GOOD AFTERNOON.
I AM METEOROLOGIST CRAIG
SETZER.
THERE IS A LOT GOING ON AND A
LOT OF ANXIETY THAT WE ARE
FEELING HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
IF YOU WERE WITH US TWO YEARS
AGO FOR IRMA IN 2017, WE GOT TO
A POINT THAT IT FELT LIKE THE
TENSION LEVEL WAS SO HIGH THAT
I HAD TO TELL EVERYBODY TO TAKE
A BREATH AND JUST TRY TO RELAX
A LITTLE BIT.
I KNOW THE ANXIETY IS REALLY
HIGH.
EVERYBODY IS DISCUSSING THE
STORM.
THIS IS NOT COMING HERE TONIGHT
OR TOMORROW SO WE HAVE SOME
TIME.
SO EVERYBODY, JUST RELAX A
LITTLE BIT.
I AM SAYING THAT FOR MYSELF AS
WELL.
SO LET'S LOOK AT THE LATEST.
THIS IS THE 2:00 INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY.
THAT IS NOW EVERY TWO HOURS.
THIS IS JUST AN UPDATE ON THE
POSITION OF LOCATION.
A COUPLE OF THINGS I WANT TO
POINT OUT HERE FIRST IS THE
LATITUDE.
THE LATITUDE IS THAT 24.8
NUMBER.
24.8 IS THIS NUMBER RIGHT HERE.
SO THAT IS THE NUMBER THAT GOES
UP AND THAT MEANS IT IS GETTING
FURTHER AND FURTHER NORTH.
WE WANT THAT ABOVE 26.
IF IT IS A ABOVE 27 THAT WILL
BE MUCH FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND THAT IS GOOD FOR US.
ALSO, NEW BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
WITH THIS ADVISORY IS THE WIND
SPEED IS 115 MILES PER HOUR.
THAT MAKES IT A CATEGORY 3 BUT
THAT IS NOT A SURPRISE.
THE STORM IS 445 MILES EAST.
HERE IS THE FUTURETRACK.
CONTINUES THIS SLOW CURVE HERE.
IT IS CONTINUING TO THE WEST
AND THE WEST NORTHWEST.
THIS IS SATURDAY EVENING.
ALL OF THESE POINTS ARE SLOWING
DOWN JUST A BIT AS FAR AS HOW
CLOSE AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL
GET TO FLORIDA.
THIS IS THE SUNDAY MORNING
POSITION.
THIS IS THE MONDAY MORNING
POSITION HERE.
AND THEN THIS IS THE TUESDAY
MORNING POSITION.
AS I MENTIONED EARLIER, THAT IS
BECAUSE THE FORECAST POINTS
OVER LAND.
IT IS A WEAKENING OF THE STORM
AS IT GETS OVER LAND.
THERE IS A SUDDEN POINT CHANGE
UP TO THE NORTH THERE.
THIS TURN HERE IS SHOWING UP IN
ALL OF THE MODELS.
BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS, DOES
THIS TURN HAPPENED AS IT GETS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA OR AS IT
REACHES SOUTH FLORIDA OR IS
DOES THIS TURN OCCUR OUT HERE
AND THEN GO NORTH.
MANY OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE TURN WILL
BE RATHER ABRUPT.
OBVIOUSLY, A FASTER STORM GETS
TO FLORIDA SOONER.
AND THEN IT TURNS OR A SLOWER
STORM MAY NOT GET TO FLORIDA
BEFORE IT TURNS.
THOSE ARE TWO OF THE
CONSIDERATIONS WE ARE WATCHING.
BECAUSE NEW MODEL DATA IS
COMING IN I WOULD LIKE TO SHOW
IT TO YOU.
I AM NOT GOING TO HIDE
ANYTHING.
PEOPLE CALL ME AND TEXT ME AND
WANT TO KNOW WHAT I KNOW.
I SAY THAT I AM TELLING
EVERYTHING I AM TELLING MY
FRIENDS AND FAMILY AND PEOPLE
AT THE STATION.
THERE IS NO HIDING WHAT IS
GOING ON.
HERE ARE THE MODELS FOR 8 AM
TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS IS THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND
THE GFS MODEL.
THIS IS 3 PM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE.
THE MAIN THING TO NOTE HERE, I
WILL DRAW THIS FOR YOU.
THE EUROPEAN MODEL NO LONGER
HAS THAT SOUTHWEST TURN.
THIS RUN, AND IN FACT THE LAST
ONE, SHOWED MORE OF A WEST
NORTHWEST MOTION.
WE LIKE THAT BECAUSE THAT
SOUTHWEST TURN WAS A SCARY
THING TO THINK THAT IT COULD
GET HIGHER AND THEN COME BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND THEN UP AT US.
THIS IS A ONE RUN NOW.
WE WANT TO SEE THREE MORE OF
THESE BEFORE WE START TO FEEL
BETTER HERE.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WHERE IT
IS HERE AND THERE IS ABOUT 100
MILES AND THAT IS TOO CLOSE TO
CALL.
SO THIS IS 3 PM ON MONDAY GOING
INTO 4:00 AM ON TUESDAY.
THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS IT
STALLED JUST TO OUR EAST.
THE GFS MODEL IS A LITTLE BIT
MORE TO THE EAST.
TUESDAY MORNING, BOTH MODELS
BEGIN A NORTHWARD POOL.
SO THE BIG QUESTION IS, ARE YOU
GOING TO BUY THIS MODEL?
BUT THAT'S A BIG RISK IF YOU DO
BECAUSE WE HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE
OF THESE.
OR WILL YOU PRINT CONTINUE TO
PREPARE?
I AM NOT BETTING MY HOUSE THAT
THIS MODEL IS BETTER THAN THIS
MODEL HERE.
SO, DON'T BUY INTO ONE MODEL
AND ASSUME IT WILL MISS US.
WE JUST DON'T KNOW THAT YET.
IT TAKES A WHILE TO PUT UP THE
SHUTTERS AND TOP OFF MY
SUPPLIES.
THERE MAY COME A POINT IN TIME
AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHERE WE SAY WE CAN PAUSE
PREPARATIONS BUT THIS IS NOT
THE TIME FOR THAT.
THIS IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT
THIS POINT.
AND IF YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT A
COMPACT CATEGORY FOR, YOU
EITHER HAVE WINDY CONDITIONS
AND RAIN OR YOU HAVE A
HURRICANE AND A BAD ONE.
IT IS JUST TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT
THIS POINT.
MY MESSAGE TO EVERYBODY AT THE
STATION AND MY FRIENDS IS THAT
WE CONTINUE TO PREPARE UNTIL WE
SEE A MORE CONFIDENT RESOLUTION
THAT THIS IS NOT COMING HERE TO
SOUTH FLORIDA.
I TALKED TO A FRIEND THIS
MORNING AND HE SAID HE DID NOT
THINK IT WAS GOING TO HIT BUT
HE STILL GOT GASOLINE AND WATER
AND PREPARE THE HOME.
YOU NEED TO PREPARE AS IF IT IS
COMING HERE.
WE WILL KEEP YOU UP-TO-DATE AND
GIVE YOU THE LATEST AT NEWS
CONFERENCES.