Hello my friend, it's time for a basketball video!
We just keep crushing the NBA player proposition bets. Yesterday I recommended my members on
Patreon to bet Isaac Okoro from the Cleveland Cavaliers to go under 3.5 rebounds. It was
a tight win as he finished with exactly three. On Saturday, I only found one more good value
wager: DeMar DeRozan from the Chicago Bulls to record under 4.5 assists. He ended the
game with three assists, so this was another win.
So far this season, the NBA player prop bets hold an impressive 30-15 record, a 67% winning
rate. On spreads and totals, I am finding fewer good bets, and we still have an 11-9
record on such plays.
Hello my friend, this is my daddy Professor MJ, wooo!!!
Some people have asked me: "Why are you betting many more prop bets instead of betting the
typical spreads and totals?" The answer is simple: the lines on prop bets are much weaker
and therefore exploitable. There is a reason why some sportsbooks will only allow you to
bet a maximum of $200 on prop bets, but they will gladly accept your $10,000 bet on spreads
and totals. They are fully aware that they are more vulnerable to sharp bettors when
it comes to proposition bets. Their lines are much less accurate. That's where you can
make money in the long run.
So far I have placed two bets on NBA player prop bets. Let me share one of them with you.
One of my NBA picks for Monday December 6th goes to Will Barton from the Denver Nuggets
to record over 4.5 rebounds in Chicago. I have seen many sportsbooks with odds that
vary between +100 and +105 in American format, which equates to being between 2.0 and 2.05
in decimal format.
According to my calculations and statistical models, Barton has a 53.5% chance of going
over. I won't go into the mathematical details, but at +105 odds you have a return on investment
of 9.7%. If the best line you can get is +100 in American format, your ROI drops to 7%,
which is still very good.
If you wish to receive all of my basketball betting picks, simply join my Patreon page
for just $2.50 per day. Unless you make very small bets, that should pay for itself if
we keep winning at such a high rate. The link to my Patreon page is right below in the video's
description. I'm Professor MJ, PhD in statistics and sportsbook killer since 1999! Have a nice
Monday my friend!