>>> 24 PAST THE HOUR, A NEW CNN POLL FINDS MORE THAN HALF OF
AMERICANS SAY THEY DISAPPROVE OF
PRESIDENT TRUMP’S JOB
PERFORMANCE.
PERFORMANCE. TRUMP’S DISAPPROVAL SITS AT 55%.
HIS APPROVAL RATING REMAINS
ALMOST UNCHANGED FROM LAST
MONTH, DOWN ONE POINT.
MEANWHILE, ALMOST SIX IN TEN
REGISTERED VOTERS POLLED SAID
THAT TRUMP DOES NOT DESERVE A
SECOND TERM IN OFFICE.
THAT’S INTERESTING.
THAT’S INTERESTING. 39% SAID HE DOES.
THERE’S A BRAND NEW QUINTUQUEN N
TEXAS, 45% AMONG TEXAS VOTERS.
50% SAY THEY DISAPPROVE OF
TRUMP’S JOB PERFORMANCE.
WHEN IT COMES TO THE DEMOCRATS’
RACE FOR PRESIDENT, JOE BIDEN
LEADS THE 2020 FIELD BY TEN
POINTS AT 28%.
SENATOR ELIZABETH WARREN FOLLOWS
IN SECOND PLACE AT 18%.
SENATOR BERNIE SANDERS AND
FORMER TEXAS CONGRESSMAN BETO
O’ROURKE SHARE THIRD PLACE WITH
12% OF TEXAS VOTERS BACKING
THEIR RESPECTIVE RUNS.
NEW POLLING FROM NEW HAMPSHIRE
SHOWS JOE BIDEN AND ELIZABETH
WARREN IN A STATISTICAL TIE.
THE LATEST EMERSON POLL HAS
BIDEN LEADING THE DEMOCRATIC
FIELD BY THREE POINTS AT 24% IN
THE FIRST IN THE NATION PRIMARY.
WARREN FOLLOWS AT 21%, AND
BERNIE SANDERS SITS IN THIRD
PLACE WITH 13% OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
VOTERS BACKING HIS RUN.
THE POLL ALSO TAKES A LOOK AT
HEAD TO HEADS AGAINST PRESIDENT
TRUMP WITH BIDEN LEADING TRUMP
BY TEN POINTS, 55 TO 45.
ANDREW YANG ALSO DEFEATS TRUMP
BY EIGHT POINTS.
ELIZABETH WARREN LOSES TO TRUMP
BY TWO POINTS.
I FEEL LIKE THAT LAST NUMBER IS
WORTH DISCUSSING.
WORTH DISCUSSING. >> I THINK IT IS WORTH
DISCUSSING.
DISCUSSING. WE’LL GET TO THAT THIS A SECOND.
WILLIE, LET’S TALK ABOUT THE
FIRST NUMBERS WE WENT THROUGH,
THE PRESIDENT’S REELECTED ABOUT
I THINK IT’S 38%, OVER 55% OF
AMERICANS DON’T THINK DONALD
TRUMP DESERVES RE-ELECTION.
HIS APPROVAL RATING ONCE AGAIN
IN THE 30s.
THIS IS, AGAIN, FOR SOMEBODY
WHO’S BEEN PRESIDENT FOR THREE
YEARS, THE OLD RULE USED TO BE
IF YOU REELECT HE’S BELOW 50%
YOU’RE IN BIG TROUBLE.
DONALD TRUMP’S REELECT
NATIONWIDE IS BELOW 40%, AND IN
A LOT OF THE SWING STATES WE’VE
SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS, IT’S ACTUALLY IN THE LOW
30s.
30s. I’M SORRY, IT DOESN’T MATTER HOW
MANY PEOPLE BLINDLY GIVE HIM
MONEY, THE MATRIX THAT THEY’RE
SPITTING OUT THERE, WHEN YOU
HAVE NUMBERS LIKE THAT, IT
REMINDS ME OF BRIT HUMES FAMOUS
SAYING, YOU CAN HAVE ALL THE DOG
FOOD COMMERCIALS YOU WANT, BUT
IF THE DOG DOESN’T EAT THE FOOD,
YOU’RE OUT OF LUCK.
>> WE’VE TALKED ABOUT THIS
BEFORE, PEOPLE ARE SO BITTEN BY
THE 2016 ELECTION AND BEING SO
WRONG ABOUT WHAT WAS GOING TO
HAPPEN THEY HESITATE EVEN AT
THIS PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE
THAT THE PRESIDENT’S NUMBERS ARE
JUST TERRIBLE, 39% AGAIN.
HE’S NEVER CROSSED 50 PRESH% IN
MAJOR POLL.
MAJOR POLL. 39% AND ALMOST 60% OF AMERICANS,
6-0, SAY HE SHOULD NOT BE
REELECTED.
REELECTED. HE SHOULD NOT BE RETURNED TO
OFFICE.
OFFICE. SO WHEN YOU LOOK AT THOSE
DEMOCRATIC NUMBERS ON THE OTHER
SIDE, IT SETS UP A VERY
INTERESTING DEBATE TOMORROW
NIGHT, JOE, WHERE FOR THE FIRST
TIME WE WILL SEE JOE BIDEN ON
THE STAGE WITH ELIZABETH WARREN,
ON THE STAGE WITH BERNIE
SANDERS, AND THEY CAN HAVE AN
HONEST TO GOODNESS DEBATE ABOUT
SORT OF THE MODERATE WING OF THE
PARTY IN JOE BIDEN AND THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF IT WITH
ELIZABETH WARREN AND BERNIE
SANDERS.
SANDERS. BUT THIS IS PLAYING OUT THE WAY
IT’S PLAYED OUT ALL SUMMER.
JOE BIDEN HOLDING STEADY AT THE
TOP WITH ELIZABETH WARREN
SURGING.
SURGING. >> YOU KNOW, MIKE BARNICLE, YOU
TALK TO DEMOCRATS AND I DON’T
KNOW YOU DO AS WELL, WE ALL DO,
AND IT SEEMS AS IF -- I MEAN,
THIS IS JUST -- I’M JUST
REPORTING WHAT EVERYBODY’S
SAYING BEHIND THE SCENES, THAT
IS JOE BIDEN’S CAMPAIGN SEEMS
LIKE A SLOW MOTION TRAIN
DERAILMENT, THAT THEY BELIEVE
HE’S NOT GOING TO MAKE IT TO THE
END.
END. IT’S JUST WHAT YOU HEAR FROM
ALMOST EVERY DEMOCRATIC INSIDER,
AND THEY BELIEVE AND MANY FEAR
THAT ELIZABETH WARREN IS MOVING
TOWARD THIS NOMINATION
EVENTUALLY.
EVENTUALLY. IF THAT, IN FACT, IS THE CASE,
THOSE NEW HAMPSHIRE NUMBERS,
IT’S ONLY ONE POLL, BUT THOSE
NEW HAMPSHIRE NUMBERS IN THE
HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUP WITH TRUMP
ACTUALLY UNDERLINE SOMETHING
THAT I HEAR FROM DEMOCRATS, A
GROWING FEAR THAT SHE’S RUNNING
A STRONG CAMPAIGN BUT WILL NOT
BE A STRONG GENERAL ELECTION
CANDIDATE.
CANDIDATE. HERE YOU SEE EVEN ANDREW YANG
HANDILY DEFEATS DONALD TRUMP.
HEY, DONALD TRUMP, YOU’RE
GETTING POUNDED BY ANDREW I
CAN’T THINK.
CAN’T THINK. HE’S PROMISING TO GIVE PEOPLE
LIKE WHATEVER THEY WANT, AND
YOU’RE LOSING TO HIM.
YOU WANT $5,000?
OKAY, I’LL GET YOU 5.
YOU WANT $10,000?
SURE.
SURE. NO SWEAT, BABY.
YOU’RE LOSING TO HIM: BUT YOU GO
DOWN TO ELIZABETH WARREN, THE
PERSON THAT MOST DEMOCRATIC
INSIDERS SAY RIGHT NOW SEEMS TO
BE ON THE PATHWAY TO WINNING THE
NOMINATION, AND SHE’S LOSING,
AND SHE’S THE NEXT DOOR
NEIGHBOR.
NEIGHBOR. THAT’S SORT OF LIKE SHE’S GOT
THE HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE.
CAN YOU EXPLAIN THAT NUMBER?
>> YEAH, LET’S STIPULATE FIRST,
JOE THAT ELIZABETH WARREN HAS
RUN AN INCREDIBLY GREAT
CAMPAIGN.
CAMPAIGN. >> INCREDIBLE.
>> INCREDIBLE. INCREDIBLE.
INCREDIBLE. >> SHE WAS WRITTEN OFF EARLIER
THIS YEAR IN THE SPRING, AND
SHE’S COME CHARGING FORWARD.
HER RALLIES ARE ELECTRIC.
SHE IS SPECIFIC WITH HER
PROPOSALS.
PROPOSALS. SHE DOES INDEED HAVE A PLAN FOR
MOST THINGS, BUT THERE’S A
LETHAL ASPECT TO HER CAMPAIGN
WHEN YOU TAKE THE THING TO THE
COUNTRY IN THE FALL, AND IT’S
THINGS LIKE MEDICARE FOR ALL.
IT’S DECRIMINALIZATION ALONG THE
BORDER, ELEMENTS LIKE THAT WHERE
SHE’S GOT TO FIGURE OUT A WAY TO
COME BACK TO THE MIDDLE, AND
THAT BRINGS YOU TO JOE BIDEN.
THAT’S WHERE HE IS.
THAT’S WHERE HE’S RUN HIS
CAMPAIGN SINCE THE DAY HE
ANNOUNCED.
ANNOUNCED. HE’S A MODERATE.
THIS IS A MODERATE COUNTRY.
YOU SAW THAT EVIDENCE YESTERDAY
IN NORTH CAROLINA, WHICH GAVE
EVERY PERSON WORKING FOR THE
DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND THE
REPUBLICAN PARTY AN OUTLINE OF
WHERE TO GO TO TARGET THEIR
VOTERS AND GET OUT THE VOTE IN
THE FALL.
THE FALL. THE SUBURBAN VOTERS, THE CITY
VOTERS, THEY’RE GOING TO GO
DEMOCRAT.
DEMOCRAT. YOU KNOW WHERE THE REPUBLICANS
ARE GOING TO GO.
>> YEAH, SORRY ABOUT THAT, MIKE.
SO I’M TIRED FROM STAYING UP
WATCHING THE RED SOX LOSE
ANOTHER GAME LAST NIGHT.
>> YEAH.
>> YEAH. >> THAT WAS A TOUGH ONE.
SO WE AT LEAST GOT ONE INNING.
MIRA SAYS WE SHOULD PUT AN 11th
PODIUM ON STAGE TONIGHT SINCE
CASHEN SURVIVED AN INNING.
DON’T BRING UP YANKEE’S
BASEBALL, WE DON’T WANT TO HEAR
ABOUT IT.
ABOUT IT. >> LAST NIGHT WAS A ROUGH NIGHT,
I WON’T TALK ABOUT IT.
>> THERE IS A PROBLEM, THOUGH,
AGAIN, I’M ONLY TALKING ABOUT
DEMOCRATS, THAT THEY WON’T --
MOST OF THEM WON’T SAY IT ON THE
AIR, MOST OF THEM WON’T SAY IT,
BUT REAL CONCERNS THAT ELIZABETH
WARREN’S RUNNING A GREAT RACE.
SHE’S RUNNING THE STRONGEST
CAMPAIGN
CAMPAIGN CAMPAIGN.
CAMPAIGN. THE CONCERNS ABOUT JOE BIDEN
KEEP RISING.
KEEP RISING. THAT’S WHY THIS THIRD DEBATE IS
SO EXTRAORDINARILY IMPORTANT TO
HIM.
HIM. THERE ARE A LOT OF DEMOCRATS WHO
FEAR THAT BIDEN’S GOING TO
COLLAPSE.
COLLAPSE. WARREN’S GOING TO WIN, AND THEN
THEY’RE GOING TO HAVE A MATCHUP
WHERE ELIZABETH WARREN GETS
BLOWN AWAY IN STATES LIKE TEXAS
AND STATES LIKE WISCONSIN AND
STATES LIKE PENNSYLVANIA THAT
REPUBLICANS SHOULD BE LOSING.
>> I HEAR THE SAME THING, AND I
THINK THE TENSION FOR AN
ELIZABETH WARREN IS IF SHE WERE
TO GET THE NOMINATION, IS SHE
ABLE TO DO THE PIVOT, THE
CANDIDATES HISTORICALLY HAVE
DONE AND NOT LOSE HER BASE AND
PERSUADE OTHERS THAT SHE’S
LEGITIMATE.
LEGITIMATE. I THINK THERE’S ALSO THE
QUESTION, JOE, THAT IF YOU’RE
RIGHT THAT JOE BIDEN DOES
ULTIMATELY FADE, HIS SUPPORT IS
BROADER THAN IT IS DEEPER, ONE
OF THE QUESTIONS IS WHEN AND
HOW, AND IS THERE TIME FOR
SOMEBODY ELSE TO STEP UP AND
CLAIM THE CENTRIST ALTERNATIVE
TO THE PROGRESSIVES, WHETHER
IT’S KAMALA HARRIS OR SOMEBODY
ELSE.
ELSE. SO THAT TO ME IS ALSO ANOTHER
SUB TEXT OF THE DEBATE THIS WEEK
IS DO WE BEGIN TO SEE A CENTRIST
ALTERNATIVE TO JOE BIDEN AND TO
EITHER ELIZABETH WARREN OR
BERNIE SANDERS?
BERNIE SANDERS? >> THE OTHER POSSIBILITY IS JOE
BIDEN DOES REALLY WELL AND FOR
DEMOCRATS THAT IS THE BEST BET
BECAUSE IT’S GOING TO BE PRETTY
HARD FOR AN ELIZABETH WARREN OR
A KAMALA HARRIS TO ESTABLISH
THAT COMFORT LEVEL WITH PERHAPS
THE PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR TRUMP
WHO NEED A PLACE TO GO, WHO
WON’T DO IT AGAIN.
THEY’LL VOTE FOR BIDEN.
I’M NOT SURE THEY’LL VOTE FOR
ANYBODY ELSE IN THE FIELD.
THE HOPE FOR DEMOCRATS, THE BEST
HOPE IS THAT BIDEN GETS REALLY
STRONG ON THE STAGE.
>> WHAT DONALD TRUMP’S TEAM
THINKS IS EVEN IF THEY DON’T
VOTE FOR BIDEN, RIGHT, THEY WILL
STAY HOME THINKING, WELL, BIDEN
ISN’T A, QUOTE, SOCIALIST.
BIDEN IS NOT GOING TO TAKE AWAY
MY FAMILY’S HEALTH INSURANCE.
BIDEN IS NOT GOING TO MAKE US --
>> COMFORT LEVEL.
>> -- FIND A NEW PEDIATRICIAN
FOR OUR CHILDREN, BIDEN IS NOT
GOING TO DECRIMINALIZE ILLEGAL
IMMIGRATION.
IMMIGRATION. I’M NOT GOING TO VOTE FOR THE
GUY, BUT I CAN’T VOTE FOR DONALD
TRUMP EITHER, THE GUY WHO’S
ACTED TOO CRAZY.
I’M GOING TO STAY AT HOME.
>> BIDEN’S THE BEST CARE
SCENARIO FOR DEMOCRATS.
IF IT’S ELIZABETH WARREN OR
BERNIE SANDERS, THEY WILL
ACTUALLY MOTIVATE PEOPLE WHO
WERE SKEPT CALICAL ON TROUFRPUMP
OUT AND VOTE.
>> M COG UP, A LOT TO DISCUSS
WITH OUR NEXT GUEST, FORMER
HOMELAND SECURITY SECRETARY JEH
JOHNSON IS STANDING BY.
AND U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY 18
YEARS AFTER 9/11.