>>> WE HAVE A SIMPLE MESSAGE FOR ALL COUNTRIES.
ALL COUNTRIES. TEST, TEST, TEST.
TEST EVERY SUSPECTED CASE.
>> THE DIRECTOR GENERAL OF THE
WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION WITH
THAT MESSAGE.
THAT MESSAGE. BUT THE SUSPECTED CASES MIGHT
NOT BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE.
A NEW STUDY PUBLISHED IN THE
JOURNAL "SCIENCE" IS PUTTING A
HARD FIGURE BEHIND THE NUMBER OF
PEOPLE WHO MAY BE WALKING AROUND
WITH THE VIRUS UNKNOWINGLY.
BASED ON DATA FROM THE CHINA,
RESEARCHERS FOUND THAT
UNDOCUMENTED INFECTIONS WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR 79% OF
DOCUMENTED CASES.
DOCUMENTED CASES. TO PUT IN ANOTHER WAY,
SCIENTISTS SAY, FOR EVERY KNOWN
CASE, THERE ARE ABOUT FIVE TO
TEN UNDETECTED CASES.
THE STUDY FOUND THAT THOSE WITH
UNDOCUMENTED INFECTIONS
UNDOCUMENTED INFECTIONS EXPERIENCE MILD, LIMITED, OR NO
SYMPTOMS AT ALL.
THAT, OF COURSE, PUTS MORE
PEOPLE AT RISK, PAUSEBECAUSE THE
ILLNESSES GO UNTEDEFECTED.
JOINING US NOW, THE DIRECTOR OF
THE HARVARD GLOBAL INSTITUTION.
HE IS A PRACTICING PHYSICIAN AND
ALSO PROFESSOR OF MEDICINE AT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL.
WELCOME BACK TO THE SHOW.
GREAT TO HAVE YOU BACK ON.
DOCTOR --
DOCTOR -- >> GOOD MORNING.
>> -- WHERE DO WE STAND RIGHT
NOW?
NOW? THERE ARE HOSPITALS IN NEW YORK
CITY, IN MAJOR CITIES, WHERE THE
EMERGENCY ROOMS ARE NOT THAT
SEPARATED IN TERMS OF PEOPLE
COMING IN AND TRYING TO GET
TESTS.
TESTS. TESTS NOT BEING AVAILABLE.
WAITING IN HALLWAYS.
THIS HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST
WEEK.
WEEK. THIS APPEARS TO BE HEADED IN A
VERY BAD DIRECTION.
>> YEAH.
>> YEAH. SO, LOOK, WE’RE STILL WAY BEHIND
THE CURVE IN TERMS OF WHERE WE
NEED TO BE ON TESTING.
THE GOOD NEWS IS JUST IN THE
LAST 12, 24 HOURS, I’M STARTING
TO SEE DATA, HEARING FROM
COLLEAGUES, THAT WE’RE STARTING
TO GET MOVING ON TESTING.
AGAIN, WE’RE WAY BEHIND.
I DON’T WANT TO OVER-SELL THIS.
WE ABSOLUTELY NEED A LOT MORE
TESTS.
TESTS. MY SENSE IS WE’RE DOING ABOUT
10,000 TESTS A DAY, MAYBE,
ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
WE PROBABLY SHOULD BE DOING
100,000 TO 150,000 TESTS A DAY,
MAYBE EVEN MORE.
WE HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO.
JUST STARTING TO SEE A LITTLE
PROGRESS.
PROGRESS. >> DR. JHA, WILLIE GEIST.
HELP US UNDERSTAND THAT.
THE WHITE HOUSE TOLD US THAT 1
MILLION TEST KITS HAVE BEEN SENT
OUT.
OUT. THERE ARE 5 MILLION ON THE WAY.
WHERE ARE THOSE?
WHY AREN’T THEY BEING USED AT
THE PACE YOU SAY WE SHOULD BE
USING THEM?
USING THEM? >> YEAH.
>> YEAH. YOU KNOW, LOOK, WE HEARD A
COUPLE WEEKS AGO FROM VICE
PRESIDENT PENCE THERE WERE A
MILLION KITS ON THE WAY.
I DON’T KNOW WHERE WE ARE.
NONE OF THE HEALTH OFFICIALS I’M
TALKING TO KNOW WHERE THEY ARE.
WHAT HOSPITALS ARE STARTING TO
DO IS MUCH MORE COMING FROM
THEIR OWN LABS, FROM PRIVATE
LABS.
LABS. I THINK ALL OF US ARE A LITTLE
BAFFLED BY WHAT THE FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT IS SAYING.
THE PROGRESS IS AT THE LOCAL
LEVEL.
LEVEL. >> YOU SAID -- I WAS READING YOU
ON TWITTER BEFORE YOU CAME ON,
DR. J HHA.
YOU’RE CALLING FOR A NATIONAL
QUARANTINE.
QUARANTINE. CAN YOU EXPLAIN WHAT EXACTLY
THAT WOULD LOOK LIKE IN THIS
COUNTRY?
COUNTRY? >> YEAH.
>> YEAH. YOU KNOW, THIS IS -- LOOK, I
DON’T SAY THIS LIGHTLY, AND I’VE
BEEN THINKING ABOUT THIS FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS.
WHAT I’M WATCHING THE DATA,
AMERICA, YOU KNOW, WE’RE UP TO
4,500 CASES.
4,500 CASES. I THINK MOST EXPERTS I TALK TO,
MY OWN GUESS IS THAT WE PROBABLY
HAVE 30,000, 40,000 AMERICANS
INFECTED RIGHT NOW, AND IT IS
GROWING EXPONENTIALLY.
GROWING EXPONENTIALLY. OUR HOSPITALS AND EMERGENCY
ROOMS ARE NOT READY.
SO WE HAVE TWO CHOICES.
BASICALLY, WE CAN EITHER HAVE A
NATIONAL QUARANTINE NOW, TWO
WEEKS.
WEEKS. GET A GRIP ON WHERE THINGS ARE,
AND REASSESS.
AND REASSESS. OR WE CANNOT, WAIT ANOTHER WEEK,
AND WHEN THINGS LOOK REALLY
TERRIBLE, BE FORCED INTO IT.
THAT’S GOING TO LAST MUCH
LONGER.
LONGER. MANY MORE PEOPLE WILL DIE.
THOSE ARE OUR TWO CHOICES.
GET AHEAD OF IT OR WAIT UNTIL
WE’RE EVEN FURTHER BEHIND.
WHAT IT IS GOING TO LOOK LIKE IS
ITALY.
ITALY. ESSENTIAL SERVICES WILL BE OPEN,
GROCERIES, PHARMACIES.
GROCERIES, PHARMACIES. NON-ESSENTIAL STUFF, PEOPLE STAY
HOME.
HOME. NO PUBLIC GATHERINGS.
NO BARS, NO RESTAURANTS.
IT IS GOING TO BE REALLY HARD.
ECONOMICALLY, VERY TOUGH.
THE ALTERNATIVE IS ECONOMICALLY
MORE DEVASTATING.
MORE DEVASTATING. WE’RE BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD
PLACE.
PLACE. WE HAVE TO MAKE THE RIGHT CALL.
>> WE’RE LOOKING AT -- ARE WE
LOCKING AT MSHLGEMERGENCY ROOMS
ICUs BEING FILLED BEYOND
CAPACITY, AND THE UNITED STATES
NOT BEING ABLE TO KEEP UP?
>> YEAH.
>> YEAH. YOU KNOW, WE’VE BEEN DOING SOME
ANALYSES, HOPING TO MAKE THEM
PUBLIC LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
WE GET THE NUMBERS FINALIZED.
BASICALLY, EVEN UNDER VERY ROSY
SCENARIOS, IF WE DO NOTHING,
MOST HOSPITALS IN AMERICA WILL
GET OVERWHELMED, WILL HAVE TOO
MANY CASES.
MANY CASES. THEY WON’T HAVE ENOUGH ICU BEDS.
EVERY HOSPITAL EXECUTIVE THIS
MORNING HAS TO BE CANCELLING ALL
ELECTIVE CASES, STRATEGIZING FOR
HOW YOU KEEP CO-VID AND NON-COVI
PATIENTS SEPARATED.
PATIENTS SEPARATED. IF WE OVERREACT, WE’LL WASTE
MONEY.
MONEY. IF WE UNDERREACT, WE’LL COUNT
LOSSES IN LIVES AND MONEY.
TO ME, THIS IS NOT A CLOSE CALL.
WE HAVE TO GET MUCH MORE SERIOUS
THAN WE ARE.
>> DR. JHA, DONNY DEUTSCH.
WHAT IS THE DATA POINT WE WAIT
FOR, THAT THERE IS A LITTLE
LIGHT?
LIGHT? WHAT HAS TO BE SAID THAT --
RIGHT NOW, ARE WE SHUT DOWN
THROUGH AUGUST?
THROUGH AUGUST? WHAT WOULD BE THE POINT THAT
YOUR COMMUNITY SAYS, OKAY, WE
CAN START TO GET BACK TO WHO WE
ARE?
ARE? >> YEAH.
>> YEAH. IT IS A GREAT QUESTION.
SO WE’RE, LIKE, TWO STEPS AWAY
FROM EVEN BEING ABLE TO MAKE
THAT DECISION.
THAT DECISION. RIGHT NOW, BECAUSE WE DON’T HAVE
TESTS, WE DON’T KNOW HOW MANY
CASES THERE ARE IN AMERICA.
WE DON’T KNOW WHERE ON THE CURVE
WE ARE.
WE ARE. EVERYBODY IS SAYING WE’RE TWO
WEEKS BEHIND ITALY.
I DON’T KNOW IF WE’RE TWO WEEKS
BEHIND ITALY.
BEHIND ITALY. WE MAY BE CLOSER TO ITALY
BECAUSE WE’RE NOT TESTING
ADEQUATELY.
ADEQUATELY. WHAT I WOULD LIKE IS FOR US TO
TAKE A BIG PAUSE, TWO WEEKS.
DURING THAT TIME, RAMP UP
TESTING.
TESTING. GET ALL THE PEOPLE WHO NEED TO
BE TESTED TEST, TESTED.
WE’LL HAVE A GRIP ON THE EXTENT
OF THE INFECTIONS, WHAT
COMMUNITIES ARE AFFECTED, WE CAN
STRATEGIZE AND PLAN, THEN WE CAN
SAY, HOW DO WE BEND THE CURVE
AND GET OFF OF WHAT IS A TSUNAMI
IN FRONT OF US, HOW DO WE GET
AHEAD OF IT?
WE NEED THE NATIONAL PAUSE NOW.
I DON’T SEE ANYBODY BEING ABLE
TO MAKE PREDICTIONS ABOUT IS IT
MAY, IS IT AUGUST, IS IT ALL
YEAR?
YEAR? I THINK IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL.
WE DON’T EVEN KNOW WHERE WE ARE
TODAY.
TODAY. >> DR. JHA, THANK YOU FOR COMING
BACK ON THE SHOW.
>> SORRY TO BE DELIVERING BAD
NEWS.
NEWS. THANK YOU.
THANK YOU. >> NO, REWE APPRECIATE IT.
I THINK WE’RE ALL BEGINNING TO
UNDERSTAND THIS AND TAKE IT IN.
IT IS DAY BY DAY.
DR. JHA, WE REALLY DO NEED THE
SCIENCE HERE.
SCIENCE HERE. WE NEED THE REALITY CHECK.
IT’S NOT PRETTY.