>>> CLOSE TO RECORD GDP, NOBODY
THOUGHT WE WOULD BE ANYWHERE
ABOVE, EVEN CLOSE TO 2.
WE'RE AT 4.1.
I THINK WE'RE GOING TO BE IN THE
5s.
AGAIN, NUMBERS THAT PEOPLE
WOULDN'T HAVE BELIEVED.
MARIA: PRESIDENT TRUMP LAST
DINNER WITH BUSINESS LEADERS,
HE TALKED ABOUT REVERSING YEARS
OF ECONOMIC UNEASE.
JOINS US NOW IS JOSEPH AMATO.
GOOD TO SEE YOU.
WHAT WOULD YOU THINK ABOUT 5%
GROWTH NEXT QUARTER?
YOU'VE SEEN THAT IN THE FIRST
COUPLE QUARTERS OF THE YEAR.
WE THINK THERE WILL BE A
SLOWDOWN OFF OF THE LEVELS THAT
WE ACHIEVED IN THE SECOND
QUARTER, THERE'S STILL A LOT OF
MARIA: SHOULD THE MARKET BE
HIGHER THAN WAR IT IS RIGHT NOW
GIVEN THE STRENGTH, 25% EARNINGS
GROWTH, GIVEN THE STRENGTH IN
THE ECONOMY, 4.1%.
OR DO YOU THINK THE MARKET IS
THE DOUBT AND WAITING AND THAT'S
WHY WE'RE NOT SEEING A BIGGER
MOVE?
IS TRADE HOLDING THINGS BACK?
BUT DURING PERIODS WHERE THE FED
IS INCREASING RATES, MARKETS,
EQUITY MARKETS TYPICALLY
STRUGGLE A BIT TO MOVE OUT OF A
RANGE.
UNTIL THE MARKETS SENSES THE FED
IS GOING TO STOP AND THE CYCLE
IS NOT GOING TO END, I THINK
YOU'LL SEE THE MARKET BE CHOPPY
OVER THE COURSE OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE YEAR.
>> ONE OF THE THINGS YOU TALKED
THAT LEADS ME TO THINK ABOUT
TECHNOLOGY, RIGHT.
AND SO ONE OF THE THINGS I
TALKED ABOUT ACTUALLY THIS
WEEKENDS, IN BARON'S THIS
DO REALLY WELL, ESPECIALLY IN
GROWING ENVIRONMENTS.
THEY'RE CHEAP ON A PRICE TO
EARNINGS GROWTH RATE.
PEOPLE TALK ABOUT HOW THEY'RE
EXPENSIVE.
WHERE AM I WRONG?
>> I THINK TECH HAS BEEN THE
DRIVER OF THE MARKET.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE RETURNS BY
SECTORS, TECH HAS BEEN THE
STRONGER PERFORMER.
THE DISRUPTION GOING ON, THE
SECULAR GROWTH THAT COMPANIES
ARE DRIVING IS WHAT INVESTORS
ARE LOOKING FOR.
WE EXPECT CONTINUED MOMENTUM IN
TECH FOR SURE, GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THAT SECTOR.
DAGEN: I WAS GOING TO QUICKLY
ASK, HOW HIGH CAN THE 10 YEAR
YIELD GO AND NOT DISRUPT THE
STOCK MARKET?
IF YOU WANT TO THROW OUT A
NUMBER.
IT'S STILL BELOW 3%.
>> WHEN YOU LOOK AT OVERALL
RATES, THEY'RE STILL LOW.
THE INCREASE OF THOSE RATES AS
WE TALKED ABOUT ARE A BIT OF A
HEAD DIS
AHAD DIS
AHEA DIS
AHEADWIS
HERE.
WHILE JAMIE DIMON MAY THINK IT'S
YOU HAVE POSITIVE CORRELATIONS
WITH THAT.
DAGEN: HE'S PRAYING ON IT AND
WISHING ON IT AND DREAMING ON IT
BECAUSE IT WOULD BE GOOD FOR HIS
BUSINESS.
MARIA: WHAT A PREDICTION, 5%,
BASED ON WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW.
SO YOU DON'T SEE THAT HAPPENING?
>> WE DON'T SEE THAT HAPPENING.
THE MARKET'S NOT ASSUMING THAT
THE 10 YEAR WILL GO TO 10%.
MARIA: WHAT ABOUT THE FED AND
THE UNWINDING OF THE BALANCE
SHEET.
>> I THINK ITS ONE OF THE
BIGGEST CONCERNS THAT I HAVE IS
THAT FOR YEARS THE FED WAS
INCREASING LIQUID AT THIS,
BALANCE SHEET WAS EXPANDING,
CENTRAL BANK BALANCE SHEETS WENT
FROM $4 TRILLION TO $15 TRILLION
OF BUYING OF BONDS.
THAT INFUSED LIQUID AT THIS IN -
THAT INFUSED LIQUID AT THIS IN L
THAT INFUSED LIQUID AT THIS IN Q
THAT INFUSED LIQUID AT THIS IN I
THAT INFUSED LIQUID AT THIS IN Y
THAT INFUSED LIQUID AT THIS IN I
THAT INFUSED LIQUID AT THIS IN N
THAT INFUSED LIQUID AT THIS IN T
THAT INFUSED LIQUID AT THIS IN E
SYSTEM.
THE FED IS DOING MODESTLY.
YOU'RE SEEING LIQUIDITY TAKEN
RATE PATH.
IF THE FED HAS TO REACT AND MOVE
QUICKER, I THINK THAT'S THE
BIGGEST RISK.
TRADE IS A HEADWIND FOR SURE.
WE'VE SEEN A BIT OF THE U.S.,
EUROPE SLOWDOWN IN TERMS OF
RHETORIC.
WE'VE SEEN U.S. NAFTA SLOW DOWN
A BIT, ALTHOUGH CHINA'S STILL
OUT THERE.
RESOLUTION.
>> WHAT ABOUT CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE?
DISNEY CAME OUT, ATTENDANCE IS
SOARING.
DO YOU THINK THAT WILL CONTINUE?
>> I THINK THE CONSUMER'S IN
TERRIFIC SHAPE.
THAT'S THE ENGINE OF THE U.S.
ECONOMY, THE STRONG CONSUMER
MARKET.
WAGE GROWTH HAS BEEN MODEST.
THE LABOR MARKET'S IN GOOD
SHAPE.
MARIA: SOUNDS LIKE YOU WOULD
BUY STOCK HERE.
>> WE PREFER EQUITIES FOR SURE.