Thanks so much for joining us here on 9 News
Plus I'm meteorologist Chris Bianki here in
the 9 News Weather Center now big question.
I get all the time and I mean all the time
on social media is whether or not we're
going to have a lamina again, and if so,
how that would impact our upcoming winter.
And I know it's the middle of July and
we're sitting here talking about the
upcoming winter, but here in Colorado,
obviously we are very dependent on
every snowflake, every inch of snow.
To provide water to really just
kind of conserve our way of life.
So I know snow is critical not
just for skiing,
but of course for water resources
for so many other reasons.
And for that reason I do want to
get into a bit more detail about the
fact that we're very likely going to
be looking at a La Nina yet again.
Give you a little bit of an idea
and a bit of an overview here.
The main meteorological
enterprises around the world,
the main governmental meteorological
meteorological enterprises around the world,
are putting it at about a 60 to 65.
It's a chance that we will be looking
at our third straight La Nina this
upcoming winter and getting three
straight manias is almost unheard of.
Only happened twice since 1950,
so we're very likely to be
looking at our 3rd St Lamia now.
With that in mind,
let's start off with what the
heck is aligning to begin with,
so that's the key.
I think thing and how it drives the weather.
So the La Nina and how it impacts
Colorado weather.
Well, in order to figure out what Alanna is,
you got to go all the way to the eastern.
Pacific Ocean now what happens
in a low medium is that you
have cooler than average ocean
temperatures in the Eastern Pacific.
That's it.
It's as simple as that.
Just means that we've got cooler than
average sea surface temperatures in
the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean.
But what that lends to or leads to
is this huge domino effect of weather
that affects the whole world because
of the Pacific Ocean is by far the
biggest body of water in the world,
and that has impacts first.
Leading to weaker east to West trade winds,
which means more thunderstorms,
more moisture for Indonesia for Malaysia,
for the Philippines,
for southeastern Asia and even
Northern Australia,
and that in turn leads to this
again big domino effect.
Snowball effect of weather that
ultimately tends tends to lead to
drier than average conditions for the
southern and western United States now.
Colorado probably leans a little
bit more South,
but we're kind of right on the
border of where those La Nina and
El Nino impacts tend to intersect.
So in an average typical La Nina winter,
and by the way,
this is what we saw a lot of
this past winter.
What tends to happen is that you
generally will get an active winter in the
Northwestern and Midwestern United States,
so Ohio, Indiana, Illinois,
Kentucky, Tennessee, Tennessee,
a lot more moisture because the jet
stream lifts a little further north.
And that leads to more rain
for not only the Midwest,
but also at the Pacific Northwest.
Meantime, the jet stream just doesn't
move as far South as it usually does,
which means here, in Colorado and
throughout much of the southern US,
we tend to get left alone by those impacts.
But, and this is again, really worth
emphasizing here in Colorado, again,
geographically you look at the United States.
We're right, kind of.
We lean a little further South,
but we're kind of in the middle,
so we are on the fringe effects
of a lot of these.
Impact so.
If the jet stream leans say 100 miles further
South than in a typical La Nina winter,
that can often that could lead to
a bit of a boom of winter for us.
In fact,
here in Denver you might remember
this past winter we had basically
nonstop snow between the beginning
of January and the end of March,
and that's because the jet stream
just kind of set-up overhead,
and that meant that we kept
getting storm after storm after
storm along the Front Range.
But you had South of I-70
and southern Colorado.
And wants the same Christos,
mostly got skunked by a lot of these storms.
But here in Denver along the Front
Range and throughout much of Northern
Colorado had a pretty good winter because
of some of those repeated storms.
Just because of that jet stream.
So again going,
let's go back to this for a
quick second here again,
exactly where that jet stream
sets up determines whether
or not we get a big winter.
Now a la Nina.
Going back to this map here for
a quick second tends to push the
jet stream a bit further north,
but notice again,
even in this typical angina winter
pattern that jet stream is basically already.
Clipping Colorado so Long story
short is I I mentioned these
sorts of typical impacts.
Normally if I tell somebody that
there's an Al Nino or La Nina coming up,
we arrive at these huge conclusions.
But because the jet stream even in a
La Nina winter and can lean a little
further north, it's still really,
really close to Colorado.
So all it takes is a small
divergences from that average path
to give us either a big winter
or to completely skunk us.
So hopefully that gives you an idea
about how difficult making big
assumptions can be from Alan Nino.
Ornel Nino is for Colorado specifically,
so again impacts vary by year.
Vary widely again where exactly the
jet stream is determines whether or
not we get a lot of snow or not, nor.
Northern Colorado tends to end up getting.
More snow because that jet stream
tends to lean a
bit further north, but southern
Colorado I think this is safe to say.
The San Juans, the singer of Christmas,
we really don't like these La Nina events.
We are not that close that
average jet stream position,
so we tend to get left out of a
lot of storms and the Front Range.
We're right on the border of things,
so it tends to be very hit or miss for us.
Again, think about this past winter.
This past winter was kind of a
perfect example from the Front Range.
We had our latest.
By far our latest first
measurable snowfall on record.
We had to wait until December
the 10th of last year until we
got measurable snow in Denver.
And then it didn't stop
snowing for three months,
so it's very hit or miss for us.
Alanna Winter for the Front Range
for the Denver area. Again,
it can be a really below average season.
It can be a really above average season.
Think even back to March of 2021.
We had that huge snowstorm.
Fourth biggest snowstorm on record that took
place during a longer winter here in Denver.
So again.
Very, very hit or miss.
It's hard to say for for Denver.
For areas along I-70 those impacts
tend to vary a little bit.
Northern Colorado Steamboat Springs,
Rocky Mountain National Park,
Winter Park.
Those areas tend to do pretty
well in the long Nina winter,
while southern Colorado.
I do think it's safe to
say for the San Juans,
the singer Christos we really don't like
the look of things for a longer winter.
That said,
there are always exceptions to these rules.
This is again these are not hard fast.
Rules necessarily you know.
Again,
Alani winter can usually does lead
to a lower than average winter for
the southern parts of our state here,
but it's not always the case.
We've seen big winters in laning years.
For southern Colorado.
We've also seen bad winters in
Northern Colorado and La Nina Winters.
So just again take this with a grain of salt,
but generally speaking,
looks good for Northern Colorado.
Denver Front Range right along I-70.
Fifty 50 southern Colorado.
Doesn't look that great.
The fact that we have that
longina winter coming on up,
so hopefully that answers a
few of your questions,
but it does look very likely that
we're going to be looking at our third
straight La Nina Winter coming up here again,
about 60 to 65% odds and increasing according
to main governmental bodies across the world,
so hopefully it gives you a pretty
good overview about what to expect.
Meantime,
in terms of near term weather,
meteorologist Danielle Grant will
have updates at 4569 and 10 on the
9 news family of networks tonight,
so be sure to tune in for those.
Meteorologist Chris Bianchi have a
great rest of your weekend and thanks
for joining us here on 9 News Plus.