As we've been reporting, the Taliban continue to make gains in Afghanistan, seizing
more and more territory, especially in the north.
Stephanie Sy has more.
William, the Taliban seizure of nine provincial capitals and vast surrounding
lands now means that the insurgents hold loose control of two thirds of Afghanistan.
All this as the US and NATO finalize their withdrawal by the end of this month after
two decades of war. So what has been the Taliban's strategy?
How have they conquered this territory so quickly?
For that, we turn to Bill Roggio. He is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense
of Democracies and the editor of their Long War Journal,
Bill Roggio. Thank you for joining the News Hour.
You've been watching this rapid succession of Taliban victories.
We have a map that shows the regional capitals they now control those nine
black squares you see in the north and the west.
The pink areas are Taliban controlled.
The lighter yellow is government controlled.
And you can see below the darker yellow is a huge chunk of the country.
Those lands are currently under Taliban threat.
What do you see as the insurgents strategy and objective?
You know, the insurgents, the Taliban's objectives is to seize control of Afghanistan,
to reestablish its Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, that's the name of its government
prior to the US invasion.
It will do this by force or it will do it via diplomacy and
via diplomacy means the Taliban will accept the Afghan government surrender.
The Afghan government isn't. So the Taliban is taking it by force.
It has focused on taking areas in the West and particularly in the north.
These are strategic areas for that, for the Taliban and for the Afghan government.
Many Afghan powerbrokers are based in the north.
This is where they derive their power. And the Taliban has could easily take the south
and much of the east if it focused its forces there.
But instead, what the Taliban decided to do is to go straight after the
government strength. And that's why seven of the nine provincial capitals in northern
Afghanistan are under Taliban control.
And they're the to destroy.
I'm sorry, the two provinces in western Afghanistan, they also are under Taliban control.
The Taliban ultimately is seeking to surround Kabul strangelet and either
force the surrender or militarily take the capital of Kabul.
OK, let's let's pass everything you set out a little bit, because the north is typically
not where the Taliban is the strongest, and yet they've been able to take all those
capital. So tactically, what has the Taliban done to lay the groundwork
and set conditions to accomplish this?
The Taliban leveraged its alliance with al-Qaida in
order to gain control of areas.
What it did, it used al-Qaida group associated groups, Tajik and Uzbek groups
to gain influence in the northern areas.
And this so this was very effective.
It allowed them to reach out to Tajiks, Uzbeks and Turkmen to increase
the ranks because the Taliban traditionally in the Middle East in the 1990s was primarily
a Pashtun organization based in the south, in the East, and instead
by expanding its its influence and its reach in the north
to these groups, if it's allowed, it's increased its combat power, that this
is the untold story of what has happened in the north.
We have to remember that the North was the last bastion of resistance
to the Taliban pre 9/11. Badakhshan province, which is currently under Taliban control,
was the headquarters of the Northern Alliance. And now the Taliban, with the help
of al-Qaida, leverage those assets.
And this is how we're seeing this remarkable success in the north.
OK, that's the strategy, and I want to go back to al-Qaida in a bit, but I want to ask
you about tactics. Did we also see that there was prepositioning of, for example, weapons
and fighters in those northern cities?
Absolutely what the Taliban did since the U.S.
handed over security to the Afghan forces and back in 2014,
they focused on taking control of rural areas.
US generals, the commanders, they dismissed this and said we're going to focus on the
population centers. The Taliban said, that's fine.
We'll work on the rural areas. We'll stage from there and we'll expand our control
outward. This was this Taliban strategy is over a decade in the making.
They explained it in English, by the way.
So it was all out there to see, but unfortunately bad US and Afghan
and NATO strategy combined with solid Taliban strategy.
And yes, they were stockpiling weapons in every area.
They took control. They gained more and more material.
And this is how we've seen this spread.
It's gone from the rural areas and now it is inside the Afghan cities.
Several provincial capitals are under threat right now.
We may see two or three more capitals fall in the next 24 to 48 hours.
And you did say there is an approach toward Kabul.
My question is, do you think that the US foresaw the level of coordination
and efficiency on the battlefield that the Taliban has shown in the last week?
I think this is one of the greatest intelligence failures in decades,
certainly in US military history.
The Taliban organize this offensive.
It planned it. It it prepared it, organized it, recruit
recruited it. It deployed fighters.
It prepositioned war material all under the nose of the US
military, NATO and Afghan intelligence.
This is this story has to be told.
It's it's what the Taliban did in the north particularly is significant.
And everyone was caught off guard.
Remember, the President Biden and his his administration is basically
their estimate that the Afghan government was able to hold out and now they're talking.
The US latest US estimate is that Kabul could fall within 90 days.
There are mounting critiques now of the US withdrawal, but the US mission, as you
know, in Afghanistan, was explicitly to deny al-Qaida a safe haven
after 9/11. So if the Taliban do return to power, do you think al-Qaida
will again be able to plot attacks against the United States from Afghanistan?
Absolutely, the Taliban al Qaeda alliance is as strong
as it ever has been. The Taliban claims with that Doha deal,
which really was a deal to get the U.S.
to withdraw from Afghanistan. The Taliban claims that they won't allow Afghanistan
to be used as a base of operations for foreign terror groups.
But the Taliban made the same promise pre 9/11.
And we all saw what happened then. The Taliban couldn't be trusted.
Then they couldn't be they can't be trusted today.
And you could be certain that al-Qaida will be seeking to leverage its relationship with
the Taliban to plot attacks against the West.
So are the negotiations that are taking place in Doha between the Taliban and the US
envoy who just arrived there yesterday, Zalmay Khalilzad.
Are they relevant, are at all, or is the military taking orders from the folks
in Doha or vice versa?
The negotiations in Doha, a smokescreen it's designed to give false
hope to the United States, to NATO and particularly to the Afghan government, that
there will be a negotiated solution. The Taliban's position has been the same
for, well, for two decades now.
It has stated in English on Voice of Jihad, its website numerous
times, even seven days after signing the Doha agreement, that the only acceptable
outcome of this war would be the reestablishment of the Islamic Emirate with
habia to Akhundzada its Amir as the leader of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan,
the Taliban and the Doha Group in the Taliban's Doha Group is merely
providing that screen they're giving again.
It's giving false hope to everyone.
Tying up diplomatic efforts while the Taliban tries to take the Taliban would
accept the surrender of the Afghan government.
Remember, that would lead to the peace. That would be the peace of the Taliban.
But they'll take it militarily.
That is not a political settlement, a surrender, Bill Roggio.
Thank you for coming on The NewsHour and sharing your point of view.
Thank you very much.