Hey everybody,
ABC10 meteorologist Brendan Men, chef here,
with a look at Hurricane Hillary.
Yes, now Hurricane Hillary off
the coast of Mexico.
Here's what it looks like as of
about noon Pacific Time on Thursday.
One of the things that immediately
jumps out at this image,
if you're thinking about what a
classic tropical cyclone looks
like is the lack of an eye until
we get right until about 12:00.
So over the last six hours or so,
looks like Hillary kind of
shed its eye a little bit.
And this is what happens when
hurricanes start to strengthen rapidly.
And this is something that
we're definitely going to be
watching already a category two.
And it is expected to make it according
to the latest National Hurricane Center
cone all the way to major hurricane status,
which is category three or above.
And in Hillary's case,
towards about a Category 4.
So here is the storm over the last six hours.
Again,
you can see there was no eye.
It really had one and then it shed it
and now it's redeveloping a new one.
And this is the sign of a
hurricane that is undergoing what
we call rapid intensification.
So here's another look at it,
a little easier to see the individual
bands in the storm itself here.
So this is as of 12:00 PM Pacific
Time off the coast of Mexico
bringing some rain and wind.
But really the story is where it is headed.
You can see it's going to
travel up the coast of Mexico,
maybe interact with Baja a little
bit and then start to make its
way inland into California.
Now Southern California is likely
at this point in time things.
I'm going to say this a lot,
but I'm going to say it for
the first time right now.
Things are likely to change.
And things will change as we work
through the weekend and we get closer
to Hillary actually making landfall in
or around to the state of California.
But as things stand right now,
here's what the cone looks like.
You can see we're still
expecting major hurricane status,
a Category 4 storm by Friday morning.
So just within the next 24 hours or less,
we already expect the storm be a
Category 4 going to maintain its
strength through Saturday morning.
Then between Saturday and Sunday morning,
it is expected to start to weaken.
And certainly by the time we
get Sunday into Monday and it
approaches the California coast,
that's when we really expect
to see a lot of that weakening.
But as things stand,
you can see San Diego,
parts of Southern California,
the deserts of Southern California
in the cone,
Sacramento not quite in the cone,
but certainly parts of Eastern
Sacramento County and into the
Sierra are in that cone of concern.
Now up here,
we're not talking major wind impacts.
We're not talking significant
rain impacts necessarily.
But certainly is there a chance of rain?
Yes. Is there a chance for
some stronger winds with this?
Yes, with these thunderstorms that are
are forecast or could move through,
there's still a lot of coulds here
as we break down the forecast.
Important to say this does not happen
very often that we get a storm that
holds together and makes its way
towards the state of California.
So it's important to say there's a lot
of coulds with this forecast still.
It is still several days away.
This is just how things stand right now.
Here's the spaghetti models.
And so if you're not familiar with these,
each individual line is an
individual model run.
We usually talk about the GFS,
the American model, the euro,
the European model. Both of those are there.
You just saw them update with the latest run.
I'm going to say this, seeing this
for the first time with that new run,
there's a little more consensus in it.
And one of the things I noticed
this red one here, this is the Avno,
that's the GFS model,
this is the American model for hurricanes.
I noticed that this has actually brought
it back West a little bit compared to
where it was with the previous run.
This is going to happen.
We talked about a minute ago
just how the storm is undergoing
this rapid intensification,
how it's building a new eyewall.
What happens is as these
storms build an eyewall,
it starts to lack that center of
rotation just a little bit and it makes
it difficult for the weather models
to pick up on as it starts to reform.
As things start to organize
with the storm a little bit,
the models pick up on that.
They pick up that, hey,
this is where the center of the storm is.
This is where we're focusing our attention.
And so when it starts those model runs,
when it has that eyewall,
when it's undergone that incentification,
that's when we start to see
more consensus in the models.
And that was pretty cool that you
actually got to see that update with
me right now just for the first time.
But notice the spaghetti models
are bringing it in towards the
state of California.
And again,
there is a westward shift as of
the latest run that we just saw.
There was a westward shift there.
That's important to note because it
does mean we will see some more if
it sticks to that westward shift,
we would likely see more wind and rain
impacts down near Southern California.
Now I want to show you sea
surface temperatures normally.
So we talked about this with El
Nino and we look at anomalies.
That's not what we're looking at.
We're looking at the actual temperature
of the surface of the ocean.
And really for hurricanes to
form and strengthen,
you want it to be 80 degrees or warmer.
Well, right now you see where Hillary is at.
And if the storm is sitting
in 86 degree Fahrenheit
water right now, that is more
than enough hurricane fuel for
this storm to rapidly strengthen.
You also notice it is
off the coast of Mexico.
It's not near the coast,
it's off the coast.
That gives it plenty of room to
just really absorb all of that
very warm water as it stays there.
But as we saw,
that track is going to bring it
up off the coast of Baja and
in towards Southern California
by the start of next work week.
But the water off the coast
of northern Baja and Southern
California is only about 70 degrees.
That is not enough to sustain
a hurricane and that's why we
typically don't see hurricanes
make it all the way up here.
It's certainly not held together like that.
We get remnants,
but we don't usually get them held
together near tropical storm strength.
Well, as soon as Hillary moves
into this colder water,
it's going to start to weaken very,
very quickly.
And that's what we saw on that cone,
right.
It's gonna make it up towards the four
major hurricane status gonna cross
over into that cooler water and it's
gonna start to dissipate very quickly.
Let's talk some headlines right now.
As we talked about undergoing
that intensification,
major hurricane status is likely with
the storm for California impacts.
Still some uncertainty,
but it does look like Southern
California is going to see likely
some tropical storm impacts here in
terms of wind and some rain as well.
Northern California,
there's certainly a chance of
rain depending on the track.
If it's more westerly,
we have a better chance of seeing some rain.
If it's more easterly,
we're going to have less of
a chance of seeing some rain.
But nonetheless,
that chance right now is there.
I give it about a 20 to 30% chance
that we actually have some rain
in and around Sacramento at least
Monday and or Tuesday of next week.
Certainly that humidity is going
to the increase.
This is a tropical system, right?
You saw that water there,
86 degrees Fahrenheit.
Even as the storm is rapidly
dissipating and coming to an end as
it moves over Northern California,
there is going to be humidity
associated with this storm.
We thought this week was humid.
Just wait until we get to Monday, Tuesday.
I would expect things to be
much more humid by then.
The uncertainty though, it is days away.
There is so much time for things to change.
Track can go E it can go back West,
it can go back east again.
And that is all going to shift.
How much rain we're talking
about for Southern California,
for Northern California,
it's going to change how much
wind we're talking about.
Certainly for Southern California,
if it goes in more easterly,
less wind impacts for places like San Diego,
Los Angeles, Santa Barbara.
If it goes more westerly,
more wind impacts for San Diego,
LA, Santa Barbara,
and certainly for a mountain ranges down
there. But Speaking of mountains,
hurricanes hate mountains.
They do not do well with mountains.
And it's really important to note.
Look at the terrain of Baja all
the way up into the United States,
into Southern California.
And of course we know about the Sierra.
We sit in a valley.
Of course mountains are
not good for hurricanes.
What happens is it disrupts that wind
flow and it can actually weaken them.
They can steer them in odd directions.
And so if the storm,
if Hurricane Hillary starts to approach
Baja a little closer than may be expected,
it could actually start to
shear the storm and weaken it.
Maybe steering it in an odd direction,
bringing it inland sooner,
maybe kicking it out just to
to the ocean a little more.
That's just something we got to watch.
But we see this a lot in the Atlantic, right?
We see this when a hurricane approaches Cuba,
certainly western Cuba.
The mountains of Cuba really
weaken these storms very quickly,
kind of helps protect Florida in that way.
We see this with Puerto Rico as well,
Very mountainous,
right?
A storm moves over Puerto Rico and
it really just loses a lot of its energy.
Hurricane Maria a few years ago,
comes to mind when we talk about
how strong a storm can be when it
approaches a mountain range and
then how quickly it can weaken
after it hits mountain range.
So the mountains all the way from Baja
into Southern California are going
to play a huge role in terms of what
this storm does, how strong it is.
If it's more westerly,
if it's more offshore,
it's going to have less of that
frictional force generated by that
storm brushing up against the mountains.
If it's more westerly,
less force,
stronger potential tropical storm as
it approaches Southern California
and in towards Northern California.
If it's more easterly and it rides
the mountains all the way up,
that's just going to destroy that storm.
It will likely not even be tropical
storm status by the time it gets to
Southern California at that point.
If it rides the mountains of Baja
all the way up,
if it's somewhere in the middle,
maybe just off the coast,
we're likely still talking tropical
storm strength and some rain impacts
and wind for Southern California.
There's so much to this puzzle right now,
this forecast. There's a lot here.
It's important to stay tuned
through the weekend.
We're going to do these digital
updates every single day.
I'll see you every single day,
Friday, Saturday,
Sunday and Monday with these updates.
And of course you can watch it
on the ABC10 Plus app as well.
Shout out if you are watching on ABC10 Plus.
As we look at Futurecast again,
there is time for this to change.
But here's where the storm is
headed as things stand.
Low pressure off the coast,
California, high pressure,
strong high pressure.
By the way,
over the middle part of the United
States, you can see the wind arrows.
Where is it going?
Right over California.
That is where that storm is
right now forecast to move.
So here is what Sunday,
about 8:30 in the morning looks like.
Here's Hurricane Hillary off
the coast of Baja. And again,
this is all mountains right here, right?
If you've been there, you know it.
It's all mountains.
And so if it rides the mountain range,
it'll be a little weaker
if it stays out to shore.
Us we talked about a little stronger,
but notice we start to get some of
that tropical moisture moving up
across even mountains into California,
even into the Sierra.
A little bit potentially for Sunday morning,
but the focus of the storm
still S off the coast of Baja.
Now Monday morning, 24 hours later,
that low pressure system is
where that storm is headed.
It's going to get wrapped in with
that low off the coast and that's
going to help to spin up some rain.
The high pressure is a very strong one.
It is not moving.
According to the latest models.
It is going to stay there,
which pretty much puts northern
Mexico in the northern Mexico,
Arizona and Utah kind of out
of play for the storm.
As things stand right now,
If that high doesn't move,
it's not going to approach
any of these states.
They'll maybe get a little rain,
but the focus is going to be more westerly.
So tropical storm strength as
it stands now for Monday morning
and you can see all the rain.
This is the American model,
the GFS,
you can see all the rain that
is on the model right now as it
approaches Southern California.
It even holds together with
some of that rain as it scoots
through Northern California.
Again, talked about that,
right,
maybe 20,
maybe 30% chance of rain right
now for parts of the valley,
certainly a little better for the
Sierra because it helps to lift
that moisture up regardless of rain.
You can see why it's going to be humid
because we have all that tropical
moisture in and around our region.
But notice that high pressure
still sits right there.
So that's why that storm is headed,
where it's headed.
That's where things stand right now as of
Thursday late morning, early afternoon.
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Thanks for watching. I'll see you tomorrow.