A superpower or even a global superpower might be China's goal by the middle of this century.
In other words, that is the meaning of Xi Jinping's second "centennial goal":
to become an "eloquent speaker, a strong leader,
a civilised country, and a harmonious society for the whole world by 2035".
In order to qualify for superpower status,
one must possess preeminent military power and be able to project that power globally
or broaden it to encompass economic, political, cultural,
and intelligence power, as well as the ability to shape international governance.
The key is to have the long-term financial resources to ensure this.
Perhaps no other country has created a bigger illusion of power in the 21st century than China.
China is being portrayed as a Great Power when you read the comments of
Chinese commentators or Western analysts. China's economy grew dramatically in the
1980s and 1990s, and today it is the second largest economy in the world.
Throughout the past two decades, China has also demonstrated its strategic expansion.
A few decades down the road, some claim China will surpass the United States of America as
the world's most powerful nation. Although China has gained enormous
momentum over the past 3-4 decades, it is on track to lose much of it.
Whether a nation is strong or weak, it loses an essential
foundation. China's population is declining. The one-child policy, inflated statistics,
and lower fertility rates all point to a major decline in China's population growth.
The Chinese population will begin to decline by 2035 and will lag behind the
US in all demographic metrics. Furthermore, the problem of
population is not the only one. The current Chinese President
is squeezing the pockets of all the wealthy, in addition to picking fights with other world
powers and isolating China. His policies are contributing to the decline of China.
People have trouble trusting things like China's 'official' statistics.
In fact, you are unlikely to be able to trust Chinese numbers at all.
In every successive census, for instance, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
has inflated the number of Chinese residents. The population numbers of a country with a large
population like China may be misleading. In fairness, the Chinese population
is ageing because of the CCP's disastrous family planning policies.
China's economic growth objectives cannot be met anytime soon if there are not enough young people.
In fact, the Chinese youth is already feeling demotivated under Jinping’s rule
and China is staring right into a downward trajectory in terms of economic growth.
It is expected that China's decline will begin in 2035.
On all demographic and economic metrics,
the Communist nation will lag behind the US at this time.
During this period, Jinping is either forced out of politics or will leave by his own volition.
Of course, China's biggest concern is the decline in birth rates and ageing population.
Despite the official claim that China is home to 1.41 billion people,
its actual population is likely to be 115 million fewer than the official number.
The population size of China would thus be less than India's.
Throughout the years, China's population figures have been "adjusted."
A simple example is the average fertility rates from 1994 to 2018.
China's population control authority refused to believe the numbers, despite the average
fertility rate being 1.36 during this period. Since these numbers did not match Xi Jinping's
political aims, the rate had to be adjusted to 1.6-1.8.
A few policies followed after the 2020 census raised suspicions,
even though the country's population had reached its expected level of 1,41 billion.
The three-child policy, for example, has been implemented in China.
Additionally, President Xi Jinping announced plans to boost fertility in the country.
In any case, Jinping's persona does not convince young Chinese couples.
China has developed a culture where couples prefer to stay
childless and avoid financial burdens because of the one-child policy.
As a result, China's demographics are under even more pressure.
As a result of Xi Jinping's actions, China's superpower dream is evaporating faster than ever.
Investing in the private sector and industrialisation
fueled China's impressive growth. But now, with a paranoid Jinping in charge,
China's private sector is being destroyed by brainless crackdowns against tech giants like
Alibaba, Tencent, EduTech companies, as well as for-profit tutoring and private English tutors.
As a result of his trade wars with Australia, China's steel
industry has also been ravaged by his policies. Today, Xi Jinping is looking to reintroduce China
back to the Maoist era by instituting a hard-line Communist policy of robbing and looting the rich
and distributing wealth amongst the poor. Youth in China are getting hopeless and lazy.
A lying down campaign has even been launched. The millennial generation in China basically
advocates doing nothing and staying in bed. CCP's labor market strategy is based on China's devotion
to hard work as a means of prosperity, a notion that forms the basis for its inhumane practices.
There is concern among the Chinese youth that they may not perform better than the older
generations as they have opened up to the West. Chinese millennials are able to understand
how the CCP has deceived them, despite Xi Jinping's efforts to cut ties with the West.
Aside from Jinping's incompetence, there are other factors at play.
Despite China's rapid growth, its innovation and research sectors have not developed yet.
Even with the best of intentions, its innovation cannot be boosted. IP theft
from the West continues to be its mainstay. Nevertheless, the developed world isn't
prepared to let China take over their intellectual property.
In the absence of IP theft, China's industrial sector will grind to a halt.
One example is the defense sector in China. It produces low-grade military equipment
and weapons systems and the manufacturing industry is in shambles.
As China's native technology is several generations behind Western technology,
it will simply go into free fall when it loses access to foreign technology.
As a giant, China has grown enormously.
Neither is it a well-organized system, nor are its fundamentals in place.
In a decade and a half, all of China's woes will come to a head.
China's might is being discussed a lot right now, but a few years from now,
you will start to hear about its sudden decline. China's current costs are minimal compared
to the ones it would have to bear in the future if it became a superpower.
The nation's defense budget is far less than America's. Repression and stability
are regarded as much more costly domestically than the budget of the People's Liberation Army.
A population of 1.4 billion requires an adequate social security system.
Environmental remediation is incredibly expensive.
Assuming that the US does not grow until 2049, China's GDP would need to increase by nearly 6%
each year to match the United States' per capita income in 2018.
Empirical experience shows that such smooth growth is impossible.
Their frustration may lead to unrest and instability.
Another chief concern besides demographics relates to a looming water crisis in 12 northern provinces
that account for 41 % of China's population,
38 % of the country's agriculture, 46 % of its industry, and 50 % of its power generation.
It is not possible to avoid substantial economic,
social, or political displacement by water transfers or desalination.
Massive changes in agriculture, industry,
and people's lifestyle are needed, if it is not already too late.
Do you think A “triumphant” China that grows, prospers and gains influence until
it matches or exceeds the United States in most measures of power Will exist?
What is the secret to how an "ascendant" China can cope with the internal turmoil,
water shortages and a slowing economy and still become Asia's dominant power?
When a "stagnant" China fails to tackle poverty, environmental degradation, and external crises,
what will be the result?
Well, China might defeat itself in the stagnant possibility,
as many established world powers do to a certain extent.
Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below.
Also like, share and subscribe to our channel,
thanks for watching and see you in the next video.