Here at VisualPolitik, we love talking about Asia, you know probably know that by now,
right?
And we like it because we are certain that this region has a lot to contribute to the
improvement of our world.
However, not everything is as good as it sounds.
In Asia while we can certainly see plenty of light, there are also lots of shadows...
And the largest shadow is that, without any doubt, that the area has become a huge powder
keg, ready to blow.
On the one hand, this area is spending more and more in weapons.
In fact, it is expected that, by 2020, the region will account for more than 30% of all
the world's military spending.
And, on top of that, it is also becoming a chessboard for geopolitics.
China and India are big, emergent powers, and with time they are demanding a larger
and larger international influence.
Putin's Russia has started to feel concerned by the Pacific and so has the United States…
Meaning, this area is extremely important.
On the other hand, there are many disagreements among the different countries in this region,
and it seems that lately they have been looking for any reason to start a fight.
We can find all kinds of conflicts here: economic,
territorial, historical…
China's conflict with Vietnam here, with Japan over there…
And then there is India; the situation of Taiwan; and the problems between Japan and
Russia.
Not forgetting the situation in Korea…
The list just grows longer and longer...
We’re going to talk about many of these, but today we are going to focus on the sleeping
giant…
Japan.
THE TWO NIGHTMARES OF JAPAN
Japan is the world's third largest economy.
Despite that, this country has had a modest role in international politics in the last
few decades.
However, the situation is changing, particularly for two reasons: China and North Korea.
First, there is the emergence of China as a superpower.
But why does Japan care about that?
Well, basically because the emergence of China has led to a setback in Japan's regional influence.
Further, both countries maintain a bitter
conflict over a small archipelago known as the Senkaku Islands.
“The Senkaku Islands are abandoned, but they are still a key area in the fishing industry,
they hold large deposits of petrol and gas, and they also are strategic in sea trade”)
Well, take a look at this chart to see how the military budget of both countries has
evolved in the last few years.
It will give you a better understanding of Japan’s concern about China’s emergence.
Second, and more recently, there is is North Korea.
Pyongyang, dear viewer, has been obsessed for the last 20 years, about developing unconventional
war capacities, these mainly being its nuclear capability.
For now, Korea has managed to create an atomic bomb of 30 kilotons, which is comparable to
twice the bomb of that was used on Hiroshima.
They have also succeeded in making ballistic missiles which can reach not only South Korea,
but also Japan.
In March 2017, North Korea launched 4 ballistic missiles against Japan.
It was somehow successful and 3 out of 4 of them reached Japanese waters, less than 200
miles from the coast.
Well, all of this is producing a real psychosis in Japan:
The Japanese government itself has started to conduct evacuation drills in the event
of a hypothetical attack and has even distributed a detailed guide to explain how Japanese citizens
should respond to a North Korean nuclear attack.
Tokyo says that people should have about 10
minutes to react, but that might be an overestimation...
“A missile may not be detected as soon as it leaves the launch pad.
Depending on the case, the warnings and alarms might only sound four or five minutes before
a missile arrives.”
Osaka Mayor Hirofumi Yoshimura - JAPAN TIMES
With all this going on, we shouldn't be surprised to find out Japan is acquiring many nuclear
shelters and equipment for purifying the air which are designed to fight radiation as well
as poisonous gas.
“Shinzo Abe, the Japanese Prime Minister has confirmed North Korea also has the ability
to launch sarin gas missiles” Japan Times
So, ignoring whether the North Korean threat is real or not, the reality is that China
and North Korea are perceived as being significant threats by Tokyo.
But… before explaining how the country is planning to fight these threats, let’s have
a look at what has been the foundation of their defense policy in the last few decades.
JAPAN, A PACIFIST COUNTRY
As you all know, Japan was one of the countries which lost WWII.
As a consequence of this defeat, the country had to to establish a constitution in 1947,
which is still in force today.
In this constitution it states that war and the use of the force is not be be used unless
in self-defence.
“Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese
people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation […] In order to accomplish
the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war
potential, will never be maintained”.
Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution This means that at first the idea was that
Japan couldn't even have an army.
The country's protection was the responsibility of the US...
However, the Korean War and the tension suffered during the years of the Cold War changed everything:
all of a sudden both Tokyo as well as Washington understood it was essential to form a support
force for the American Army in case Japan needed defence.
And that is how the Japanese Self-Defence Forces were born.
An army whose only possible purpose is defence.
But one thing is true, formally, the US still takes care of Japan's protection and keeps
more than 40,000 soldiers deployed in the country, and also maintains some its largest
military bases in Japan.
This is a force which, by the way, is co-financed by the government of Japan itself...
We could even say that Japan is the largest spearhead of the US in Asia.
However, the new threats Japan perceives in the region, from China and North Korea have
caused Japan to no longer be satisfied with this protection.
So, the question now is, how is Japan responding to these threats?
ABE´S NEW DIPLOMACY
To begin with, the Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe has started an unusual diplomatic
race to work against the growing influence of China.
For now, he has managed to improve the country’s relations with South Korea, to strengthen
its bonds with the US, and even bridge the gap existing with Putin’s Russia.
Japan maintains an intense dispute over the sovereignty of a small archipelago known as
the Kuril Islands which are now under Russian sovereignty.
In fact, the diplomacy Abe has started is so intense the country is now competing with
China in Africa.
(“Japan and China compete for African markets” East Asia Forum)
And, as a curious fact, Shinzo Abe was also the first international leader to meet with
Trump in the famous residence the American president owns in Florida.
It seems like, after this encounter, Abe managed
to win over the President and make him forget all the attacks he made against Japan when
he was still a candidate for the Presidency.
Because, one thing is true, Trump complained
quite a lot about Japan… but things can change.
(“We are committed to the security of Japan and all areas under its administrative control.
(..) The friendship between our two peoples runs very, very deep.”
Donald Trump.)
But of course, diplomacy is not always enough…
Japan’s Rearming?
And so, we finally reach the key point.
The Japan Self-Defence Forces are often thought of as some sort of small band of men…
But, really, nothing is further from the truth.
The Japanese army is larger than the army of France and the UK combined!
It is true that, given their name, we may not think they are important, but the abilities
and capacity of this strange army are impressive.
For many analysts, they are still the best
army in Asia…
Although China certainly competes for that top spot.
And look, Japan´s investment in defense is quite low, at less than 1% of its GDP, but
that is still a LOT of money!
Take a look at this: in 2016, Japan was the country with the 7th highest spendon defence.
In 2017, the government will give the forces the largest budget in its history, more than
5 trillion yens, which is around 45 US billion dollar.
And, of course, such a quantity in such a small and, by the way, very well trained army,
is enough for them to acquire some of the most modern systems available...
Like the F35; the best American drones; the Izumo class aircraft carriers or even the
new fifth generation fighter jet from (which Mitsubishi is developing).
“Japan reveals the prototype of its last furtive fighters” RT
The thing is that, since Abe became Prime Minister in 2012, he has had the clear idea
of leaving behind the pacifist character set by the Japanese constitution.
And this has happened:
In 2014, the Japanese government decided to stop all restrictions on the export of warfare
material, with the goal of starting a new Japanese military industry.
A bit later, in 2015, Abe also led a reform so that the Self-Defence Forces could operate
abroad and today they even have a military base in Djibouti.
And, of course, the military budget has increased again after many years of budget cuts.
But, not only this…
They are even thinking about changing the constitution.
(“The radical military shift of Japan echoes the ghosts of World War II”.
BBC)
So, What do you think?
Should Japan leave its pacifism aside?
Should Japan give in to Beijing?
Which country seems like a better ally for you: Japan or China?
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