A wider war that nobody wants.
The United States has not been involved
in any offensive operations.
What we're focused on,
what the G-7 is focused on
and again, it's
reflected in our statement
and in our conversation is our work
to de-escalate tensions.
After being warned by its allies
to avoid further escalation, the U.S.
says Israel carried out a strike inside
Iran on Friday.
Iran downplayed
the impact of what appears
to be a fairly limited strike
after its air defenses
intercepted three drones
with no reports of a missile attack.
An Iranian official told Reuters
there was no plan to respond
at this point.
All this came
less than a week after
Iran launched
an unprecedented attack on Israel
in response
to a strike on its embassy
compound in Syria.
Former Israeli General Tamir Homan,
who once was head of intelligence
for the IDF, told me
Israel had miscalculated
on both Hamas and Iran.
I think the intelligence,
the IDF intelligence was wrong
in the seven of October
for not detecting the Hamas intention.
Then it was wrong of
of of
of assuming
what will be the Iranian response.
Those are two mistakes,
no doubt about it.
With Israel
and Iran's decades
long shadow war now
playing out in the open,
the rules of the game in the Middle
East are being rewritten.
I spoke with Britain's former
top spy about the situation
just before Friday's strike.
Sir John Sirs,
welcome back to our program.
Thank you very much, Christiane.
So what do you think of the end
of this very,
very tense week,
Josep Borrell,
as all the leaders are meeting, you know,
to try to figure out in Europe
and what's happening
has said that
we are on the edge of a cliff.
Do you agree?
I think I may be slightly overstating it.
It's a very tense time at the moment
after the
Israeli strike in Damascus
and the very heavy Iranian response.
We need to bear in mind
that Iranian response was a failure.
There will be disappointed in Tehran.
That's a tiny fraction
only of their barrage of missiles
and drones.
Only a very few got through.
It didn't really cause any damage at all
to Israel.
And I think
Prime Minister
Netanyahu is feeling
pretty comfortable at the moment.
Just two or three weeks ago,
we were all talking about the disasters
in Gaza, the failure of the
of the of the relative failure
of the Israeli offensive there
and the bombing
of the humanitarian convoy.
He changed the subject.
So what do you think
is a manageable next step
if there is such a thing?
First of all,
we need to recognize that
this shadow war
between Israel and Iran has been going on
for a good number of years now.
The latest
round of this
was the Israeli strike in Damascus,
which took a lot of people by surprise,
including the United States
administration. I think
it shocked the Iranians
as well, because it was a
it was a sort of escalation
to attack
a designated diplomatic building,
even though it was being used
as a headquarters
of the Revolutionary Guards.
I think Israel made a strategic
misjudgments.
They thought they could live alongside
a Hamas controlled Gaza.
Seven October demonstrated they could not
or they are living alongside
a Hezbollah controlled Lebanon.
They're living alongside
of an Iranian controlled Syria,
but a Syria in which Iran has
as a substantial a foothold.
Now, I don't think the Israeli security
chiefs, the people I used to work
with, the Mossad and Shin Bass
and so on,
will be
ready to tolerate this indefinitely.
And they'll say, If not now, then when?
But I think the politics
point to a gradual step forward
rather than a major escalation.
And I just want to
your security interlocutors,
over the years,
many of them have publicly said
that actually Israel's
most existential threat is the continued
lack of a political resolution
that would bring security
between Israel and the Palestinians.
Do you think now, as you
look at this morass
that they're in, in Gaza,
that that option is still on the table
for Israel?
Well,
there has to be an option
for a political solution.
There was a sort of common ground
between Prime Minister
Netanyahu and Hamas
in that
neither wanted a two state solution.
They both wanted a one state solution.
But Hamas wanted a one state solution
with no Israel.
And Israel wanted a one state solution
with no Palestinians.
And I think either, course,
is a recipe for really serious problems.
So we got to get back to the concept
of a two state solution.
I think it is conceivable
it is possible to get there.
So that has to be addressed.
But Israel does have to also address
its direct security,
its security demands.
You say that this general is
saying
you have to finish the job in Gaza.
I'm not so sure about that, actually.
I think Israel succeeded in reducing Gaza
to rubble. Is that a success?
Well, exactly.
That's not exactly a success.
They haven't
secured the release of the remaining
hostages are still alive.
They haven't killed the Hamas commanders.
They've caused enormous amounts
of humanitarian suffering.
Frankly, I think from the Israeli
point of view,
they can change the subject.
They can switch to Iran and Hezbollah
and just call it a day in.
Really. In Gaza.
I think that is conceivable.
But the alternative, Christiane, is
if the Israelis do go back into
in a big way
into Rafah
to take on the last of the
Hamas battalions.
Yes, there's a security logic to it,
but will they actually achieve
any more than they achieved already?
I'm very skeptical.
I think Hamas
will be able to reconstitute
its military forces.
There'll be plenty of volunteers
for Hamas battalions
emerging out of this as of this conflict.
And the only real answer to both Gaza
and the West Bank
is to have a
an authority
to give
Palestinian leadership,
which takes responsibility
for those territories
in the concept of
of a context of working
towards a Palestinian state
which lives alongside
a secure and peaceful Israel.
Now, onto the other major,
maybe unloved war right now on Ukraine.
Our Ukraine, our sky
and the sky of our neighbors
deserve the same security.
And I thank everyone who also perceives
our need for security
as a need for equal security for all,
because all lives are equally valuable.
And he made the obvious point that,
of course,
they're not nature, but noise, noise.
Israel. NAITO So this stuff can be done.
Now, I don't know your your view on that,
but your view on the Americans
who as we speak,
are getting ready to bring this aid
bill finally to the floor of Congress.
The Ukrainian armed forces
have done a remarkable job
holding the Russians at bay,
initially pushing them back.
But the logic of a war
between a major country
with 140 million people,
a big industrial base
against a medium sized country,
that's beginning to tell.
And what has kept
Ukraine going has been
the international support
is been above
all financial support from the Europeans.
And even more critically,
military support
mainly from the United States
and sadly, the delay in approving
further military support,
a budget for for support for Ukraine
has enabled Russia
to get on the front foot in in Ukraine.
It's meant
the Ukrainian forces
have been
much more cautious
about using what limited material
they have at the moment.
I think the
I hope the vote in in
the House will be successful,
that the money will be approved.
I think it'll be give
a very big boost to to Zelensky
and to the whole of a of America's
ally allies around Europe.
And it will be a big setback
for President Putin.
You can hear some of the MAGA
Republicans literally spouting
Russian propaganda Nazis.
This I mean, it's really like word
for word,
Putin's playbook
and his disinformation machine.
There's frequent pictures all over.
Anybody can find them of Nazis.
Here they are.
I mean,
these people are literally speaking
from Putin's playbook.
And, you know,
the issues around Trump
and his affinity for for Putin.
So I want to ask you finally, J.D.
Vance, who's a senator,
a very close Trump
ally, is essentially now writing it's
going to have to give up
its territory to Russia,
and we're just going
to have to move forward.
That plus Ukraine.
Russia doesn't matter as much to us
as Israel.
Well,
first of all,
I think it's a serious misjudgment
to say that Russia doesn't matter.
Russia is the biggest single threat
to European security
and to North Atlantic security.
I know China's a big strategic threat
and it is the most important competition
for the next for the rest of the century.
But if you're looking at the next decade
or two,
the real security
threat comes from Russia.
So it's flat
wrong to think in
terms of Russia not being a threat.
You have to recognize that Russia is is
led by a very autocratic,
all powerful figure
who has got into his head that somehow
Ukraine is should be part of Russia.
He's undermined
all the principles
of the United Nations charter
and is
quite clearly seen to be doing that.
So we've got to defend ourselves
against him
and the vote in the
in the House of Representatives
to renew support for
Ukraine is going to be really important
in this.
Sir John for us,
thank you very much indeed.
Thank you, Christiane.