SERIOUSLY.
>> IT WILL BE A SERIOUS
DEVELOPMENT.
THANKS, JACQUI.
JAMES CARAFANO IS HERE FROM THE
HERITAGE FOUNDATION.
IF YOU THINK OF CHINA AND HOW
MUCH ITS ECONOMY AND STRENGTH IS
BUILT ON THE FINANCIAL DEALS
THAT IT HAS HAD WITH ALL OF
THESE WESTERN NATIONS, THAT’S
THEIR BREAD AND BUTTER.
WHY WOULD THEY RISK COMPROMISING
THAT SEEING THE SAME SANCTIONS
THAT RUSSIA HAS TO JOIN THIS
FIGHT?
A FIGHT WE’RE TOLD THAT THEY
REALLY WINCE AT IN THE
PERFORMANCE OF VLADIMIR PUTIN IN
GENERAL?
>> I THINK YOU’RE ASKING THE
WRONG QUESTION.
LIKE WHAT WOULD THEY RISK?
THE CHINESE DON’T WANT TO RISK
ANYTHING.
HERE’S THE TWO THINGS THAT WE
THINK WE KNOW FOR SURE.
ONE IS THAT THE LAST THING CHINA
WANTS IS TO SEE RUSSIA
HUMILIATED.
RUSSIA IS THEIR STALKING HORSE
IN EUROPE.
THEY’RE LOOKING TO RUSSIA TO
DIVIDED A DISTRACTED EUROPE.
SO RUSSIA IS DOING THEIR WORK
FOR THEM.
THEY WOULD HAD TO SEE THAT BE
RESERVE.
CHINA WILL DO ANYTHING IT CAN
FOR RUSSIA THAT IT CAN’T BE HELD
ACCOUNTABLE FOR.
SO YOU BETTER BELIEVE WHATEVER
THEY DO, THEY WILL TRY TO
DISGUISE IT IN A WAY NOT TO GIVE
PEOPLE A CLEAR SHOT AT THEM.
HERE’S THE PROBLEM WITH
EVERYTHING I JUST HEARD FROM
EVERYBODY THAT JUST SAID WHAT WE
MIGHT DO.
THIS IS THE RUSSIANS AND THE
CHINESE AND THE IRANIANS.
THEY REACT TO WHAT WE DO, NOT
WHAT WE SAY.
IF YOU WANT TO GET THEIR
ATTENTION, YOU HAVE TO DO
SOMETHING TO THEM.
IF WE REALLY WANTED TO PREVENT
CHINA FROM HELPING RUSSIA, HOLD
THEM ACCOUNTABLE.
THEN THEY WOULD HAVE TO COME
BACK TO US AND BEG FOR RELIEF.
THREATENING THEM JUST SAYS --
SIGNALS TO THEM, HOW CAN I MAKE
SURE MY DEFENSES ARE GOOD TO
SURVIVE THIS.
THIS IS STATE CRAFT MALFEASANCE.
>> IT IS WHAT IT IS AND NOW
CHINA IS INVOLVED.
YOU THINK THEY LOOK AT THAT AND
SAY THAT’S ONE THING WE DON’T
WANT.
THAT’S ONE THING WE’RE BEING
OVERT ABOUT THE AID, BUYING
RUSSIAN OIL AFTER SANCTIONS KICK
IN.
BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING SO OVERT
TO TRIGGER THE SAME RESPONSE.
IT’S ONE THING TO HIT RUSSIAN
THAT WAY.
FOR CHINA, IT’S QUITE ANOTHER.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> YOU SIGNALS THEM A PROBLEM TO
WORK THEIR WAY AROUND.
SO THEY CAN HIDE IT.
THEY CAN GO TO COUNTRIES NOW AND
THREATEN THEM AND SAY IF YOU GO
WITH THE AMERICANS, WE WILL
HAMMER YOU.
THEY CAN BRIBE PEOPLE.
SO THE POINT IS BY JUST SAYING I
MIGHT DO SOMETHING, YOU’RE
TELEGRAPHING TO THE ENEMY WHAT
THEY KNOW THAT THEY HAVE TO WORK
AROUND.
THAT’S NOT THE WAY TO --
>> Neil: JUST TO BE CLEAR, HOW
WOULD CHINA TO THAT?
IT WOULD TRY TO FIND A THIRD
PARTY WAY TO GET WEAPONS OR
MILITARY HELP?
IT’S ALREADY ACKNOWLEDGED, I
GUESS AND YOU’RE THE EXPERT THAT
THEY’RE GOING TO MAKE UP FOR A
LOT OF THE LOSS OF OIL CUSTOMERS
RUSSIA WILL HAVE.
THEY CAN’T COME CLOSE TO LOSING
THE WORLD AS IT STANDS.
HOW WILL CHINA PLAY THIS?
>> THEY WILL DO EVERYTHING
POSSIBLE UNDER THE TABLE SO IT’S
NOT READILY APPARENT.
IF IT IS DONE, THEY WILL DENY IT
TO GIVE PEOPLE DENIABILITY NOT
TO MAKE THE HARD DECISIONS TO
SANCTION THEM.
THEY’RE GOING TO RETURN AROUND
AND TALK TO COUNTRIES THROUGH
THE BACK DOOR AND THREATEN THEM.
IF THEY GO WITH THE UNITED
STATES, THERE WILL BE
REPERCUSSIONS.
THE ONE THING THAT THE CHINESE
ARE BANKING ON IS THE WORLD HAS
A SHORT MEMORY.
ONCE THEY GET THROUGH THIS
PAINFUL EXPERIENCE WITH THE
UKRAINE, THAT THE UNITED STATES
AND THE WEST WILL JUST GO BACK
TO DOING BUSINESS WITH CHINA AND
SLEEP WALK THROUGH HISTORY.
THEY WANT TO REMIND PEOPLE AFTER
ALL OF THIS IS OFF THE FRONT
PAGES, THEY WILL STILL BE THERE.
THEY HAVE A LOT OF CARDS TO
PLAY.
EVERY TIME WE LET THEM DECIDE
WHAT TO DO AND WE REACT TO THAT,
YOU’RE VIOLATING THE FIRST RULE
OF WARFARE, WHICH IS MAKE YOUR