As the CCP becomes more aggressive
The US is making a contingency plan
For how to evacuate Americans from Taiwan.
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The Chinese Communist Party is readying itself for war.
I… realize there’s never been a time that sentence wasn’t true.
That’s like saying, “Cookie Monster is readying himself for cookies.”
Not exactly breaking news.
What makes this relevant is in two recent speeches, Xi Jinping said,
China must prepare for extreme scenarios, including conflict with the West.
And the most likely spot for war is Taiwan.
Taiwan is an existential threat to the Chinese Communist Party.
A thriving democracy of 24 million people, it is a damning condemnation of the Communist
Party’s claims that Chinese people aren’t ready for democracy.
It’s kind of like how the other members of N’Sync thought Justin Timberlake wasn’t
ready for a single’s career.
Well, just look at them now.
China can’t stand to see Taiwan thriving after they told them bye, bye, bye.
And so Xi Jinping has said Communist China will take Taiwan, by force if necessary.
According to CIA Director William Burns , Xi has ordered the military to be ready for invasion
by 2027.
That’s a date that’s been backed up by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken,
And Taiwan’s own foreign minister.
Taiwan *brought* sexy back, and now China wants to *take* sexy back… back.
If China invades, that could spell trouble
For the 80,000 Americans living in Taiwan that would be caught in the crosshairs.
Which has to be scary.
As an American, the only Asian invasion we’ve ever had to deal with is K-Pop.
And personally, I welcomed our BTS overlords.
This is why the US is preparing evacuation plans to get them out.
The Americans, not BTS.
I’ll tell you more after this quick commercial break.
Welcome back.
According to an exclusive in the Messenger, the US is preparing evacuation plans for US
citizens in Taiwan.
Three anonymous sources, including one US intelligence official, said “The planning
has been underway for at least six months and ‘it’s heated up over the past two
months or so.’”
It was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that made the US government take an invasion threat
more seriously.
In response to the report, a Pentagon spokesperson declined to comment directly on the planning
but said “We do not see a conflict in the Taiwan Strait as imminent or inevitable.”
Which is definitely not a denial.
I mean it makes sense to plan ahead for something like this.
Waiting until an invasion starts to figure out how to get Americans out is a little too
late.
Not that the US has a great recent history of evacuating American citizens from war zones.
Just look at Afghanistan.
Or more recently Sudan.
And maybe worst of all, Fyre Fest.
That’s because it isn’t actually US policy to get American citizens out of warzones.
White House Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the National Security Council John Kirby
was asked about the Taiwan evacuation plan and said
“it was not routine U.S. policy to evacuate private American citizens from areas of conflict.”
And he denied a review of that policy for Taiwan was needed.
That’s because America has a culture of self sufficiency.
Pull yourself up by your own boot straps and out of a war zone.
Don’t depend on the government for everything.
As a matter of fact, why don’t you just defeat the Chinese army yourself.
That’s the *American* thing to do!
Under US policy, it's the embassies that are responsible for making emergency plans for
staff and American citizens, though evacuations are handled in conjunction with the Department
of Defense.
But there may be a reason the White House is trying to keep this quiet.
One former State Department official said, “Even talking about an [evacuation plan]
starts people thinking something may be going on even if it is just prudent planning.”
Because again, after China invades would be a bad time to realize you need a plan.
It’s kind of like trying to take out a life insurance policy after you’ve already been
murdered.
By the Chinese army.
According to a senior advisor for the Center for Strategic and International Studies , “The
fact that the U.S. is doing this doesn't mean that they expect there will be a war.
It’s only a statement that there could be a war.”
And he should know . He runs Taiwan war games for the think tank and was involved in the
1975 evacuation of Americans from Saigon.
Although that was also botched.
But it’s not just the US that is making evacuation plans in case of a Chinese invasion.
Indonesia has been making plans.
It makes up the largest foreign population in Taiwan, about 300,000 people.
The Philippines has been drawing up plans for its 150,000 citizens, too.
Last year, Japan started making plans, as well.
Yeah…
I’m starting to think everyone assumes there’s gonna be a war.
They’re not all doing this just because there *could* be a war.
I mean, it *could* start raining hot fudge, but I don’t see everyone stocking up on
ice cream umbrellas.
But if China invades Taiwan, it will be a nightmare for any country trying to evacuate
people.
I’ll tell you why after this final commercial break.
Welcome back.
Getting American citizens evacuated from Taiwan during a Chinese invasion will be a logistical
nightmare.
As one expert told the Messenger, “Imagine a D-Day invasion and then a third country
– Switzerland or something like that – wants to send a cruise ship through the U.S. fleet
to Normandy to pick up its citizens.”
Yeah, that sounds bad.
That almost sounds as hazardous to your health as literally every Carnival cruise.
First, there’s the problem of even knowing where the American citizens are.
John McLaughlin, a former acting director of the CIA , told the Messenger that “One
thing they might do, I would do, is I would be finding a way to tell Americans [in Taiwan]
to register in this database.”
And it does look like that’s what the US has been doing.
You know the CCP is bad when people are told to register for a database where US officials
can keep an eye on them, and they’re all like, “Yes, sir!
Gimme a slice of that delicious Patriot Act pie.”
In February, The American Institute of Taiwan, the de facto US embassy in Taiwan ,
Posted this notice
reminding US citizens in a “region prone to disasters”
To enroll in a registry and have go-bags ready.
Now, officially, this notice was put out in response to a major earthquake in Turkey and
Syria.
But, you know, just in case there’s some other kind of disaster in Taiwan, the US government
says US citizens should register and be prepared to evacuate.
But that of course leads to the next big logistical nightmare—how do you actually get them out?
I guess you could put them all on a Carnival Cruise, but their buffets are debatably just
as big a danger.
Most of Taiwan’s main airports are on the side of the island facing China.
And will likely be taken out by missile strikes, as you can see in this simulation by Chinese
state-run media.
Recently we did an episode about how difficult it will be for China to invade Taiwan because
of its terrain.
Unfortunately, all the things that make it very difficult for a Chinese invasion also
make it very difficult to get American citizens out of Taiwan in an invasion.
Because of Taiwan’s mountainous terrain, there’s usually only one main route between
any two points.
Tunnels and major roads would become chokepoints for the hundreds of thousands of refugees
fleeing combat,
if Chinese troops weren’t using them for transportation themselves.
It would be like LA traffic but somehow 1000 times worse.
Wow… war really is hell.
Taiwan might also sabotage those roads to keep Chinese troops from advancing.
Which is why the best thing would be to prevent a Chinese invasion from happening in the first
place.
A war in Taiwan is not inevitable.
But avoiding it requires the US to show a strong hand.
When Biden became president, he vowed a new era of relentless diplomacy.
Unfortunately while that sounds good, that actually put the US on weak footing.
And Biden more than anybody needs to be careful about keeping his footing.
Since the Chinese Communist Party knows the Biden Administration wants talks and diplomacy
They’ve been ghosting the US.
Cutting off access.
That puts the Biden Administration on the back foot.
In order to make diplomacy happen, the US needs to make concessions to the CCP.
Meanwhile, Taiwan has been frustrated by slow deliveries of US weapons.
And despite the Chinese military constantly harassing Taiwan with military maneuvers near
its airspace,
I have yet to hear of a single Chinese military leader being sanctioned.
Diplomacy doesn’t work unless there are consequences.
America has a strong hand and it needs to be used.
Otherwise, there’s going to need to be an evacuation of Taiwan.
And remember, American evacuations don’t tend to go so well.
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As a thank you, I’ll answer your questions on the show.
Today’s question comes from Ian Pendleton.
“Since the Lithuanian government is no longer friendly with the CCP, how long do you think
it'll be before they recognize the ROC on Taiwan as the legitimate government of China?”
Excellent question Ian.
So last year, Lithuania really angered the Chinese Communist Party by expanding its ties
to Taiwan.
Lithuania and Taiwan announced they would open diplomatic facilities in each other’s
countries, aka unofficial embassies.
Taiwan’s will be called the “Taiwanese Representative Office in Lithuania.”
Oh no, they said Taiwanese!
The Chinese Communist Party hates that.
In fact, if you say Taiwan three times in a mirror,
Xi Jinping will pop up behind you like Candyman.
So China recalled their ambassador to Lithuania.
And they stopped trade with Lithuania.
Except the rest of the world rallied behind Lithuania.
Lithuania was smart because China made up only 1% of Lithuania's exports.
They weren’t dependent on an authoritarian regime that uses rape as a form of torture.
I call that being smart.
Lithuania's exports hit a 10 year high.
The 1 billion credit line offered by Taiwan definitely helped.
And when China banned Lithuanian rum, Taiwan stepped in and bought over 20,000 bottles.
They also started buying Lithuanian beer and chocolate.
Sounds like people are having a good time in Taiwan.
Taiwan is also vowing to invest 200 million dollars in Lithuania.
Supporting Taiwan pays.
And the great thing was the US supported Lithuania.
In a meeting with German officials, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called out China’s
bullying of Lithuania.
But Lithuania hasn’t gone so far as to officially recognize Taiwan as a country.
No country has ever done that after switching diplomatic relations to China.
And I don’t think any country will until the US does it first.
It is possible, however, that the Taiwanese side doesn’t want the US to do that now—that
could actually spark a Chinese invasion.
Especially if they say Taiwan is a country three times while looking in a mirror.
But clearly when the world shows solidarity against the Chinese Communist Party, there’s
not a whole lot the CCP can do.
Thanks for your question and your long time support, Ian.
And thank you for watching.
Once again if you want me to answer your question on the show, head on over to patreon.com/chinauncensored.
I’m Chris Chappell.
See you next time.