Manchester City host Real Madrid with a 2-1 aggregate lead in the Champions League Round
of 16. The last two fixtures between these teams at the Etihad ended in draws, though
Real have won five or their previous 11 Champions League games in England and Zinedine Zidane
has never been eliminated from the competition at this stage as a manager. City have progressed
in each of the seven times they’ve taken a lead into the second leg of a game, but
what do they need to do to knock out Real?
One-player-teams don’t win La Liga, but for all the creative quality of Kroos and
Modric, and the defensive solidity of Casemiro and Varane, this is Benzema’s triumph. The
striker scored 21 of Real Madrid’s 70 league goals, with Sergio Ramos the only other Madrid
player scoring more than four; he got 11.
It’s not just that, though. Looking at Real’s squad by expected assists per 90, which is
the likelihood that a chance created will become an assist, Benzema is third and, apart
from Hazard, the only likely starter among the top seven.
Benzema is also top five in the squad for shot and goal creating actions, showing just
how heavily he’s involved in build-up, even when he’s not the finisher. If City can
mark Benzema out of the game, it doesn’t matter how much they have the ball deeper,
because no one else in the squad comes close to Benzema for goal scoring or creativity
in and around the box. Should Zidane select Marco Asensio, City will have to watch him
too, as he’s similarly dangerous, but so far, the coach seems reluctant to do so.
One of the ways Manchester City can stop Benzema is by defending certain areas of the pitch
better than they have been. City have conceded a lot from outside the box this season, and
they have a particular vulnerability for conceding both goals and shots from the two channels
in front of where the centre backs would normally be. This is partly because City have had a
less decisive screening presence in Fernandinho at defensive midfield for much of the season,
and also because City have dropped back and defended quite deep to compensate for a lack
of pace.
This is an issue against Real, because they will likely attack City’s right channel
through the combination play of Karim Benzema, who often shifts across to that side, Eden
Hazard, and Ferland Mendy or Marcelo. Midfielder Federico Valverde also pushes up into this
space, and Madrid look effective when combining quickly in this area, running at opposition
backlines, and creating shooting chances. It’s an area where City have struggled,
so they can try to mitigate this. The right-sided centre back, likely Nicolas Otamendi, will
need to be dynamic and push up. The right full back may tuck inside to help out, which
could also mean more in terms of tracking back for the right winger. And whoever plays
in defensive midfield, be it Rodri or Fernandinho, will need to be alive to the threat and assisted
by the right central midfielder, probably Kevin de Bruyne.
This channel must be defended well, or Real can expose a vulnerability City have shown
all season.
Real Madrid’s defence is quite sharply divided between left and right: on the left, Mendy
or Marcelo like to dribble the ball forwards, beating players and making yards, while Dani
Carvajal is a more creative passer who’s harder to dispossess; according to data from
Statsbomb, Mendy has had a hand in more goal-scoring moves per 90, while Carvajal leads in shot-creating
moves. With Ramos suspended, Varane should move to the left, with Eder Militao coming
in at right-sided centre back. To cover for Mendy’s forays up the pitch,
Varane will have to be a more proactive defender, making more interceptions and making his defensive
actions further up the pitch than his right-sided colleague. Varane is normally the more passive
defender when paired with Ramos, too.
This gives Manchester City two methods of attack that could yield opportunities. On
the right, they should look to squeeze Carvajal and Militao in – the right back is easier
to press and gives away more interceptions or blocked passes than Mendy on the left.
Hem them in with a high press, and City might be able to turn the ball over nearer to the
Real Madrid goal to create an attacking opportunity.
On the left, City should look to exploit Mendy’s attacking style and ball carrying, and Varane’s
moves up the pitch to cover, by trying to rob the ball in tackles and then exploiting
the space in behind the full back. This will force Ramos to cover across and back, leaving
space in front of Real’s left channel than De Bruyne can exploit. Different sides, different
approaches, but City could profit from both.