THE WOODROW WILSON CENTER.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR JOINING
US TONIGHT.
WHAT DID YOU MAKE OF THE
ASSESSMENT OF LETTER MERE PUTIN,
AT THE INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
TESTIMONY TODAY THAT WE JUST
HEARD, ABOUT EVEN THOUGH HE IS
TALKING ABOUT NUCLEAR WEAPONS
IN THIS WAY, HIS ACTIONS DO NOT
INDICATE ANY ACTUAL CHANGE.
>> THE BIG QUESTION, LAWRENCE,
WAS WHETHER THIS WAS AN EPIC
BLUFF, WHETHER IT REFLECTED
RUSHES WEAKNESS RATHER THAN ITS
STRENGTH.
BUT THE CHALLENGE FOR PUTIN
RIGHT NOW IS THAT HE IS NOT
DOING WELL IN UKRAINE AND, IF
HE IS GOING TO TRY TO SEIZE THE
COUNTRY, THE DANGEROUS HE IS
GOING TO TRY THINGS THAT ARE
UNCONVENTIONAL, UNEXPECTED AS
HIS INVASION WAS.
THE WORLD HAS BEEN MUCH SAFER
OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS AS A
NUMBER OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS
DECLINED BY 80%.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT RUSSIA
TODAY HAS MORE NUCLEAR WEAPONS
THAN ANY OTHER COUNTRY.
6000 OF THEM, OF THE 13,000 ON
EARTH.
CONTROLLED BY NINE DIFFERENT
COUNTRIES.
GIVEN THAT PUTIN HAS BEEN
IRRATIONAL, THERE'S A LOT OF
DISCUSSION IN WASHINGTON ABOUT
WHATEVER?
WHATEVER THE KIND OF THING WE
NEVER THOUGHT WAS IMAGINABLE
AGAIN BECAUSE OF MUTUAL
DETERRENCE, ACTUALLY COULD BE
ON THE TABLE AGAIN.
SO THAT'S PUT THE SUBJECT OF
THE BOMB BACK INTO THE KIND OF
LEXICON, THE DIALOGUE, THE
DEBATE, ABOUT SECURING, NOT
ONLY AMERICA'S SECURITY, BUT
SECURING THE POSITION OF THE
WEST AGAINST A MAN WHO HAS
DEFIED THE WORLD IN TERMS OF
HIS AGGRESSION.
>> IT'S SCENES, BUT LEAVES
PRESIDENT BIDEN AS THE FIRST
PRESIDENT POSSIBLY SINCE
PRESIDENT KENNEDY WHO HAS TO
NOW SERIOUSLY CONSIDER THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME KIND OF
NUCLEAR --
SOME KIND OF NUCLEAR
POSSIBILITY WITH RUSSIA.
AND I SAY PRESIDENT KENNEDY
BECAUSE, AFTER THE CUBAN
MISSILE CRISIS WHERE THERE WAS
A SUCCESSFUL OUTCOME, AND THAT
OUTCOME WAS BASED ON THE MUTUAL
BELIEF IN MUTUALLY ASSURED
DESTRUCTION.
IT SEEMED THAT, IT FELT LIKE,
FROM THE OUTSIDE, THAT THE
LESSON WAS LEARNED AND THE
LEADERS OF EACH COUNTRY KNEW
THEY COULD NEVER LET IT COME
THAT CLOSE AGAIN.
>> ABSOLUTELY.
AND I THINK THAT'S WHAT HAS
KIND OF ELECTRIFIED THE FOREIGN
POLICY DEBATE ABOUT WHERE IS
RUSSIA HEADED, WET MINDED TRY.
NOW, THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION
HAS RESPONDED VERY COOLLY TO
THIS.
IT'S NOT TAKEN RUSHES BAIT.
OFFICIALS HAVE COME OUT AND
SAID THAT THE UNITED STATES
VERY COMFORTABLE AND VERY
SECURE IN ITS NUCLEAR POSTURE.
AND I THINK IT'S LOWERED SOME
OF THE TEMPERATURE AND THE KIND
OF EARLY HYSTERIA ABOUT WOULD
MIGHT RUSSIA DO.
THE FACT IS, THIS IS BACK ON
THE TABLE, AND THE TIME THAT
THE NUCLEAR ORDER IN GENERAL
AROUND THE WORLD IS IN THE
WORDS OF THE ARMS CASTRO
ASSOCIATION, AND CHAOS, YOU
HAVE MANY OF THE ARMS CONTROL
TREATIES THAT WILL HAVE EITHER
BEEN ABANDONED OR TWO THIRDS.
YOU HAVE CHINA IN WHAT THE
INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY
ESTIMATES TO BE IN A RACE TO
GET UP TO 1000 NUCLEAR BOMBS BY
THE YEAR 2030.
INDIA AND PACK AND STUN ARE IN
AN ARMS RACE, THERE IN THE
PRECIPICE OF WEATHER KNOWING
WHETHER IRAN WILL MOVE ON THE
PROGRAM.
SO THERE'S A LOT OF CONCERN,
NOT JUST ABOUT RUSSIA AND WHAT
PUTIN ARE THREATENING OR WHAT
KIND OF ALARM BELLS THEY ARE
BRINGING, IT'S REALLY ABOUT THE
ISSUE OF NUCLEAR ARMS IN
GENERAL.
WHICH, NOT A LOT OF AMERICANS
ARE PAID ATTENTION TO BECAUSE