>> THE SEA AND THE CAPE FEAR RIVER THAT FEEDS IT HAVE DEFINED
WILMINGTON SINCE THE CITY'S FOUNDING IN THE 1720s.
IT HAS BECOME A MAJOR PORT OVER THE PAST THREE CENTURIES.
NOW CITY LEADERS ARE PLANNING FOR HOW SEA LEVEL RISE WILL
DEFINE THE CITS FUTURE.
>> THE SEA LEVEL IS RISING, HAS BEEN RISING, AND IT'S GOING
TO CONTINUE RISING.
WE'VE GOT INDISPUTABLE EVIDENCE ABOUT THAT.
IT WILL CONTINUE RISING.
THE REAL QUESTION IS HOW MUCH IT'S GONNA CONTINUE RISING.
>> RISING SEAS MEAN RISING WATER LEVELS ALL ALONG THE COAST,
INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND ESTUARIES.
WILMINGTON OFFICIALS ARE IDENTIFYING HOW SEA LEVEL RISE
COULD THREATEN THE CITY'S VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE,
SUCH AS ROADS AND WATER TREATMENT FACILITIES.
>> WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT IS INVESTMENTS IN THE COMMUNITY.
AND ONCE YOU START TALKING ABOUT PROTECTING THOSE INVESTMENTS AND
REALIZING THAT, WELL, YOU'RE PUTTING SOMETHING IN THE GROUND
THAT'S GONNA BE THERE FOR 50 TO A HUNDRED YEARS, AND WE BETTER
BE THINKING ABOUT WHERE WE'RE PUTTING IT AND WHAT ELEVATION
WE'RE PUTTING IT AT.
SO I THINK, YOU KNOW, WHAT -- I THINK IT'S CHANGED SOME
THINKING AND JUST IN TERMS OF AS WE GO FORWARD AND AS WE GO AND
REPAIR SOMETHING, IS THERE AN OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE ELEVATION TO PROTECT IT IN THE FUTURE.
THERE'S NOT GONNA BE A LOT OF WHOLESALE, OH, LET'S GO UP --
GO OUT AND RIP EVERYTHING UP AND REPLACE IT, UM, BUT I THINK IT'S
A MATTER OF AS YOU MOVE FORWARD, AS YOU ROLL FORWARD, YOU START
BUILDING THESE PROTECTIONS INTO YOUR THINKING.
>> THE PLANNING COMES AS A NEW REPORT FROM THE SCIENCE PANEL OF
THE COASTAL RESOURCES COMMISSION WARNS SEA LEVEL IS RISING AT
DIFFERENT RATES ALONG THE COAST.
REPORT ALSO SAYS THAT REGARDLESS OF THE RATE OF RISE, COASTAL
RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT MORE FREQUENT FLOODING IN LOW-LYING
AREAS.
>> WE HAVE SOME -- SOME PRETTY GOOD RECORDS OF -- OF CHANGES
OVER THE PAST 50 TO A HUNDRED YEARS, SO WE KNOW THAT THERE IS
THIS GRADUAL RATE OF -- OF SEA LEVEL RISE.
BUT, YOU KNOW, FOR EXAMPLE, OUR BEACHFRONT SETBACKS TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT HISTORICAL EROSION RATES.
AND, THEREFORE, THEY PROJECT THOSE OUT AND TRY TO SITE
DEVELOPMENT FAR ENOUGH BACK TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT LONG-TERM
EROSION ON THE BEACHFRONT.
UM, SO WE ALREADY HAVE SOME MANAGEMENT MEASURES IN PLACE AS
WELL AS SOME FLOOD MITIGATION MEASURES THAT -- UM, WHETHER
IT'S THE FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROGRAM, LOCAL GOVERNMENTS,
AND HOME -- HOMEOWNERS ARE TRYING TO DO TO REDUCE FLOOD
RISKS THAT WILL ALSO HELP, UH, WITH -- WITH GRADUAL SEA LEVEL
RISE.
>> THE NEW REPORT PROJECTS SEA LEVEL RISE OVER THE NEXT 30
YEARS.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY, THE PANEL LOOKED AT SEVERAL
SCENARIOS.
THE FIRST SHOWS A GRADUAL RISE IN SEA LEVEL BASED ON HISTORICAL
DATA FROM FIVE TIDAL GAUGES ALONG THE COAST.
VARIATIONS IN GEOGRAPHY AND OCEAN CURRENTS MEAN THE STATE'S
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SEE THE SMALLEST INCREASES.
SEA LEVELS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE GRADUALLY MOVING UP THE COAST
WITH THE SEAS RISING THE HIGHEST AT DUCK.
>> DUCK STANDS ON ITS OWN BASED ON IF ONE BELIEVES THAT THE
HISTORY THAT HAS GONE ON THERE WILL PREDICT WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN
THE NEXT 30 YEARS.
SO THOSE ESTIMATES ARE THE FIRST THINGS THAT WE PREDICT, WHAT WE
PUT INTO THE REPORT.
>> BUT THAT SCENARIO DOES NOT INCLUDE THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE.
THE SECOND PROJECTIONS ARE BASED ON TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS BASED
ON DATA FROM THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON
CLIMATE CHANGE.
NUMBERS ON THE LEFT ACCOUNT FOR MILD GREENHOUSE EMISSIONS WHILE
THE NUMBERS ON THE RIGHT ACCOUNT FOR HEAVY GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS AND THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
THESE PROJECTIONS STILL SHOW SEA LEVELS RISING LESS IN SOUTHPORT
THAN IN DUCK.
THE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT DATA SHOWING THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS IS SLOWLY SINKING.
>> WE TOOK THE LOWEST AND THE HIGHEST, AND THEN WE MODIFIED
THEM BASED ON WHAT WE KNEW LOCALLY ABOUT SUBSIDENCE OR
VERTICAL LAND MOTION TO -- TO MAKE THE PROJECTIONS LOCALLY
MEANINGFUL.
>> STATE LAWMAKERS REJECTED A SEA LEVEL RISE REPORT IN 2010
THAT USED A 100-YEAR TIMEFRAME.
THAT'S WHY THE COASTAL RESOURCES COMMISSION CHOSE TO LOOK AT SEA
LEVEL RISE OVER A 30-YEAR TIMEFRAME IN THIS REPORT.
THE SCIENCE PANEL WARNS THAT SHORTER TIMEFRAME MAY NOT BE
LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME PLANNING PURPOSES.
THE PANEL RECOMMENDS THE REPORT BE REVISED EVERY FIVE YEARS.
>> THINK ABOUT THIS IN THE MOST SIMPLE TERMS AS JUST FLOODING
OUR -- OUR SHORELINE, RIGHT?
WE'D LOSE SHORELINE.
WE'D LOSE LAND.
WE'D LOSE BITS AND PIECES OF OUR BARRIER ISLANDS.
I THINK WHAT IS FUNDAMENTALLY IMPORTANT IS THE LOSS OR THE
TRANSFORMATION OF LANDFORMS.
OUR MAPS WILL NO -- TODAY WILL NO LONGER BE WHAT THEY LOOK LIKE
IN 50, A HUNDRED YEARS.
>> NORTH CAROLINA NOW BECOMES THE FIRST STATE WITH A
COMPREHENSIVE FORECAST SHOWING THE SEA RISING AT DIFFERENT
RATES ALONG THE COAST.
THE REPORT IS OPEN FOR PUBLIC COMMENT.
IT IS DUE TO THE LEGISLATURE IN MARCH OF 2016.
MEANWHILE, COMMUNITIES ALONG THE COAST, LIKE WILMINGTON,
ARE LOOKING AHEAD.
>> WE DO KNOW IT'S RISING.
SO IT'S A MATTER OF, UM, TRYING TO GET AHEAD OF IT,
TRYING TO KNOW WHEN IT'S CRITICAL TO MAKE A DECISION
GOING FORWARD.