>> VLADIMIR PUTIN IS 71 YEARS
OLD.
HE HAS RULED RUSSIA FOR ABOUT
1/3 OF HIS LIFE.
HE WAS PRESIDENT OPPOSITE BILL
CLINTON, GEORGE W. BUSH, BARACK
OBAMA, DONALD TRUMP, JOE BIDEN,
AND NOW HE WANTS ANOTHER TERM.
THE WAY PUTIN HAS GAMED THE
SYSTEM, HE COULD RUN AND WIN
NEXT YEAR AND THEN DO IT ALL
AGAIN IN 2030 WHICH COULD MEAN
HE WOULD BE PRESIDENT INTO HIS
80s.
HE COULD END UP SERVING LONGER
THAN JOSEPH STALIN DID THROUGH
THE SECOND WAR.
AND HE WILL WIN RE-ELECTION NEXT
MARCH, BUT WHAT COULD HE LOSE IN
THIS PROCESS?
>> AN IT WOULD BE A MISTAKE FOR
PEOPLE IN THE WEST TO BELIEVE
THIS ELECTION IS WITHOUT
MEANING.
TO UNDERSTAND PUTIN, YOU HAVE TO
UNDERSTAND WHAT GIVES HIM POWER.
>> PUTIN HITS ON TOP OF A
HIERARCHY STRUCTURE.
HE IS IN CONTROL.
AND HE IS AN AUTOCRAT, BUT HE'S
NOT AN ABSOLUTE AUTOCRAT.
>> WHEN HE SPEAKS, PEOPLE
LISTEN, BUT THE LEADERSHIP
HINGES ON HIS ABILITY TO CONTROL
THE CHAOS WHO TRICKLES THROUGH
THE OFFICIAL APPARATUS THAT
EVERYDAY RUSSIANS SEE, HEAR, AND
ABSORB.
>> ON THE INTELLIGENCE SIDE,
PUTIN HIMSELF IS FORMER K.G.B.,
LOYALTY FROM INTELLIGENCE,
DOMESTIC INTELLIGENCE AND
FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE ARE
CRITICAL FOR MAINTAINING
CONTROL.
PERHAPS THE GREATEST DIRECT
THREAT IS HIS OWN MILITARY.
WE HAVE SEEN HIS FORCES REBEL
SINCE THE WAR IN UKRAINE
STARTED.
MANY EXPERTS BELIEVE PUTIN WILL
CONTINUE TO RULE THE COUNTRY
UNTIL EITHER HE DIES OR THERE IS
A COUP.
BUT THERE WILL ALSO LITERALLY
HAVE THOUSANDS OF OTHER POWERFUL
PEOPLE WITHIN THE COUNTRY, THE
CLASS OF ELITES.
PEOPLE WITH REAL MONEY AND REAL
AGENCY.
ALL OF THIS A COMPLEX AND
INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM THAT IS
OFTEN IN A BITTER STRUGGLE WITH
ITSELF FOR PROPERTY AND POWER.
PUTIN'S SURVIVAL IS BASED ON
KEEPING IT ALL FROM SPINNING OUT
OF CONTROL.
>> HE DOESN'T JUST GET UP IN THE
MORNING AND SAY I THINK I WILL
DO THIS AND MAGICALLY IT
HAPPENS.
IT DOESN'T.
HE HAS TO WORK THIS THROUGH
THROUGH FACTIONS AND SOMETIMES
HE MAKES DEALS AND COMPRISES.
AT THE END OF THE DAY, HE IS IN
CHARGE, BUT HE IS NOT ABSOLUTE.
>> PUTIN'S STRENGTH IS CLEAR
WHEN YOU SEE HOW EFFECTIVELY HE
HAS APPOINTED TRUE LOYALISTS TO
THE MOST POWERFUL POSITIONS
AROUND HIM.
AND LET ME SHOW YOU SOMETHING.
SO THIS IS THE RUSSIAN DAILY
NEWSPAPER.
EVERY YEAR IT PUBLISHES A
RANKING OF THE MOST POLITICALLY
INFLUENTIAL RUSSIANS.
ANY GUESSES WHO TAKES THE TOP
SPOT?
THAT SAYS PUTIN, VLADIMIR.
THE LAST BIT IS HIS MIDDLE NAME.
AND PEOPLE WHO SERVED SINCE HE
WAS ELECTED IN THE YEAR 2000,
HOW MANY ARE CONSIDERED TO BE
ENORMOUSLY INFLUENTIAL SOME 20
YEARS LATER.
AND CHECKING ON THE STAFF AND
THE CORE MEMBER OF PUTIN'S INNER
CIRCLE THROUGHOUT HIS TIME IN
POWER.
ACCORDING TO THE "WASHINGTON
POST" ON THE DAY OF THE UKRAINE
INVASION, HE CALLED THE
ADMINISTRATION DIRECTLY TELLING
THEM TO SURRENDER.
AND VERY NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LIST, PUTIN'S NUMBER TWO.
SERVED AS PUTIN'S PLACE HOLDER
PRESIDENT WHILE PUTIN WAS
REWORKING THE CONSTITUTION TO
STAY IN POWER.
MEDEVEV WAS PUTIN'S CAMPAIGN
MANAGER AND IS THE COUNTRY'S
PRIME MINISTER.
ACCORDING TO THE ALL BUT ONE
WERE STILL ON THE LIST 20 YEARS
LATER.
IN ALL THAT TIME, ONLY 60 PEOPLE
HAVE EVER RANKED 20th OR HIGHER,
AND 18 HAVE APPEARED ON EVERY
SINGLE LIST BETWEEN 2000 AND
2009.
DEPENDING ON WHO YOU ASK, THE
REGIME IS REMARKABLY STABLE OR
IN A STATE OF POLITICAL
PARALYSIS.
>> LOYALTY.
HE HAS PEOPLE WHOM HE TRUSTS TO
HAVE HIS INTEREST AT HEART.
THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE AND
THE ABILITY TO RUN OR MANAGE
SOMETHING RESPECTIVELY.
THE WAR IN UKRAINE HAS NOT GONE
WELL FOR PUTIN.
IT IS BOTH THE THING HE HOPED
WOULD STRENGTHEN HIS HOLD ON
RUSSIA AND NOW THE THING THAT WE
CAN SEND.
>> UKRAINIAN FORCES ARE
INFLICTING VERY HEAVY CASUALTY
ON RUSSIA.
>> RUSSIAN FORCES BY MID TO LATE
MARCH ACHIEVED THE MAXIMUM
EXTENT OF UKRAINE TO THIS DAY.
>> THIS IS THE RUSSIAN DEFENCE
MINISTRY AND THE U.K. MINISTRY
OF DEFENCE ESTIMATES 300,000
RUSSIAN SOLDIERS HAVE DIED IN
THIS WAR.
AND THAT IS A LOT OF PEOPLE IN A
WAR THAT HAS STRETCHED ON FOR
TWO YEARS THAT PUTIN THOUGHT
COULD BE WON DECISIVELY IN DAYS
THAT LED TO ONE OF THE MORE
BIZARRE AND SPECTACULAR DIRECT
CHALLENGES TO PUTIN'S AUTHORITY
WE HAVE EVER SEEN.
AND THIS PAST SUMMER WHEN THE
HEAD OF THE GROUP LED AN ARMED
REBELLION MARCH ON MOSCOW, THE
WORLD BRIEFLY WONDERED IF PUTIN
COULD SURVIVE SUCH A CHALLENGE.
>> THIS IS HOW THE DAY BEGAN IN
THE RUSSIAN CITY --
AND 24 HOURS LATER A KIND OF
PEACE WAS BROKERED BUT THE
DAMAGE TO PUTIN'S REPUTATION WAS
CLEAR.
>> HIS WEAKNESS HAS BEEN
EXPOSED.
HE IS GOING TO HAVE TO RE-ASSERT
HIMSELF IN A WAY THAT
DEMONSTRATES TO THE WORLD AND TO
HIS COUNTRY THAT HE IS FULLY IN
POWER.
>> TWO MONTHS LATER, HE DIES IN
A PLANE CRASH.
PUTIN ALSO DISMISSED OTHER
SENIOR MILITARY LEADERS WHOSE
LOYALTY HE QUESTIONED, INCLUDING
CLOSE ALLIES WHO DEMANDED
RUSSIAN FORCES IN UKRAINE.
THEN UKRAINE BEGAN BRINGING THE
WAR TO RUSSIA.
>> SUICIDE DRONES HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO STRIKE RUSSIA FROM HUNDREDS
OF KILOMETRES AWAY AND TARGETED
A MAJOR RUSSIAN PORT AND
NUMEROUS ATTACKS ACROSS THE CITY
AND INCLUDING MOSCOW AND THE
KREMLIN ITSELF WAS TARGETED.
FROM A UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE
SPOKESPERSON, THERE IS ALWAYS
SOMETHING FLYING IN RUSSIA WELLS
IN MOSCOW.
AND NOW THE WAR IS AFFECTING
THOSE WHO WERE NOT CONCERNED.
UKRAINE BELIEVES POPULAR RUSSIAN
IS KEY TO BRINGING THE WAR TO AN
END.
AND THE COMING ELECTION MAY BE
TIME SINCE THE COLD WAR THE
AFFECT IN HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND
TO PAY FOR THE FACT THAT DEFENCE
IS THREE TIMES BIGGER THAN IT
WAS BEFORE THE MILITARY
OPERATION BEGAN AND IS BEING
TURNED INTO A WAR ECONOMY.
I WILL SAY WHAT I SAID AT THE
START THAT PUTIN WILL NOT LOSE
NEXT YEAR'S ELECTION.
ABOUT 80% OF RUSSIANS APPROVE OF
HIS PERFORMANCE ACCORDING TO THE
INDEPENDENT POLLSTER NEVADA
CENTRE.
PLUS, THE ELECTION ITSELF IS
TIGHTLY MANAGED.
>> AND CONTROL THIS FOR THE
ELECTION AND ABOUT THE SYSTEM OF
ELECTION COMMISSION AND THE
ORIGINAL AND ORIGINAL LEVEL AND
THE PARTICULAR THOUGHT IS THE
MASS MEDIA AND HE CONTROLS
EVERYTHING AND ALL THE REGIME.
THE MOST SERIOUS CHALLENGES AND
THE VETERAN RUSSIAN POLITICIAN
LONGTIME PUTIN LAY ON THE
GROUND.
FOUR BULLETS --
>> OR THEY LIVE IN EXILE.
>> AND THE RICHEST OLIGARCH AND
UNTIL PUTIN EXILED HIM.
>> AND BROUGHT WITHIN AN INCH OF
HIS LIFE AND THEN THROWN IN
JAIL.
THE POISON THAT LEFT HIM
SCREAMING IN AGONY IN THE FLIGHT
OVER SIBERIA WAS A NERVE AGENT.
>> THE RUSSIAN OPPOSITION LEADER
HAS BEEN FOUND GUILTY AND
SENTENCED TO 19 YEARS IN PRISON
AND THE LATEST TRIAL ON
EXTREMIST CHARGES.
THE MEDIA COMPLETELY UNDER
GOVERNMENT CONTROL.
THE CBC AND MANY OTHER
INTERNATIONAL MEDIA OUTLETS WERE
FORCED TO CLOSE THE BUREAUS
AFTER THE START OF THE WAR AND
RUSSIAN STATE TV DOMINATES THE
CONVERSATION.
>> TO SHOW YOU HOW SWIFTLY
PUTIN'S REAL CRITICS ARE
SILENCED, WHEN THEY RECENTLY
BOUGHT A BILLBOARD AD THAT
SIMPLY SAID RUSSIA IN BIG
LETTERS.
AND RUSSIAN FOR HAPPY NEW YEAR
BELOW IT, THE QR CODE CARRIED A
SECRET MESSAGE.
IT DIRECTED PEOPLE TO THE NOT
PUTIN PROTEST WEBSITE.
WHEN THE GOVERNMENT REALIZED
WHAT IT WAS, IT NOT ONLY TOOK
THE BILLBOARD DOWN, IT BANNED
ALL QR CODES ON ALL BILLBOARDS.
THERE IS A PERPETUAL
UNDERCURRENT OF DISSENT THAT
MOSCOW MUST CONTINUOUSLY TAMP
DOWN.
>> PUTIN CAN CONTROL NO MORE
THAN 1/3 OF THE VOTES.
AND IT IS SOMETHING BETWEEN MY
ESTIMATION AND NO MORE.
ON THAT POINT VOTING WILL ALSO
HAPPEN NEXT YEAR IN WHAT RUSSIA
CALLS THE NEW TERRITORIES.
PARTS OF OCCUPIED UKRAINE THAT
RUSSIA NOW CONTROLS.
ACCORDING TO RUSSIA'S CENTRAL
ELECTION COMMISSION, THERE WILL
BE VOTING IN FOUR REGIONS.
AND PUT YOURSELVES IN THE SHOES
OF THE PEOPLE WHO LIVE THERE,
SURROUNDED BY WAR.
RUSSIAN OCCUPIERS AND AN
EXTENSION OF PUTIN HIMSELF AND
THEY TELL YOU IT'S ELECTION AND
WHICH WAY WOULD YOU VOTE?
AND WHATEVER RESULTS OF THAT
WILL BE NULL AND VOID, BUT
RUSSIA DOESN'T SEE IT THAT WAY.
>> KNOW THAT PUTIN WILL WIN THE
ELECTION AND THE QUESTION IS HOW
THE ELECTION IS WON.
WHAT DOES THAT LEAVE US?
>> AGAIN, THE OUTCOME OF THE
ELECTION IS NOT IN QUESTION, BUT
THE EXACT RESULT IS.
>> IN THE EYES OF THOSE PEOPLE,
AND FOR YOURSELF DOWN TO 6%.
AND NOW YOU MAY HAVE FIXED IT.
WHAT IS WRONG?
YOU ARE GETTING WEAKER.
>> THEY DON'T MEET THE TARGETS.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE
COMPETITION AMONG THE KREMLIN
FACTIONS AND POWER AND WILL TEND
TO DISCREDIT PUTIN AND LESSEN
HIS ABILITY TO BE AN EFFECTIVE
MANAGER.
>> WHATEVER PUTIN'S OFFICIAL
TARGET END UP BEING, EXCEEDING
AND FALLING SHORT IS HIGHLY
SYMBOLIC AND SHOWS HOW WELL
PUTIN AND IS OTHERWISE
MEANINGLESS AND THAT PUTIN IS
STILL IN CHARGE AND CONSIDER
THIS ASSESSMENT THAT EVEN FRAUD
WILL NOT ERODE PUTIN'S PRESTIGE.
TO THE CONTRARY, IT IS ANOTHER
SIGN OF POLITICAL DOMINANCE.
TRANSLATION, EVEN THE ABILITY TO
CHEAT SAYS SOMETHING ABOUT HIS