Kevin McCarthy's path to becoming speaker
is even more complicated today,
leading some Republicans to consider
what they call the doomsday scenario.
By that,
they mean a Plan B
if it becomes clear McCarthy cannot win.
McCarthy, though, tells CNN, quote,
I'll never leave,
vowing to get the 218 votes
he needs to be speaker.
This as a group of Republicans
lay out a list of demands
they want McCarthy to meet
anyone to meet in order
to get their votes.
CNN's Melody's
unknown I keeping
track of this
live for us up on Capitol Hill.
Mel, the math problem persists.
It persists.
And Kevin
McCarthy has a lot of work to do.
So in addition
to those five House
Republicans that have already vowed
to publicly oppose Kevin
McCarthy on House floor.
Now we have this group of seven
new Republicans
who are laying out their conditions
in order to win their speaker vote,
even though they don't name
Kevin McCarthy by name.
It is very clear
that this is directly, squarely at him.
And some of their demands include
a promise to put more conservatives
on key committees,
a promise of leadership
not to play in primaries,
and a promise
to restore this process
that would allow any single member
to force a vote
on deposing the sitting speaker.
That is something that Kevin McCarthy
has been adamantly against.
But Manu Raju and I are hearing
that McCarthy might be willing
to negotiate
as he is struggling
to get the two 18 votes for speaker.
And he is certainly in negotiating mode
right now.
Take a listen to what he said
on Fox News. Earlier today.
I think what's happening right now
is negotiations
that people want to see certain changes
and we're working through that
and we'll get there.
And if we can't come together,
on that opening day,
no investigations,
no subpoenas, no repealing.
87,000 IRS agents,
no becoming energy independent,
no securing the border
I think that's more important
than sitting
and squabbling with one another.
Now, even though McCarthy and
his allies are so confident
that he can get to 18 votes
on the first round,
some Republicans
are starting to quietly game out
what the next steps would be
if they go into multiple ballots.
That's something that hasn't happened
since 1923.
You have some Republicans
vowing to keep fighting it out
but other Republicans are now vowing
that they're willing to work
with Democrats and potentially elect
a candidate
who would be a more Republican,
a bipartisan consensus speaker.
So it's still a longshot idea,
but the fact that it's
even being discussed
really shows the uncertainty
hanging over the speaker's race John.
While volatility continues, Melanie said
don't appreciate
taking that conversation off
from Capitol Hill.
Let's bring the conversation in the room.
Not since 1923 has a speaker's race gone
to multiple ballots.
Kevin McCarthy is on Fox
about every other hour,
which is part of his negotiation.
I mean, it's just the way it is
and that's where you go.
If you want to speak to his crowd,
as Mel
just noted, willing to negotiate
even essentially his authority,
meaning any one member could raise up
any day,
twice a day
if you feel like it
and say,
let's have a vote
to depose the speaker,
that that's he's negotiating.
You would have to argue
from a position of weakness, right?
Yeah.
I mean, it's clear that he does
not have the votes
and it's really not clear
if he will have the votes come January.
I mean, it's also,
I think, notable
that this is all happening
after they won the House, albeit
not by the margins that they wanted.
But he traveled the country.
He raised a lot of money,
and yet he still does not have the votes.
And so it's clear
that he's
meeting with hard conservatives
and that he's going to
have to make concessions.
But the question of whether he
he gives them
this ask
about the motion to vacate, where
essentially it challenges of authority
and this is what happened with
Speaker Boehner,
where any single member
could challenge his authority.
He has said that's a red line for him.
But the fact that
there are still these discussions, that
that's still a key demand,
I think, is a storyline
that we're going to watch play out.
And I said he's negotiating
for a position of weakness
and yet he's the strongest candidate.
He has way more votes than anybody else,
which has to be said.
He's closer to to 18
or whatever it takes.
If there's a few parliamentary
or people go missing for a day
and you lower the count.
But all the Democrats
are going to show up.
All the Democrats are going to show up
because they sense this Republican
unpredictability and weakness.
And so they're got to.
So Don Bacon,
who is a more centrist
Republican from Nebraska,
who's on Team
McCarthy, says to the hard liners,
if you keep messing with us,
maybe we do have
to come up with a Plan B,
but it won't you won't like it
Well,
I've been
public that
if a small group refuses to play ball
and be part of the team,
that will work across the aisle
to find an agreeable Republican
but we we'll get there.
Yeah.
You covered Capitol Hill for a long time.
Again you've got to go back to 1923
to go multiple ballots
but just the idea that so
there you have a centrist Republican
saying okay
hard liners
keep messing with us
and we'll work with the Democrats really.
I mean what other what other opportunity
do they have
what other choice
would they have
if Kevin McCarthy can't get
all of the votes.
Now you could argue that
maybe it could be a Steve Scalise
his number two
who has been very notably quiet
during all of this.
Very notably quiet.
You could also argue
maybe that an Elise Stefanik
could do it,
although with Donald Trump
her biggest benefactor
right now, political supporter
right now in a very weak position.
Unclear if that would happen.
We have to remember
that unlike every other leadership
position,
the speaker of the House
is a constitutional one,
which means that the votes
we're talking about happen on the floor
and they happen
among every single member.
It's not just a party vote.
So that's why the threat of
okay will bring in
a more moderate Republican
that we can get Democratic votes for.
Isn't that far fetched
if McCarthy goes down
and I mean, Nancy Pelosi navigated this,
it was messy at times,
but she was able to navigate
for two years, a very narrow majority
the question is, can Kevin
McCarthy do that
when he's not yet the leader?
And some of these are congressmen
elect or congresswomen elect
who just won by the promise
of a first year of 77
who say we want concessions,
they want this.
They say they want this of anyone
who would be speaker.
You know, as I said, no leadership
involved in the primaries restoring
so you could vacate the chair.
More conservatives on key committees.
72 hours to read a bill before it votes.
So there's those seven demanding that.
And that's part of their demands
right there.
And then you have five more
who have said we will not vote
for Kevin McCarthy under
any circumstances.
Now there's one or two of them,
and they're the team
McCarthy thinks they can get,
possibly with negotiations.
Maybe it's a committee assignment,
maybe it's some other concession,
but that's 12.
That's 12
for a guy who can only lose three
or four. Yeah.
And it's not just the concessions,
but also just the different ways
that he's already trying to incentivize
the Republicans to come together here.
That includes floating out.
Look, we're
we have a plan
to bring Ali, my caucus, the Homeland
Security Secretary to Congress
that happens more effectively
if we're unified here
and also includes establishing
a committee
to focus on competing with China,
talking about also kicking Democratic
lawmakers off of committees
Already, we're starting
to see in these negotiations
real concessions here and incentives
that also could have a real impact
on the congressional outlook
in the months to come.
His problem, his problem
there is any Republican can promise that
once they have the power,
any Republicans can do those things.
Yeah.
When he talks about, you know, cutting
spending or doing things at the border,
you have a Democratic president
the Democratic Senate Republicans can
they can shut down the government
if they want.
They can hold lines if they want,
but they can't do anything either.
I mean, yes, they can say, Mr.
President, you can't do much,
but nor can
the Republicans on the policy stuff.
He doesn't have that long of a leash
to promise things.
Yeah.
I mean,
you think it is that there's gridlock
now, actually,
given what we've seen over the over
the past couple of months, it's
relatively speaking to where
we've been over the past ten years.
It hasn't been as bad.
I mean, grinding halt is I
we would have to describe Congress
that happens.