In 1954,
then Soviet leader Nikita
Khrushchev decided that Crimea,
a peninsula
in the Black Sea,
should be part of the Ukrainian
Socialist Republic
instead of the Russian one.
And so it was transferred,
and so it stayed Ukrainian terri
Even after the breakup
of the Soviet Union.
But in 2014
Russia took it back with force.
Today, many have suggested that
Russia will never let it go.
And Ukraine can never get it bac
My next guest begs to differ.
Retired General Ben Hodges,
the former commanding general of
Army Europe,
wrote about his view
in a recent piece in The Economi
He joins me now.
Welcome, General Hodges.
Let me first
ask you,
what do you make of
the state of play right now,
given that we've been hearing
all this talk about the Germans
tanks, the Americans giving Abra
What is happening on the ground
Well, it's
important that the United States
and Germany and U.K.
and others are finally deliverin
this sort of capable clarity
that would give Ukraine overwhel
combat power for an armored thru
That would be an important part
of the next counteroffensive.
My only regret is that it's take
and it's still going to be month
before the American contribution
The Abrams tank specifically
can be part of this.
Is there a big Russian advance
being planned
from what you can tell on the gr
It does seem like
there's a bit of a stalemate rig
What's going on as you see it?
I would not call it a stalemate
because a stalemate implies
that both sides are doing
everything they can.
And and you just can't move eith
I would say actually right now
we are in this phase of the war
where both sides are preparing
for the next mobile phase of the
The Russians of course, have tal
about the next round of mobiliza
You hear even the Ukrainians tal
there might be 500,000
Russian soldiers
that are being mobilized.
I'm very skeptical about those n
And, of course,
the Russians want us to be worri
and thinking about a looming off
so that we're
so that we're focused on that
rather than focused on the main
which is helping Ukraine liberat
So tell us why you think just
strategically
this is the right thing to do.
Because, you know,
a lot of people say, look,
this was Russian until Khrushche
gave it in 1954
that this is
this would be Putin's red line,
that this would be
the one thing it is 95% Russian
This is the one area
that Ukraine should not go into
on the contrary
say very much
it is the place that Ukraine sho
stage an invasion.
So it's
important to remember,
of course, that everybody,
including the United States, rec
that Crimea is sovereign
territory of Ukraine.
So there's no disputing
the sovereignty of
of Crimea as part of Ukraine.
I can't
imagine a situation
where it would be a good idea
for Ukraine to go ahead
and give up Crimea.
Crimea is the decisive part of t
Ukraine will never be stable
or safe or secure
as long as Russian forces
still occupy Crimea.
And they'll never be able
to rebuild their economy
as long as the Russian fleet
is there sailing out of Sevastop
interdicting traffic
coming in and out of Odessa.
So in terms of what's decisive,
how can we
how can we press Ukraine to go a
and give up Crimea?
Okay.
So now explain to us
why it's doable militarily.
I mean, Russia is a much bigger
This is a matter of pride for th
The much bigger economy, defense
And yet you say this is doable.
So I'm not so sure
that it's a matter of pride
for all Russians.
You'll remember,
500,000 Russians
left the country last year
rather than be mobilized.
I'm sure they like going down
to Crimea, to the Black Sea
for their holiday, as we saw las
But there are no Russian
soldiers that want to be in Ukra
War is a test of will
and the test of logistics.
The Russian logistics system
is barely able
to supply
the Russian troops
that it has in the field right n
The Russian Black Sea Fleet
is terrified of going anywhere n
the Ukrainian coast.
And Ukraine doesn't even have a
So I think
when you start comparing populat
and logistical systems,
Ukraine does not have a manpower
They've got
over 700,000 people in uniform.
And another 2 million
that are ready to step forward
and, of course, will power.
It's very clear
that Ukrainians have the superio
will the soldiers
as well as the people what Russi
And I think this is
what you're alluding to.
What Russia has, of course, is m
They they don't care how many ge
We see that
they're losing between
six and 800 people a day killed.
They'll keep pushing those troop
into the meat grinder
in hopes of eventually
overwhelming Ukrainian defenders
But as the SEC here says,
General Cavalier is supreme
allied commander.
You're a precision
can defeat mass if you have enou
How likely is it
do you think the Ukrainians
are going to take your advice?
Well,
one thing I'm sure of is that th
absolutely going
to keep fighting to get back Cri
because they know
they will never be safe or secur
and they know they'll never be a
to rebuild their economy.
And they also know
based on the history of the last
30 years,
that Russia will never live up
to any agreement,
but the Russians
will wait for us to lose interes
as we did after the invasion of
Back in 2008.
So I think this is why Ukraine r
this year.
This needs to happen now.
And it's
got to be very frustrating for t
When they hear
the Joint Staff or the Pentagon
the administration talk about,
oh, it's going to be very hard.
I don't think they can defeat th
this year.
And then that's used as a reason
not to provide capabilities
that would help them win this ye
So kind of a self-fulfilling pro
And I think this is a manifestat
of the fact
that the administration
just cannot bring themselves
to say they want Ukraine to actu
Instead, we talk about
we want them to be successful
or we don't want them to lose.
And that's why
we stopped short of providing
what's needed.