>>> I’M GOING TO SHOW YOU A MAP.
THESE TEN STATES SET NEW
CORONAVIRUS RECORDS.
THE CONTOURS OF THE CRISIS ARE A
LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT IN EACH OF
THE STATES.
SOME SET NEW CASE RECORDS FOR A
SINGLE DAY.
SOME ARE OVERTOPPING THEIR
SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES.
BUT THE END RESULT IS THE SAME.
WHEN THE NUMBER OF SICK PEOPLE
GOES UP, SO DOES THE NUMBER OF
PEOPLE IN THE HOSPITAL, WHICH
MEANS EVENTUALLY THE HOSPITALS
STRUGGLE JUST TO KEEP UP.
THIS IS THE HEADLINE OUT OF
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
REPORTED CORONAVIRUS
HOSPITALIZATIONS SOAR TO ANOTHER
NEW HIGH.
SAME THING IN TEXAS.
THIS HEADLINE TODAY IS A
PARTICULAR GUT IS A
PARTICULAR GUT PUNCH.
OFFICIALS SAY MANY MORE PEOPLE
WILL GET SICK AND DIE IF
INCREASES IN HOSPITALIZATIONS
CONTINUE.
THE SITUATION IN ARIZONA, THAT
ONE IS PARTICULARLY DIRE RIGHT
NOW.
AT THE START OF THIS WEEK, ER
VISITS, ICU BED USAGE, ALL OF
THOSE MEASURES HIT A RECORD
HIGH.
THE NUMBER OF ARIZONA HAS SAID
NOT TO WORRY.
AND SO THE DOCTORS IN ARIZONA
ARE SOUNDING THE ALARM FOR HIM
INSTEAD.
ONE ER DOCTOR ALARMED BY THE
SURGE OF SICK PATIENTS IN HIS
HOSPITAL TELLING THE ARIZONA
REPUBLIC, QUOTE, I’M TAKEN
ABACK.
I WALKED INTO THE HOSPITAL AND I
WAS LIKE, OH, MY GOD.
HE SAYS WHAT HE WAS SEEING IS
NOT AS BAD AS THE NUMBERS ARE
SHOWING.
HE SAYS HE THINKS IT COULD
ACTUALLY BE WORSE.
JOINING US NOW IS THAT ARIZONA
ER DOCTOR.
HE’S A CLINICAL ASSISTANT
PROFESSOR AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
ARIZONA COLLEGE OF MEDICINE.
HE WORKS AT TWO DIFFERENT
ARIZONA HOSPITALS.
DOCTOR, THANK YOU FOR JOINING
US.
PLEASE TELL US WHAT YOU HAVE
BEEN SEEING IN THE ERs IN
ARIZONA AND WHAT HAS YOU SO
CONCERNED ABOUT THE COURSE OF
THE OUTBREAK IN THAT STATE RIGHT
NOW.
>> ALI, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR
HAVING ME.
BASICALLY, WHAT I HAVE BEEN
SEEING IN THE ER IS SORT OF LIKE
YOU WOULD HAVE EXPECTED BASED ON
THE DATA, EXCEPT TO ME IT LOOKED
EVEN WORSE.
I KNEW GOING INTO MY SHIFT JUST
A COUPLE DAYS AGO THAT THE
NUMBERS IN ARIZONA WERE SURGING.
WE WERE MAKING NATIONAL
HEADLINES, WHICH IS NEVER A GOOD
THING TO MAKE NATIONAL HEADLINES
FOR.
YET, AS YOU QUOTED, I WAS TAKEN
ABACK BY BOTH THE PATIENT VOLUME
WE HAD IN THE EMERGENCY
DEPARTMENT AS WELL AS HOW SICK
THEY WERE.
A LOT OF THEM HAD SIGNIFICANT
RESPIRATORY COMPLAINTS.
AND AS YOU CAN GUESS, ALMOST ALL
OF THEM THAT WE TESTED TESTED
POSITIVE FOR COVID.
IT WAS CRAZY TO SEE HOW MANY OF
THEM WERE SICK AND HOW MANY OF
THEM WERE COVID POSITIVE.
>> AND IN OUR WORLD TODAY, IN
2020, WE’RE USED TO REAL-TIME
DATA.
BUT ONE OF THE THINGS WE
STRUGGLED WITH SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE OUTBREAK IS THE
DELAY.
YOU SAID WHAT YOU ARE SEEING
MAKES YOU THINK THAT THE DATA
HASN’T CAUGHT UP WITH THE
REALITY.
WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY THAT?
>> YEAH.
WHEN I WAS A RESEARCHER I ALWAYS
LIKED TO FOCUS ON THE DATA.
THAT BEING SAID, TO HAVE THAT
MANY PEOPLE IN THE HOSPITAL COME
BACK POSITIVE TOLD ME SOMETHING
WAS OFF.
I HAVE BEEN WORKING IN THE
EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT YEARS,
RIGHT, AND WE HAVE BEEN DOING
COVID TESTING FOR MANY MONTHS.
WE HAVE NOTICED THAT BEFORE AT
THE EARLY ONSET STAGES, ONLY
SOME PEOPLE WERE COVID POSITIVE
AND THEN MORE AND MORE.
I LITERALLY ASKED MY COLLEAGUE
ON SHIFT WHO WAS THE OTHER
ATTENDING PHYSICIAN, HEY, HAVE
YOU HAD ANY NEGATIVE TESTS, AND
HE TOLD ME WE HAVE ONE.
THAT GIVES YOU AN IDEA OF HOW
BAD IT IS IF WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
ONE CASE THAT IS NEGATIVE OUT OF
ALL THE ONES WE TESTED.
>> A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO, THE
PRESIDENT SAID IF WE JUST STOP
TESTING, WE’D SEE A DROP IN THE
NUMBER OF CASES.
AND I SUPPOSE WE’D SEE A DROP IN
THE NUMBER OF REPORTED CASES,
BUT IN FACT THAT WOULDN’T RESULT
IN A DROP OF THE NUMBER OF
PEOPLE THAT ARE ACTUALLY GETTING
THE INFECTION.
>> THAT’S EXACTLY RIGHT.
I GUESS I CAN’T DISAGREE WITH
THE STATEMENT.
IF YOU DON’T TEST ANYBODY, I
SUPPOSE NOBODY WILL BE POSITIVE.
SO THAT’S A SORT OF LOGICAL
ARGUMENT.
BUT OUR JOB AS PHYSICIANS IS TO
FIND THE DISEASE.
WE DO IT NOT JUST BY HOW THEY
LOOK CLINICALLY BUT HOW THEY
TEST FOR COVID.
THE NUMBER OF CASES IS
SKYROCKETING.
THAT’S FINE.
YOU ARE GOING TO GET MORE CASES
IF WE HAVE MORE TESTS, BUT THE
POSITIVITY RATE IS ALSO
INCREASING.
NOT ONLY ARE WE TESTING MORE,
WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD DROP THE
POSITIVITY RATE AS YOU ARE DOING
MORE WIDESPREAD TESTING
INCLUDING ASYMPTOMATIC PEOPLE.
QUITE THE OPPOSITE.
OUR POSITIVITY RATE IS GOING UP
AND BY A LOT.
IT IS ALMOST SHOCKING.
MAYBE I SHOULDN’T BE SURPRISED,
BUT I’M KIND OF SHOCKED.
>> THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.
A CLINICAL ASSISTANT PROFESSOR
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA