Transcriber: Angelina Zhou Reviewer: David DeRuwe
Regardless of how long you’ve lived on the coast
or whether you’ve personally experienced the impacts of a hurricane,
most of us have an idea of what’s happening with these storms
based on news media and headlines alone.
Apparently, these killer storms have become stronger
and more frequent than ever before as a result of climate change.
And if you're anything like me,
these headlines will leave you feeling powerless,
as if each of our coastal communities, precariously poised in the line of fire,
will inevitably fall to the mercy of these uncontrollable storms.
If I tell you, with these headlines and the popular narrative in mind,
that hurricanes making landfall along the US coast
have become stronger and more frequent than ever before,
undoubtedly many of you would nod your head in agreement.
I know I would have when I began working as a community organizer in 2018
at a coastal conservation nonprofit
where I was tasked with helping communities implement policies
and solutions to become more resilient and adapt to sea level rise.
But what if I tell you that we’ve got it wrong?
OK, or rather, that we need to take a hard look
at the facts before perpetuating this narrative.
When I began working as a community organizer,
I imagined explaining the issues of sea level rise
and storm surge to fellow coastal community members would be simple.
Even if you haven’t lived through a recent hurricane season,
the headlines warning of more frequent
and stronger storms hitting our coast are pretty inescapable.
But like any good advocate, I sought out the data to support my claim.
This led me to the historical data archives
of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA.
I anticipated gathering the data I needed,
running a few simple tests, and verifying what we all already know:
Hurricanes making landfall on the US coast have become stronger
and more frequent throughout the 20th and 21st centuries.
And then I got my results back, and I was confused.
If we set aside global trends and future projections
and we focus just on what we’ve experienced here in the US,
the historical data regarding landfall, hurricane frequency, and category
does not align with what the popular narrative would have us believe.
According to the historic data,
there has not yet been a statistically significant increase
in the number of hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. coast.
Here you see bars representing
the number of hurricanes per decade to make landfall on our coast,
and we pretty clearly see a cyclical trend,
but not one of increasing frequency.
The historical data also does not show
that we have already had a statistically significant increase
in the number of major hurricanes making landfall on our coast,
meaning category three through five.
Here, the red line illustrates
the portion of storms in each decade to reach major hurricane status.
And again, we don't have a statistically significant increase or any clear trend.
What we do see in looking at the historic data of landfall hurricanes
is there has been an undeniable and significant increase
in the cost of hurricanes since the 20th century,
even with adjusting for inflation.
Here, you see the costliest hurricanes in US history over time
with each hurricane represented by a dot.
And as we move along the X axis forward in time,
there’s a visible, increasing trend.
Another way to look at this is by decade.
Here you see bars representing the number of hurricanes per decade
to be listed on NOAA’s ranking of costliest hurricanes in U.S. history.
And again, we see an increasing trend.
But if we know that there has not yet been a statistically significant increase
in the number of hurricanes making landfall,
and there has not been a statistically significant increase
in the number of major hurricanes making landfall on our coast,
then how do we explain this sudden and significant increase
in the cost of hurricanes since the 20th century?
The biggest factor driving up the cost of these storms
and making hurricanes more severe is arguably coastal development.
In the same timeframe that we saw this increase in the cost of storms,
over 4 million acres of coastal land was converted
to accommodate for population growth,
and over half a million acres of coastal wetlands were lost,
primarily to development and urbanization.
Just look at our own coasts. The rate of urbanization is astonishing.
Modeling from the University of Georgia shows that between 1974 and 2008,
we set a pace to develop our coast by 2050
at a rate seven times faster than population growth.
We have transformed our coast
into a self-imposed billion-dollar risk
by investing in the development of private property,
public infrastructure, and community services
on some of the most vulnerable real estate in the country.
According to NOAA, coastal land is already twice as likely to be developed
than land in other regions of the US,
and the rate at which this development occurs
is significantly faster than anywhere else.
So ...
what is the risk, and how do we get the narrative right?
Well using standard deviation, we can measure risk.
In investments, the more your losses and gains deviate from the mean,
the greater the risk.
If we apply the same type of analysis to the cost of hurricanes in our history,
we see outliers in recent years indicate an increased risk.
Specifically, the cost of hurricanes since the 21st century began
deviate significantly from the historic mean,
indicating that our investments in coastal communities are increasingly at risk.
But despite what the popular narrative and the headlines would have us believe,
this risk is not the result of factors beyond our control,
like more hurricanes or more major hurricanes making landfall on our coast.
Rather, this increased risk
is the result of increased cost, driven by coastal development.
That is why getting the narrative right matters.
If we continue to let the headlines overwhelm the conversation
and frame this problem as a result of factors beyond our control,
we will inevitably forfeit prospective solutions to the problem.
So often we succumb to feeling powerless against overwhelming global issues
like climate change and extreme weather events.
And while we cannot control the weather,
we can control where and how we develop our coasts.
Fortunately, we already have the most important tool to begin doing this,
and it doesn’t require any state-of-the-art technology
or expensive certification.
It’s civic engagement.
I'm often asked, how can one person make a difference for our coast?
And yes, the global issues of climate change
and sea level rise seem too insurmountable for any one person.
But my answer is actually quite simple.
Engage in your local land use decision-making process
and demand sustainable zoning and planning for your community.
Thank you.
(Applause)