>>> THAT'S UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT
VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY WARNING HIS
PEOPLE NOT TO LET THEIR GUARD
DOWN, DESPITE TALKS OF
DE-ESCALATION FROM THE KREMLIN.
JOINING US NOW, FORMER NATO
SUPREME ALLIED COMMANDER AND
RETIRED FOUR-STAR NAVY ADMIRAL
JAMES STAVRIDIS, HE'S A CHIEF
SECURITY ANALYST FOR NBC NEWS
AND MSNBC.
ADMIRAL, THANK YOU FOR JOINING
US ON "WAY TOO EARLY."
LET'S START WITH ZELENSKYY
EXPRESSING SKEPTICISM WITH
RUSSIA'S INDICATION THEY MIGHT
BE PULLING BACK SOME TROOPS.
THE WHITE HOUSE SHARES THOSE
DOUBTS AS REPORTED TODAY.
WHAT IS YOUR ANALYSIS OF THE
SITUATION?
>> THE PENTAGON SHARES THE SAME
DOUBTS.
JONATHAN, IT STARTS WITH THE
LIES AGAIN AND AGAIN FROM THE
RUSSIANS.
WHAT DID WE HEAR FOR MONTHS
LEADING UP TO THIS INVASION.
WE HEARD, OH, WE'RE NOT INVADING
WE'RE JUST GOING TO CONDUCT THE
MAJOR EXERCISES.
WE HAVE NO INTENTION OF
INVADING.
THAT'S A PACK OF LIES FROM THE
BEGINNING, THAT'S PROBLEM NUMBER
ONE, BELIEVING THE RUSSIANS,
PROBLEM NUMBER TWO, THEY SEE
EXACTLY WHERE THE UNITS ARE,
THEY'RE NOT SEEING PULLBACK.
THEY'RE SEEING THE UNITS KIND OF
SHIFT AROUND, REDISTRIBUTE.
I THINK PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY IS
SPOT-ON.
HE'S GOT TO KEEP THE PEOPLE ON
THEIR TOES, THEIR GAME AND
CONTINUE TO FIGHT.
>> CERTAINLY, THE CAPITOL IS AT
THREAT FOR LONG-RAM BOMBARDMENT.
WHAT'S YOUR SENSE OF IT, DO YOU
THINK THIS IS PERHAPS PUTIN
CHANGING FOCUS HERE?
OR IS IT MORE ABOUT ZEROING IN
ON THE DONBAS AND CRIMEA?
AND WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT
OVEREXTENDING IN THE FIRST
PLACE?
>> YEAH, PLAN "A" FAILED.
THAT'S THE ESSENCE OF WHAT
YOU'RE SEEING, PLAN "A" WAS
BLITZKRIEG ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
AND TAKE OVER THE GOVERNMENT AND
PUT IN PLACE A PUPPET REGIME.
FAILED.
PLAN "B," AS FAR AS I CAN SEE IS
TO CONSOLIDATE FORCES GET BACK
INTO DONBAS.
HE'S GOT A MORE SYMPATHETIC
TRANCHE OF UKRAINIAN POPULATION
THERE.
THESE ARE RUSSIAN-SPEAKING,
RUSSIAN-ETHNIC.
HE'S BUILT AN INFRASTRUCTURE
THERE SINCE THE INVASION OF
2014.
SO IT'S A SAFE ZONE FOR THE
RUSSIAN FORCES.
THE SADNESS HERE, JONATHAN, IT
MAKES MARIUPOL KEY BECAUSE
THAT'S DEAD IN THE CENTER OF
THAT DONBAS REGION.
IT'S NOT SYMPATHETIC TO THE
RUSSIANS TO SAY THE LEAST.
IT'S BEEN POUNDED TO DUST.
BUT LOOK FOR THE RUSSIANS TO
CONSOLIDATE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THAT GIVES PUTIN I THINK IN HIS
VIEW THE STRONGEST NEGOTIATING
POSITION GOING TO THE TALKS.
>> AND MORE ON THE MAP THERE,
THAT POTENTIAL LAND BRIDGE
BUILDING.
SO IT'S OBVIOUSLY THAT VLADIMIR
PUTIN OVERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH
BEFORE THE INVASION.
IT SEEMS THAT U.S. OFFICIALS DID
THE SAME.
I REPORTED TODAY THAT THEY
STARTED A REVIEW, ANALYSIS OF
HOW THEY COULD HAVE MISJUDGED
THE RUSSIAN FORCE THINKING IT
WAS FAR STRONGER THAN IT WAS.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> WELL, LET'S START BY FLIPPING
THE TABLE AND SAYING YOU GOT TO
GIVE A LOT OF CREDIT TO THE
UKRAINIANS.
WE SAY IN THE TRADE THAT THE
ENEMY GETS A VOTE.
AND SO THE UKRAINIANS, IN THIS
CASE, THE ENEMY OF THE RUSSIANS
OVERPERFORMED.
SO THAT'S POINT ONE.
POINT TWO IS YOU CAN MEASURE THE
RANGE OF A MISSILE SYSTEM.
YOU CAN MEASURE THE DISTANCE A
TANK CAN TRAVEL UNTIL FIVE DAYS.
YOU CAN'T REALLY MEASURE MORALE.
YOU CAN'T REALLY MEASURE
FIGHTING SPIRIT.
SO, I THINK THE INTELLIGENCE
COMMUNITY
I THINK THE INTELLIGENCE COMMIT
COMMUNITY KNEW THE METRICS OF
WAR BUT DID A NOT PERFECT JOB OF
CALCULATING HOW WELL THE
RUSSIANS WOULD ACTUALLY DO IN
COMBAT.
LAST POINT.
ADMIRALS LOVE TO CRITICIZE
GENERALS, BUT THE RUSSIAN
GENERALS REALLY FAILED.
BAD BATTLE PLAN.
YOU CAN'T REALLY CALCULATE THAT
BEFOREHAND.
THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY IS
DOING THE RIGHT THING.
THEY'LL SELF-ASSESS AND WILL BE
SELF-CRITICAL, I THINK, ON THIS.
THEY DO HAVE TO ANSWER TO ALL OF
US WHY THEY MISJUDGED SO MUCH.
>> ONE LAST QUICK ONE.
YOU JUST PRAISED THE FIGHTING
SPIRIT OF THE UKRAINIANS.
IT SEEMS THEY'VE BEEN ABLE TO
STAGE COUNTEROFFENSIVES.
WHAT TACTIC, WHAT WOULD YOU
ADVISE THEM IN TERMS OF A
STRATEGY, WHERE THEY SHOULD BE
PUSHING RIGHT NOW?
>> HERE'S A METAPHOR.
AMERICAN REVENUE.
THE RED COATS, BIG, MUSCULAR
FORCES, KIND OF STOMPING ALONG
IN THE RED COATS.
MINUTEMEN JUMP UP FROM BEHIND
THE BUSHES FIRING THEIR MUSKETS.
TODAY, THEY'RE FIRING THEIR
JAVELINS, FIRING THEIR STINGERS.
CONTINUE THE TACTICS THAT HAVE
BROUGHT YOU SUCCESS THUS FAR.
SMALL TROOP ENGAGEMENTS, KIND OF
SPECIAL FORCES, IF YOU WILL.
GET IN THERE, MIX IT UP, AND
CAUSE AS MANY CASUALTIES AS
POSSIBLE.
KEEP THOSE -- UGLY METAPHOR --