geoff: For a mid-summer check-in
of the presidential race
including newly-released
fundraising totals, we are
joined by our politics Monday
team.
That's Amy Walter of the cook
political report with Amy
Walter, and Tamara Keith of NPR.
It is good to see you both.
Let's start with this
controversy surrounding this
group no labels.
They say they are offering an
alternative, but it is not clear
what that alternative will be.
Joe Manchin, former governor of
Utah Joe huntsman, they were
both in New Hampshire at a no
labels event today.
It is not clear they would be
the ticket if they -- if there
is a ticket.
Amy, for the masses who say they
are dissatisfied either two
choices, do they really want a
third alternative?
Do they want a third-party
candidate?
Amy: This is what the difficulty
is in trying to pull the
question of a third-party
candidate.
In theory, of course.
You get a choice between two
people and you are like, I don't
know I love this matchup, I
would love another alternative,
especially somebody who says
they are centrist and moderate.
My centrist and moderate may be
different from yours or from
tam's.
My idea of the ideal candidate
is difficult to poll.
Then you put the actual
candidate in there, I see that
candidate and go, that person is
too conservative or liberal.
That is difficult to do.
The other piece, I understand
why Democrats are as worried as
they are.
42,000 votes separated Donald
Trump from being reelected again
that the electoral college
margin was 42,000 votes.
Any sliver could take votes away
from Joe Biden.
At the same time, there are also
Republicans, many of them who
continue to vote in the
Republican primary, they say
they don't want trump to be the
nominee.
They probably voted for Donald
Trump in 2020.
Those voters also might be
willing to support a third-party
candidate.
If you are Democrats and you see
the last two times that the
white house was lost, even
though your candidate won the
popular vote in 2000 and in
2016, easy third-party candidate
and you think disaster.
Geoff: How are Democrats
planning to confront this
challenge or is it too early?
Tamara: I asked the campaign and
they had no on the record
comment for me.
Which is to say, they have a lot
of thoughts they are not
publicly sharing.
I think that's where they are,
is kind of hoping this will go
away.
Having friends who are putting
together groups that are
pointing out the concerns and
challenges that could exist with
this.
If you look at history, George H
W bush faced -- there was a
third-party candidate in 1992,
the incumbent ended up losing,
Prospero, certainly siphoned
votes away from him.
If you look into thousand -- in
2000, with Al gore who was
certainly like an incumbent, and
there was a lack of enthusiasm
out there.
Ralph Nader got just enough
votes to help George W. Bush
win.
Third-party candidates are a
concern for major party
candidates because they can take
away votes, they can
destabilize, they can change the
dynamic.
But the thing a third party has
not been able to do and it is
not clear no labels is going to
do this either is break the grip
of the two-party system on
American politics, which is what
everybody who hates the
two-party system like to do, but
no one has found a way because
of the way the system is set up
to break that grip.
Geoff: Let's talk about the
money race.
We are getting a first full
financial look at the 2020 for
financial race.
I have to put my glasses on to
look at the numbers here.
On the Republican side, look at
this number.
Ron Desantis, he raised a strong
$20 million.
His campaign is burning through
cash at a rapid rate.
His presidential campaign is
shedding staff as it navigates
this cash crunch.
Less than 15% of his
contributors have come from
small donors.
What does that suggest about the
strength of his campaign?
Amy: For the Desantis campaign,
you have to look at how much
money he is raising and
spending, and he has a super
pac.
Their reports are not due until
the end of the month.
There is a lot of money being
spent regardless of whether it
is in his coffers.
And a lot of those are the big
donors.
They are not coming from small
donors.
The other thing about, whenever
I see a campaign say, well, yes,
we are getting a lot of
candidates, are candidate is not
getting traction, we have to
shake up our campaign stuff, it
is usually the candidate that is
the problem.
It is very rarely the campaign
is the reason you are not
breaking through.
Should they spend less money?
Sure.
Maybe have lower overhead.
To challenge the Desantis
campaign has now is the
messenger and the message not
the fact that they have too many
people on the payroll.
Geoff: On the democratic side,
the president announced he
raised north of $19 million.
Biden's campaign is a real
bare-bones operation.
He spent more than $1 million in
the second quarter of this year.
By contrast, Barack obama,'s
campaign at the time spent more
than $11 million.
President Biden is taking
campaign frugality to an
entirely new level.
Tamara: What you have to say
about these numbers is in order
to make an apples to apples
comparison, well, it is
impossible.
Also, in order to make an apples
to apples comparison to previous
cycles, you have to look at both
the campaign itself and the
democratic party.
Or in the case of trump, the
trump campaign and the
Republican party in the
reelection year.
In that case, president Biden,
the total with the joint fund
committee and the democratic
national committee is up to $72
million.
That is not as much or trump
had.
Problems with apples and Oranges
and all of the comparisons.
Yes, the Biden campaign is
leaning incredibly on the
democratic national committee.
They are fundraising everything
they are doing is being done in
lockstep and in coronation.
It really, more than former
president Obama, it really is
one campaign.
The only campaign style rallies
he has done so far in this
campaign were put on by outside
groups and the democratic
national committee.
The Biden campaign did not put
on those events.
It did not come from the line
item of the democratic -- from
president Biden's campaign
geoff: Looking at these numbers,
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., his
presidential campaign included
donors who typically contribute
to Republicans.
That was clear in the campaign
finance filings.
He is someone who constantly
courts controversy.
Is latest con -- comments about
a conspiracy theory of covid are
fueling -- here is part of what
he said.
>> Covid-19 is targeted to
attack caucasians and black
people.
The people who are --
we don't know if they
deliberately targeted them or
not but there are papers out
there that show the racial and
ethnic differential impact.
Geoff: Rfk junior said he was
misunderstood, he was taken out
of context.
That aside, there was a time
where that sort of thing would
be campaign ending and career
ending, and yet.
Tamara: And yet we are covering
it.
He continues to get a great deal
of whether we want to call it
oxygen, or maybe some of this
donor support, because he is out
there so much, even with
controversy.
We know that controversy pays.
The one thing I'm curious to see
as we come and see new polling
in the upcoming days is whether
this controversy is taking the
toll on his poll numbers.
We saw some polling where he was
as high as 20%.
Let's see if since we have had
all of these discussions, is
numbers with Democrats are much
lower.
Geoff: Amy Walter and Tamara
Keith, we will see you back here
next Monday.
♪♪