The first day of winter is next
Wednesday, and with it comes
the chance of winter weather.
It's tough to tell what the forecast
will be weeks ahead of time,
but we can find a couple hints.
Here's the WFY News 2 Winter weather outlook.
December is here.
That means it's time for the
annual news 2 winter forecast.
Before we unveil that,
let's talk about one of the
typical winter in the triad.
Even look like.
If you look at temperatures on average,
we see about low 40s.
That's taken into account
the highs and the lows,
precipitation, rain, snow,
sleet, everything all together
melted down 9 1/2 inches.
That's on average or so.
The average snow in the
triad is about 7 inches,
and we only usually see two to three
days per winter season with an inch or.
What months are we likely to
have snow here in the Piedmont?
But to answer that question,
we gotta look at data from PTI.
First of all, you know,
going all the way back to 1903.
We've had just under 1000 inches
of snow here in the Piedmont,
and in a normal winter season
we would have about 7 inches.
Snows very little in November,
a little bit more in December.
Our snowiest month is January
followed by February,
but don't discount.
The month of March,
the first part of that month,
we can have some pretty big storms
here in the Piedmont.
When we think about what kind of
winter we may have and the Piedmont
and across North Carolina, we have to
really boil it down to the science.
So you've likely heard the
terms El Nino and La Nina.
And now for the third year in a row,
we're in a La Nina weather pattern.
So what does that mean? Well,
it all happens out in the Pacific Ocean.
That's where it starts with cooling
ocean water near the equator
and with cooler ocean water,
we get less thunderstorms to form.
So we have less storm or less opportunities.
Meanwhile, the subtropical jet stream,
which carries weather systems across
the country is also a bit weaker.
So we get.
Less in the way of moisture and
less in the way of storm systems,
which means we have less of a
chance at bat during the winter
to get any kind of weather system
to turn into winter weather.
So with a less active storm track.
Now,
the second piece of the puzzle is cold air.
You got to have cold air,
a polar jet and a lenina year
lives further to the north.
So we have less in the way of
Arctic outbreaks, less cold air,
less storm systems,
which means the wetter weather
stays mainly to the north.
The drier weather stays across the South.
And yes, that includes us in North Carolina.
And when you think about less cold air.
Yes,
we're looking at a warmer winter
here in the Piedmont and North
Carolina and all across the South.
Meanwhile,
the colder winter lives up to the north.
Looking at those La Nina years can give
us clues to what will happen this year.
We gathered a collection of years from recent
memory and took a look at what that means.
Let's start with precipitation.
In those specific winters, we had a
little bit less precipitation than usual,
in fact by about half an inch or so.
So this year we could expect things
to be a little drier than normal,
but that doesn't.
Always mean less snow.
Looking at those same winters.
When it comes to temperature,
notice it's usually a little bit warmer
than average by about 1/2 a degree.
So we could expect
this season's temperatures to be slightly
warmer than usual. It'll still be cold,
but not as much as normal. Now, one factor
we have to take into account with
seasonal forecasts is climate change.
If you look back to the 1970s,
our triad winters are warmer than they
used to be by about 4 1/2 degrees.
But all anyone wants to talk about is snow.
Those warmer winters we've been seeing
have cut into our average snowfall.
In fact, it's decreased by about half
an inch over the last ten years or so.
The normal is about 7 inches
here in the triad.
In the years I analyze similar winters well,
they showed pretty close to that,
around 6.8 inches.
Not a very big difference,
which tells me we should probably
expect near average snowfall.
But keep in mind snow is fickle.
Here in the triad, all that snow.
Well, it could be one or several smaller,
different snow events.
To sum it all up,
here's your news 2 winter forecast for
2022-2023. We expect things to
be slightly drier than
normal, slightly warmer
than normal snow. Should be
somewhat close to our average
ice. Same story. Be prepared.
You know our triad winters
can have a mind of their own.
Yes, they do. I can't help but
look at that slightly warmer.
This does not mean we're going to be
wearing shorts during winter time.
A lot of people get
confused because often we say we
will have an above average winter.
Most of our recent winters
have been warmer than average.
But keep in mind,
winter is always winter.
It's always going to be the
coldest season of the year.
It's never going to be 70s all the time.
So when we say slightly
warmer, we're talking about 43.5 instead
of 42. I mean, that might not sound like
a big difference, and it really isn't.
I liked it, OK. I was a fan,
you know, I at the end of it,
I was, I was a fan of all the
things that you're predicting.
So we don't have snow in
the forecast just yet.
But coming up, we'll talk about
the pattern toward Christmas,
which is a little interesting.
I'll just put it that way.
Interesting is that word.
Stick around for it.