- Morning Trainiacs, this has been a heck
of an endurance adventure
that we've gone on over the course of 2020.
Well, as we like to do at the end of the year,
we always wanna look back, but more than anything,
take all of the lessons that we've learned and look forward.
So at the end of the year,
I like to do a few videos about what I've learned,
and a little bit more fun, especially after this year,
'cause looking back on 2020 is not a blast.
Wanna look forward to what we can expect in 2021.
Of course, a lot of what I'm gonna say here
is gonna be just a total guess,
but this is my best estimate of what I think might happen
that we could possibly look forward to
if things go well and we don't go back into lockdown
and everything goes well all around the world.
But let's look at things
from a glass is half full kind of perspective, shall we?
I think the first thing that we can look forward to
is a return to racing.
Is that racing going to look exactly like it did
before this year?
Probably not, but I really do believe
that companies aren't going to be able to sustain themselves
if they don't return to racing in some way, shape or form.
I think that's probably gonna mean
that we end up getting stretched out
immensely over the course and around the transition area.
I think that's gonna mean maybe several day races,
or races that are staged throughout a day
instead of like, "Boom,
2,000 people, all together, now you go."
I don't think that's gonna happen anytime soon,
but I am looking forward to racing return.
We saw little glimmers of it this year
and we saw ways that it could possibly happen
in controlled environments, like a Challenge Daytona,
and even if just the grassroots races that are smaller
and more controlled and not as chaotic come back,
it's still racing.
And having some form of racing back,
I think is a great thing,
and I think it is definitely going to come back.
So when people start saying, "Well, should I start training?
"I can't set myself up for another let down like in 2020,"
I would say, by all means,
start racing the same way that you were going to last year,
but just expect
that maybe the races are going to be different,
and you might have to be a little bit more fluid
about what race it's going to be that you enter.
The second thing that I think we can expect to see
is a mass exodus of people doing YouTube content,
podcasts, virtual races.
There was a lot of noise
where a lot of people had extra time
so they started a YouTube channel,
so they started a podcast.
We've already seen
that there've been huge number of podcasts
that have already shut down,
a huge number of YouTube channels that realize that,
"I'm still 1,500 videos in and it ain't easy."
And yeah, virtual races came in
and they were a massive success
but at the same time,
the industry isn't set up for this longterm.
It's been kind of this patchwork
of all these different companies, trying to keep busy,
trying to put out content,
trying to put on races in some way, shape or form,
when they're able to go back to their existing businesses
with their existing infrastructure,
you're going to see companies go back to what they know,
and have known for decades in some cases.
So I think we're gonna see a change.
Sure, some of the YouTube channels are gonna stay,
some of the podcasts are gonna stay,
some of the virtual races are gonna stay,
and these are great things for the industry,
but I don't think I think it's going to look at all similar
to what it looked like this year.
Next, as racing comes back,
one of the big stories that happened this year,
one of the only stories, was the PTO,
the Professional Triathletes Organisation,
which first came on the scene
making an attempt to try to purchase Ironman.
Then over the course of 2020,
they were constantly in the news
because they funded all kinds of races.
Then they put over a million dollars up in prize money
for Challenge Daytona, which was a massive success.
But I think this is going to be the year
that PTO has to prove
if they are going to be a business or not.
You might be saying,
"Wasn't that Challenge Daytona race
"in the broadcast a massive success?"
Yes, it absolutely was,
but we did a podcast with Bill Christy,
the CEO of challenge North America
that you can go listen to,
where he outlines that PTO is essentially a lead sponsor,
they were co-producer of the race.
But in my knowledge of how it works,
the TV rights, the advertising dollars,
that are going to come
from Challenge North America holding successful races
and expanding beyond Challenge Daytona,
is going to stay with Challenge North America
and the NASCAR family,
which is putting on Challenge North America.
So while the PTO,
yes, they had a massive amount of success
from Challenge Daytona
and they got a huge amount of support this year,
they still haven't really shown
what their business model is.
Their business model is,
get a whole bunch of new eyeballs to the sport,
which was successful in the NASCAR coverage format
for Challenge North America,
but where the dollars start coming to PTO
still kind of remains to be seen.
I'm sure when this is seen and Sam, the CEO of PTO,
or Jane, the marketing person, or Charles, the chairman,
whoever it is, wants to talk about it,
we'll get you back on the podcast
because I think change does need to happen in the sport.
I am very supportive that change needs to happen,
and anyone who's doing that I wanna be supportive of,
but I still wanna wait and see
what that business model is going to be.
I think this year is probably gonna be the year
that we see, one way or another,
what that business turns into,
because they can't just keep pumping money into the sport
without any sort of return,
at least I don't think so.
Then let's get on to some racing.
Let's assume that the Olympics does happen,
which it sure seems like it's going to.
I am going to, as far out as I have ever done,
make a couple of calls on the athletes to start watching
over the course of 2021,
to keep an eye on how they're going to do
and get a sense of how the Olympic games
is going to unfold in triathlon.
On the men's side, I'm very biased
because I've done a bunch of training
and we did a podcast with Tyler Mislawchuk,
who won the Tokyo test event last year,
and if there's ever been an athlete
that was well designed for a course, it's Tyler.
He's light, he does well in heat,
he's a good swimmer, and he's won the event,
so he's proven that the course is well suited to him.
I think the athletes that we need to look at
are similar, really fast runners,
'cause that's what the ITU game is,
but also athletes who are small, who are slight,
because we know it's going to be hot.
So I think we can look at athletes like Vincent Luis,
Henry Schumann, maybe Gustave Iden,
but he's never really been in that very front pack,
so that's always been why we've seen him do really well
at the longer distance races
and not as well on the ITU circuit.
But if he can make that front pack,
he's light, he's small and he can run really well.
On the women's side, this is much more of a crapshoot
because women's races in ITU
tend to go back and forth quite a bit.
I think we just have to look at the top three
that are currently in the world,
Flora Duffy has proven that she knows how to win
as long as she stays healthy,
Katie Zaferes has been a dominant force
and very, very consistent,
so you know she's going to be in the running,
and then Georgia Taylor-Brown has been
one of the most consistent, top performing female athletes
on the ITU circuit.
And then looking at everyone's favorite event of the year,
which we will hopefully get to go back to
because I really missed it this year,
is the Ironman World Championships in Kona.
My call here on the men's side,
I'm gonna call Jan Frodeno because a couple of years ago,
I made the statement that I believe that
as long as Jan Frodeno continues to step up to start lines,
he will win.
He's one of the only athletes
who is one of the best swimmers in the field,
one of the best bikers in the field
and one of the best runners in the field.
I believe that he will only continue
to step up to start lines
as long as he continues to think that he can win races.
And we've seen that as long as he steps up to the start line
and is healthy, he wins races.
And all we see from him is that he is continuing
to press on in the sport.
The women's side of the race, while Annie Haug
has been showing herself to be absolutely dominant,
and that longer distance of the Ironman
because she has more room on the run
to get her way through the field,
what we've seen over the past couple of years in Kona
is that we've had two,
maybe three just perfectly ideal scenarios
as far as weather is concerned.
The bike hasn't been too terribly tough.
So what that means is that it doesn't get as spread out
and the athletes
who aren't as strong on the bike are closer,
and if you are closer to that front of the bike
and you can run your way up,
it's easier to run through the field.
So I would expect that we're not going to get
another year with perfect conditions,
just based on law of averages, so I have to think
that that's going to favor the stronger bikers,
the Daniela Ryfs and the Lucy Charles of the world.
I think that at very least,
it's gonna be a very, very close race
with Annie Haug meeting every last kilometer
to get herself into that top spot on the podium, if she can.
With that said Trainiacs,
That is what I think is going to happen in 2020.
This is all just a guess,
I'd like to hear your guesses
of what you think is gonna happen race wise,
equipment wise, everything wise.
How are you doing?
Let me know in the comments below.
Wherever you are, I hope you keeping healthy, safe,
and that you got to spend some time with family
over the holiday season.
So with all of that said,
thank you for being with me this past year,
let's look forward to another great year.
Later, Trainiacs.