I'm W A9 Weather watch
meteorologist Topper shut.
We are tracking Fiona and all the cases
are Fiona is going to be a category four
storm by Wednesday afternoon and just
a textbook eye as of Tuesday evening.
I mean that's just textbook as it
pulls away in the Turks and Caicos.
We've circled this area just off of
the South American coast and this
is a very concerning because this
is going to take a more southerly
track probably South of Puerto Rico,
South of the Dr in Haiti.
And probably kind of curving up around
Cuba and then in the Gulf of Mexico,
if this were to develop,
that would become Tropical Storm Hermine.
We already have Hurricane
Gaston and that's pulling away.
That's just a fish storm.
But this is what we're concerned about
because it's going to go in the Gulf
of Mexico could affect the East Coast,
I mean the Gulf Coast and it could affect
us on the East Coast in terms of maybe
storms and and some severe weather.
OK, So what the Hurricanes need,
they need warm,
warm sea surface temperatures and man,
is it out there.
I mean,
84 degrees just north of the the
Dr and on its way to Bermuda as
it tracks more north and then
NE water temperature 86 degrees.
That is just gonna fuel Fiona.
And one reason I think the National
Hurricane Center thinks is going
to become a category four during
the day on Wednesday.
There's no upper air currents to
hinder that development either.
So you need both.
All right, let's talk about wave heights.
Let's zoom in a little bit.
As of Tuesday night, north of the Turks,
Caicos, right there on the bullseye.
The dark gold wave height of 31 feet,
that's crazy. And that is headed
north and then NE toward Bermuda.
OK, So what about the eye?
I mean that is just simply textbook.
It's probably about 10 miles in diameter,
which is a pretty good, pretty good size eye.
Good news though, you know,
the Puerto Rico's done with storms,
couple leftover showers and storms
in the Dr that is about it.
It's going to move away pretty quickly.
So here are the spaghetti plots.
Now each line is a computer model,
and they're in pretty good agreement,
taking the storm primarily West of Bermuda.
The closer it gets to Bermuda while it stays,
W is going to be worse for Bermuda.
Especially because they had this forecast
to be a category four as it's flying by.
So that's pretty good agreement,
really, all things considered.
Now here's what the National
Hurricane Center track looks like.
It takes all of that information,
and this is the official track.
Category 4 by 2:00 PM on Wednesday.
Category 4 by 3:00 PM on Thursday, winds 140.
And remember, when we say wins are 140,
that's sustained.
Winds are 140.
That's some incredible energy,
not gusts sustained.
By just after midnight
Friday late Thursday night,
it is West of Bermuda as a cat 4.
The good news is it's pretty far West and
the official track takes it pretty far West
and then slams it toward Newfoundland.
Even by, you know, 3:00 PM on Saturday,
winds could be 100 mph.
I know it says an L here,
but it takes it from a cat two to an
LA little too quickly for my taste.
It's still going to be a hurricane
before it makes landfall,
with winds 100 miles an hour. OK.
So we talk about categories a lot and,
and Fiona is our first quote,
major hurricane, what is the major hurricane?
Cat three or higher.
So Cat 3 sustained winds or 111 to 129,
get to CAT4130 to 156 and then you know
anything over 156 is a Category 5 storm.
So right now it's a category three,
but more than likely it's going to be a
category four during the day on a Wednesday.
OK. So the names.
We're all way down to Gaston
and Danielle was a Category 1,
Earl was a category two.
Fiona is a category three,
probably destined to be a
four category one for Gaston.
The the first few storms,
first three storms were just simply
tropical storms and Hermine is Next up
on the list and and we'll see if for me
develops in the next two to three days.
So the forecast remember you know
Nash Hurricane Center said hey we're
going 14 to 20 named storms of those.
6 to 10 will become hurricanes.
Of those,
three to five will become major hurricanes.
So we'll see. We're only on.
Our first major hurricane.
But but that said,
we're in the in the throes of pretty
serious development in terms of the month.
I mean this is the month,
September is a hurricane month,
36% of all storms develop.
October, 19%,
still possible,
but this is the time to make hay,
so to speak.
And we are with Fiona and I think
Hermine will develop and head toward the
Gulf late this week and into next week.