JACKIE: GRADY TRIMBLE, THANK YOU
SO MUCH.
HERE NOW, REAL ESTATE BROKER
KIRSTEN JORDAN.
ALWAYS GREAT TO SEE YOU.
SO WE LOOK AT THE 30-YEAR FIXED,
RIGHT?
HEADING TOWARDS 7%, AND WE THINK
JEROME POWELL IS RAISING RATES,
AND HIS GOING TO KILL THE REAL
ESTATE MARKET, AT LEAST SLOW IT
DOWN, AND YOU SAY THERE’S, LOOK
E -- LIKE, A LITTLE BIT OF A
BALANCE THERE.
YES, THINGS ARE GOING TO BE
SLOWER, BUT NOT EVERYBODY’S
DROPPING OUT.
>> NO, NOT EVERYBODY’S DROPPING
OUT.
WHAT WE’RE REALLY SEEING IS THAT
BUYERS ARE SAYING, OKAY, IF
THERE’S NOT ENOUGH NEW SUPPLY
COMING INTO MY MARKET, I’M
EITHER GOING TO HAVE TO ADJUST
THE PRICE POINT THAT I WAS
INITIALLY READY TO BUY BECAUSE A
LOT OF BUYERS HAVE BEEN IN THE
MARKET FOR A LITTLE WHILE AND
THEY KEEP THINKING THAT PRICES
ARE GOING TO COME DOWN, AND THEY
DON’T COME DOWN FAST ENOUGH,
THEY DEBT DISCOURAGED AS RATES
GO HIGHER, SO IT’S THE SUPPLY
COMING, PRICES DOWN JUST ENOUGH
SO THAT BUYERS SAY, HEY, I’M
GOING TO COME UP WITH ANOTHER
ALTERNATIVE MORTGAGE STRUCTURE
BECAUSE AS YOU KNOW, THERE’S
OTHER KINDS OF --
JACKIE: THERE ARE OTHER WAYS TO
DO IT, ABSOLUTELY.
AND YOU WERE MENTIONING WHILE WE
WERE TALKING DURING THE BREAK
THAT IT REALLY COMES DOWN TO
YOUR MONTHLY PAYMENT, RIGHT?
SO IF THE BANK IS GOING TO LOOK
AT THE MILLION DOLLAR HOUSE,
LET’S SAY, THAT YOU WANTED TO
BUY, YOUR PAYMENT’S GOING TO BE
HIGHER BECAUSE THE RATES ARE
HIGHER, AND SO IF YOU CAN OR
CANNOT AFFORD THAT ON YOUR
SALARY, THEY’RE GOING TO DING
YOU.
BUT THAT PERSON MAY SAY, WELL,
I’LL JUST ADJUST MY EXPECTATIONS
AND PERHAPS BUY A CHEAPER HOME
IF THAT MILLION DOLLAR HOME
PRICE DOESN’T COME DOWN TO WHERE
I NEED IT TO BE.
>> EXACTLY.
AND WE’RE DEFINITELY SEEING
BUYERS ALSO LOOK AT OTHER
ALTERNATIVE FINANCING.
THEY’RE LOOKING AT LEVERAGING
AGAINST OTHER KINDS OF ASSETS,
MAYBE THEY’RE DOING A PRIVATE
MORTGAGE WITH FAMILY MEMBERS,
MAYBE THEY’RE GOING TO PUT DOWN
A LITTLE BIT MORE AS A GIFT FROM
SOMEONE.
WAYS THAT THEY CAN FIND A WAY TO
FINANCE THAT HOME OR
INTEREST-ONLY MORTGAGES,
ADJUSTABLE RATE MORTGAGES --
JACK: GOT IN TROUBLE LAST TIME.
>> PEOPLE REALLY ARE STRONGER
BORROWERS.
LAST TIME IT WAS LENDING OBOE
BORROWERS THAT WEREN’T
QUALIFIED.
NOW EVERYBODY THAT OWNS OR MOST
PEOPLE THAT OWN ARE QUALIFIED
BORROWERS, SO THEY’RE SITTING
THERE SAYING, HEY, IF THINGS
AREN’T INTERESTING, I’M NOT
GOING TO MOVE AND SELL BECAUSE
WHAT AM I GOING TO GET NEXT FOR
A RATE?
JACKIE: RIGHT.
THE BANKS DEFINITELY ARE DOING
MORE DUE DILIGENCE, SO THAT IS A
GOOD THING.
HAVING SAID THAT, IF YOU ARE
GETTING A MORTGAGE FROM A FAMILY
MEMBER OR YOU HAPPEN TO BE LUCKY
ENOUGH TO BE AN ALL-CASH BUYER,
THAN YOU WAIT FOR THE PRICES TO
COME DOWN EVEN MORE, AND YOU GET
A STEAL.
>> YOU WILL, BUT I THINK PRICES
AREN’T GOING TO COME DOWN AS
MUCH IN MARKETS THAT DIDN’T SEE
THE INCREDIBLE APPRECIATION.
THE MARKETS THAT SAW MAYBE 5-10%
OF APPRECIATION ACROSS THE
BOARD, THOSE MARKETS, HOW MUCH
CAN THEY REALLY COME DOWN
WHEREAS, YES, THE MARKETS THAT
SAW 30 AND 40% APPRECIATION,
THOSE MARKETS, THERE’S GOING TO
BE SOME DEALS, FOR SURE.
JACKIE: BUT EVEN IN SOME OF
THOSE MARKETS THAT WE SAW THIS
BOOM, YOU KNOW, FOR EXAMPLE,
FLORIDA, RIGHT?
PRICES HAD DOUBLED IN SOME
CASES.
I HAVE FRIENDS WHO TELL ME IT’S
VERY, VERY DIFFICULT TO GET INTO
THE MARKET WHEREAS JUST A COUPLE
OF YEARS AGO THEY WERE GIVING
STUFF AWAY.
HAVING SAID THAT, I FEEL LIKE
THERE’S THIS NEW VIEW CHEN IT
WOMAN -- WHEN IT COMES TO
FLORIDA.
PEOPLE CAN WORK REMOTELY, SO
THIS WHOLE FLORIDA, LIVING
SOMEWHERE ELSE THING, PERHAPS
LIVING FULL TIME AND NOT PAYING
STATE INCOME TAX, THAT’S HERE TO
STAY.
>> EXACTLY.
JACKIE: RIGHT?
>> YES.
THAT WAS A HUGE SHIFT.
I THINK THE PLACES WE’RE
THINKING ARE, LIKE, PHOENIX,
ARIZONA.
WE’RE SEEING PARTS OF TEXAS THAT
WE’RE SEEING ESPECIALLY, FOR
EXAMPLE, AUSTIN,, WHICH SAW I
THINK IN SOME CASES SOME MARKETS
WERE SEEING MORE THAN 50% OF,
YOU KNOW, APPRECIATION OF HOMES,
OF LUXURY HOMES.
SO THOSE MARKETS IT’LL BE,
THAT’LL BE QUESTIONABLE.
TEXAS, OF COURSE, ANOTHER
TAX-FRIENDLY STATE, SO MAYBE FOR
THEM THAT WILL BE BETTER OVER
TIME.
BUT I’M TALKING TO AGENTS DOWN
THERE, AND THEY’RE SAYING THINGS
ARE REALLY SLOW.
JACKIE: YEAH, AND I TALK TO A
LOT OF PEOPLE WHO DID MOVE
ELSEWHERE, AND THEY’RE ITCHING
TO COME BACK NOW TOO.
PEOPLE DID THAT DURING THE PAN
’EM DOIC BECAUSE THEY WANTED
MORE SPACE AND ACCESS TO
DIFFERENT THINGS, AND AND NOW,
YOU KNOW, WE’RE OUT OF PANDEMIC,
WE HAVE BEEN, AND PEOPLE WANT
THEIR OLD LIVES BACK TOO.
>> OH, AND ESPECIALLY YOUNG
PEOPLE.
THEY WANT TO BE IN CITIES AND
SEEING THEIR FRIENDS.
I GUESS YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT
BEFORE ABOUT DATING GETTING A
LITTLE BIT CHEAPER OR PEOPLE
GETTING CHEAPER ABOUT DATING,
BUT I THINK PEOPLE WANT TO BE IN
IS CITIES MEETING UP AND HAVING
FUN AND GETTING OUT THERE.
JACKIE: RIGHT.
HAVING SAID THAT, LOOKING ACROSS
THE BOARD IN YOUR STUDIES, WHAT
DO YOU THINK IS SORT OF ONE OF
THE BETTER VALUE MARKETS RIGHT
NOW?
>> WELL, NEW YORK CITY, I THINK,
IS A VALUE MARKET BECAUSE OF THE
FACT THAT THERE IS ALWAYS,
THERE’S ALWAYS SOMETHING THAT
YOU CAN BUY IN ONE OF THE
BOROUGHS.
JACKIE: RIGHT.
>> THERE IS CONSTANT DEMAND, AND
PEOPLE ARE STILL MOVING HERE.
JACKIE: PRICES HAVE COME DOWN,
BUT THEY’RE NOT COMING DOWN HERE
>> NO, EXACTLY, THEY AREN’T.
[LAUGHTER]