OFF ANY TONIGHT AND LOSES
THREE STATES, HE LOSES THE
ELECTION AND HE’S IN
PARTICULARLY TOUGH SHAPE
ACCORDING TO THE POLLS IN
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.
IF HE WERE TO LOSE JUST THOSE
TWO, HE WOULD BE ON THE CUSP OF
DEFEAT, TRUMP WOULD.
THAT SETS UP THE DRAMA THAT
WE’RE GOING TO SEE IN THE FIRST
FEW HOURS TONIGHT BECAUSE THIS
IS THE INTERESTING THING ABOUT
THE PANDEMIC ELECTION.
AS IMPORTANT AS WISCONSIN,
MICHIGAN AND PENNSYLVANIA ARE TO
THIS ELECTION, IT’S GOING TO
TAKE AWHILE TO GET THE RESULTS
THERE BECAUSE OF THE MAIL IN
BALLOT SITUATION IN
PENNSYLVANIA, IF IT’S VERY
CLOSE, IT COULD EVEN POTENTIALLY
TAKE A COUPLE DAYS.
WHAT WE THINK WE ARE GOING TO
GET A GOOD LOOK AT, THOUGH,
STARTING AT 7:00 EAST WERE
TONIGHT, JUST ABOUT ALL OF
FLORIDA EXCEPT THE PANHANDLE,
WE’RE GOING TO START SEEING A
LOT OF VOTES OUT OF FLORIDA.
WE’RE GOING TO GET A REALLY GOOD
LOOK IN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS
IN FLORIDA WHO IS WINNING, WHO
IS LOSING THERE.
NORTH CAROLINA IN THE EARLY
HOURS WE SHOULD GET A LOT FROM.
OHIO, GEORGIA POTENTIALLY, EVEN
TEXAS A LITTLE BIT LATER, 9:00,
10:00, 11:00 WE MIGHT GET A GOOD
LOOK AT TEXAS.
EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THESE
STATES, A BIG ELECTORAL COLLEGE
BATTLE GROUND WAS WON BY DONALD
TRUMP IN 2016 AND BECOMES GIVEN
WHAT WE OUTLINED HERE, THE
CHALLENGE IN THE GREAT LAKE
STATES A MUST-WIN STATE FOR THE
PRESIDENT.
IF HE DOES NOT PULL OFF A HAIL
MARRYCHY PASS OR FLIP HILLARY
CLINTON STATES, HE’S GOT TO GO
FIVE FOR FIVE IN THESE STATES.
HE DOESN’T NEED ONE OR SOME, HE
NEEDS EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM
AND THEN WE GET OUT WEST, YOU
CAN PROBABLY INCLUDE ARIZONA IN
THAT CATEGORY, AS WELL.
LOOK AT IT THIS WAY, THE
PRESIDENT EARLY ON TONIGHT IN A
BUNCH OF BIG STATES IS FACING
WHAT MAY VERY WELL AMOUNT TO
ELIMINATION CONTEST.
HE’S GOT TO WIN ONE AFTER THE
OTHER AFTER THE OTHER.
IF HE DOES PULL THEM ALL OFF, IF
HE RUNS THE TABLE IN THE
SOUTHEAST, GETS OHIO, GETS
ARIZONA, THEN THE DRAMA WILL
SHIFT TO THOSE GREAT LAKE
STATES.
THOSE TWO STATES THERE,
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN WHERE THE
POLLS HAVE REALLY PUT TRUMP IN
DIRE SHAPE AND THEN TO
PENNSYLVANIA, THE ONE THAT EVEN
HIS CAMPAIGN TALKS ABOUT IS A
MUST-WIN STATE IF TRUMP CAN
SWEEP EVERYTHING BEFORE THAT,
THAT WOULD THEN PUT PENNSYLVANIA
POTENTIALLY IN POSITION TO
SETTLE THE ELECTION.
IF TRUMP TRIPS UP, IF HE LOSES
FLORIDA, IF HE LOSES GEORGIA,
CAROLINA, OHIO, TEXAS, ANY OF
THESE STATES, THAT EFFECTIVELY
COULD BE IT FOR HIM.
>> STEVE KORNACKI, LET ME ASK
YOU FOLLOWING ON SOMETHING WE
DISCUSSED THIS WEEKEND WHEN WE
HAD SORT OF OUR FIRST ELECTION
NIGHT SHOW AND YOU SAID WHEN I
ASKED YOU ABOUT IT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT THAT IF THE PRESIDENT AND
HIS CAMPAIGN HAD A SORT OF
SLEEPER TARGET, THE ONE THAT
THEY THOUGHT THEY COULD REALLY
POTENTIALLY PULL OFF FROM THE
DEMOCRATS, IT MIGHT BE NEVADA.
WHAT’S THE EQUIVALENT FOR JOE
BIDEN?
LEAVING ASIDE WISCONSIN AND
PENNSYLVANIA AND MICHIGAN,
LEAVING ASIDE THOSE THREE STATES
THAT WE PAID SO MUCH ATTENTION
TO, THOSE OTHER STATES ON YOUR
MAP, WHERE IS BIDEN MOST
CONFIDENT OR WHERE DO THE POLLS
SHOW HIM MOST LIKELY TO PICK OFF
AN IMPORTANT TRUMP STATE?
>> HERE IS THE INTERESTING THING
IF YOU LOOK AT AND WANT TO
COMPARE WE TALK ABOUT NEVADA,
THE MOST RECENT POLL WE GOT OUT
OF NEVADA PUT JOE BIDEN AHEAD BY
SIX POINTS RIGHT THERE.
AND SO WHEN I SAID I THINK TRUMP
OF THOSE THREE NEVADA,
MINNESOTA, NEW HAMPSHIRE THAT
NEVADA WAS PROBABLY HIS BEST
SHOT AT GETTING A CLINTON STATE
IS BECAUSE SIX IS THE CLOSEST
THAT HE IS IN THOSE THREE
STATES.
THAT’S A DIFFERENT POSITION THAN
JOE BIDEN FINDS HIMSELF IN
BASICALLY EVERY STATE WE JUST
TALKED ABOUT.
IF YOU LOOK AT ARIZONA, IF YOU
LOOK AT TEXAS, FLORIDA, GEORGIA,
NORTH CAROLINA, PENNSYLVANIA,
MICHIGAN, OHIO, WISCONSIN, THE
ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION HERE
WHERE YOU SEE POLLS OF JOE BIDEN
TRAILING BY THAT KIND OF A
MARGIN IN ANY OF THESE STATES
WOULD BE IOWA WHERE THERE IS ONE
POLL OVER THE WEEKEND THAT PUT
JOE BIDEN DOWN BY SEVEN POINTS
AND WHAT PREVIOUSLY HAD THOUGHT
TO BE A BIT OF A TOSSUP STATE.
SO BIDEN’S POSITION IN THESE
BATTLE GROUND STATES IS
DIFFERENT AT LEAST IN THE POLLS
COMING INTO TODAY THAN TRUMP’S
IS IN THE BLUE STATES THAT HE’S
TRYING TO PICK OFF.
THAT’S WHY YOU DON’T SEE THEM IN
THE BATTLE GROUND RIGHT NOW AND
THAT’S WHIERY I SAY THE BURDEN I
ON TRUMP.
WE SAW STATES SUDDENLY BECOME
COMPETITIVE ON ELECTION NIGHT
AND THE POLLING RUNNING UP TO
THE ELECTION WASN’T SHOWING.
THE BURDEN IS ON TRUMP TO SHOW
US IN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHEN YOU GET
A POLL CLOSERLY TONIGHT TO SHOW
US IN MINNESOTA AND NEVADA THAT
SOMETHING IS HAPPENING THERE
THAT THE POLLING IS NOT PICKING
UP ON BECAUSE THOSE STATES LOOK
DIFFERENT IN THE POLLING THAN THE OTHER TRUMP WON BATTLE
THE OTHER TRUMP WON BATTLE