The Ukrainian counter offensive has begun, what can we expect from it and
what potentially catastrophic consequences could arise from success... or failure?
First, we have to issue a correction, because this
is not a counteroffensive. Russia failed to get a winter offensive off the ground,
thus what is happening now is a Ukrainian offensive- there is nothing to 'counter attack'.
Since the end of the last offensive launched during the fall, Ukraine has been preparing for a
second major military campaign to push the Russian invaders off its soil. The nation has had to make
huge sacrifices in order to accomplish this though, and front line Ukrainian soldiers have
born the brunt of the cost with greatly increased casualties. While the total number of troops
pulled off the war front is unknown, estimates range around 10 brigades, or 30,000 to 50,000
soldiers. This put massive strain on the Ukrainian front and prevented any major counter attacks.
Russia pitched in to do its part to defeat Russia by stubbornly throwing every available
soldier at the Bakhmut meat grinder. Criticized internally and externally for refusing to retreat
from Bakhmut, President Zelensky's decision to hold the town at all costs proved to be a
stroke of strategic genius, with Ukraine trading 1 its own for an estimated 4 to 5 Russians. As
the summer offensive begins and we already have reports of the Bakhmut line suffering
serious setbacks on the Russian front, it's becoming clear that international criticism
of Zelensky's decision to hold Bakhmut was in all likelihood a ploy- simple misdirection to
signal to Russia that Zelensky was out of step with his American and NATO advisors,
encouraging Russia to throw more men into a Pyrrhic victory in the flavor of Thermopylae.
As one Ukrainian soldier put it, “We are very lucky that they are so stupid.” And Ukraine was
lucky the Russians have been stupid indeed, with other catastrophes such as the Battle of Vuhledar
helping to further stall out any attempt to attack weakened Ukrainian lines. Russian
incompetence created a series of fortuitous breaks for Ukraine who was able to remove a significant
amount of combat power from the front to spend months training with NATO advisors.
These troops underwent accelerated modern combined arms training, learning to work together with
supporting elements such as infantry, armor, artillery, and even aviation. Combined arms is
the way the west fights wars, and is the reason western militaries are so deadly
effective at their job. Lacking air superiority, Ukraine won't be able to take full advantage of
western doctrine, but coordinating artillery with armor and infantry will prove a formidable threat
to Russian forces, who are still struggling to master how to walk while chewing bubble gum.
A big part of the months-long training Ukrainian forces received was how to operate, and work
in concert with, new western equipment such as Challenger and Leopard tanks. New self-propelled
artillery pieces and a whole fleet of western armored vehicles will also be making their debut,
but it's the Leopards, Challengers, and soon Abrams tanks that are the most awaited- as these
tanks finally do the job they were born to do: hunt down and destroy Russian forces. Learning
to employ these advanced weapons of war though has required extensive training from Ukraine's
most elite tankers, and that meant pulling them from the front where they were most needed.
Things haven't all gone Ukraine's way though. In late April or early May Ukraine was forced to
dispatch part of its elite Kraken special forces to Bakhmut to stabilize the front- these were
forces that Ukraine was hoping to keep fresh and ready for the summer offensive. Largely though,
the stage has been set, and Russia has been very helpful in working to design its own defeat.
As of the writing of this script, it's still hotly debated whether or not the Ukrainian offensive has
truly begun- but while western tanks have yet to make their debut, there's no doubt that the
answer to that question is a strong affirmative. Unless you're Russia, before you start any major
military operation you want to launch what are known as 'shaping operations'. These military
strikes take the form of small raids, long-range attack, and deep recon behind enemy lines.
One of the first indications that Ukraine was entering this phase was the infiltration
of small groups across the Dnipro river. These small commando raids were meant to
probe Russian defenses, while simultaneously working to throw the Russian command staff
into confusion as to whether the offensive would start with a river crossing of the
Dnipro or not. This massive water obstacle would heavily favor Russian defenders,
yet nobody in Russia could have missed the announced aid packages from the United
States which included river patrol boats and a lot of river crossing equipment.
Next, Ukraine began a campaign of deep strikes into the Russian rear with the use
of British storm shadow missiles. Publicly, Britain only recently announced that it was
donating the missiles to Ukraine. Privately though Ukraine and Britain would have known
for months the missiles were coming in order for Ukraine to coordinate
its shaping campaign. The fact that by the time the British announced they were providing Storm
Shadows Ukraine was already lobbing them at Russians proves that this is the case.
The storm shadow missile allows Ukraine to strike at targets deep behind the front lines. After the
US provided HIMARS, Russia was forced to pull its supply depots and command posts several
dozen kilometers from the front. These were effectively out of HIMARS range, but not out
of range of Storm Shadow which has a range of 550 kilometers, or for our fellow American viewers
299,200 bald eagle wingspans. The announcement of Storm Shadow arriving just minutes before
they started raining down on Russians allowed Ukraine to use them with the element of surprise,
successfully blowing up multiple ammunition depots and other military targets as far east as Luhansk.
Unfortunately Storm Shadow missiles are a more precious commodity than relatively
cheap GMLRS rockets used in Ukrainian HIMARS, but Russia felt the pain regardless and supply
shortages at front line hot spots like Bakhmut coincided with Storm Shadow strikes- not a
coincidence. The move weakened Russia's ability to resupply and coordinate its frontline troops,
and gave our favorite Russian Spicy Boi Prigozhin, head of Wagner PMC,
lots to complain about while fanning the flames of his ongoing beef with the Russian ministry
of defense- or it would be more accurate to now say, the entire Russian government.
Phase 3 of Ukrainian shaping operations may have been a psychological operation against the Russian
military itself, involving Prigozhin and Wagner directly. Ukrainian intelligence publicly claimed
that Prigozhin had offered to trade Bakhmut for intelligence on Russian military positions,
wishing to save face and losses by taking a meaningless town in exchange for intelligence
Ukraine could use to devastate regular Russian military units. Prigozhin denied the allegations,
but we're going to flat out say it: this is probably true. It's completely within
Prigozhin's character, and coincides with credible reports that Wagner has numerous times
leaked to the Ukrainians intelligence on Russian senior military officers who wound up on the
wrong end of a HIMARS special delivery. With the ongoing beef versus the entire Russian government,
there's good reason to believe that Prigozhin had sought to strike a deal with Ukraine.
But now the relationship between Prigozhin and the Russian government is worse than it's ever been,
with Wagner's chief bordering on full-blown treason. Recently he has warned that Russia
will lose badly against the Ukrainian offensive and called on President Putin
to directly transfer to him 200,000 soldiers so he could stop it. He's also warned that the
ongoing incursions into the Belgorod region by the Russian Freedom Legion and the Russian Volunteer
Corps would result in Russia losing significant territory along its southern border. His most
chilling prediction however was that the Russian government would respond with tactical nuclear
weapons on its own soil, and that Russian generals would face firing squads soon.
Prigozhin has become an interesting character, and it's becoming harder to not believe that he
is secretly tied into Ukraine's victory plan. A born opportunist, Prigozhin gains nothing
from ongoing fighting in Ukraine except money awarded to Wagner via government contracts,
as well as the opportunity to diminish his chief rival Sergei Shoigu, head of the Russian
Ministry of Defense. Now though it appears as if Prigozhin has set his aims higher- maybe- as
fliers appeared around Moscow with pictures of Prigozhin and proclamations that he was a real,
front line leader, not a quote: bunker bitch. Putin has famously had multiple bunkers prepared
on both domestic and foreign trips, and his personal home is often referred to as a 'bunker'.
There's no telling that Prigozhin was behind the mystery fliers,
but with Russian elections coming up, Prigozhin also happens to be trailing Putin in polls by
only 3%. Elections naturally mean absolutely nothing in Russia, but the fact that Prigozhin's
star has risen so rapidly amongst the Russian people is not a coincidence, the man has been
carefully cultivating his public image since the start of the war, portraying the military
as incompetent and its leadership as criminal, soft, and traitors to the Russian people.
It's perhaps no coincidence either then that the Russian Volunteer Corps recently
announced they would deal with Prigozhin and no other Russian official. The far-right group is
staunchly opposed to Putin, and is enjoying major success alongside the Russian Freedom Legion in
its incursions into Belgorod that embarrassed the Russian military who was unable to stop it.
Recently, Prigozhin also released a video of himself and some of his Wagnerites preparing
to return the bodies of an American and Turkish Ukrainian volunteers to their homelands. The
coffins were draped in their respective flags, and Prigozhin offered respectable words for the
volunteers fighting on Ukraine's side. This is an interesting move from a man who ordered his
men to kill all Ukrainians they encountered, even women, the elderly, and children. Perhaps
Prigozhin is merely attempting to curry favor from the west in order to present
himself as a figure for the west to support in a coming collapse of the Putin government.
We're not making any predictions save to say: the stage is certainly set and
Prigozhin appears to be playing his role very well. A Putin collapse fueled by his ongoing
failure in Ukraine and internal strife could be just the opportunity Prigozhin needs. Or
he could simply cause the collapse himself, as he is now head of a military force that
rivals Russia's own military- and commands the respect of a significant amount of its
members to boot. It's not inconceivable that in exchange for an end to the war,
the west would support Prigozhin giving Putin an early retirement.
However, back to the more kinetic part of the offensive there are things we can be
sure of. Ukraine has not made any official announcements save to say that a decisive
date for major combat operations has been set. Currently we appear to still be in the shaping
stage as Ukraine preps the battlefield, but the first signs that major offensive ops are
underway will be the appearance of western armor- and it will not be hard to miss.
Ukraine is almost certainly going to use its NATO-trained reserve as a spearhead to punch
through Russian lines. US military doctrine favors rapid offensives with the concentration
of combat power at one single point of contact, breaking enemy defenses, and penetrating to the
rear areas. Once a penetration of a few kilometers has been accomplished,
offensive forces fan out left and right to sweep into the flanks and rear of adjacent enemy forces.
Ukraine will be employing the exact same doctrine, and is well prepared for this thanks to special
engineering and mine-clearing vehicles provided by the US. Russian defense doctrine involves
the use of multiple lines of defense, with the rear-most defensive line being anywhere from six
to eight kilometers behind the front- for our fellow American viewers that's between 16,872
to 22,497 Pizza Hut Large Meat Lovers' pizzas. In between all these lines of defense Russia
would have deployed extensive mine fields, which is where mine-clearing vehicles come into play.
The Russian artillery advantage is significant however, which is where precision weapons such
as western MLRS, HIMARS, and even air launched cruise missiles come in. Normally a western
offensive would make use of air assets to provide direct air support, striking at enemy artillery
and suppressing it. Ukraine won't have this advantage, and instead will have to rely on
speed and precision strikes by its own artillery- which it'll have to deliver in huge concentration
to be effective. Otherwise its assault forces will get bogged down in Russian killing fields.
However, Russia is experiencing a significant shell shortage thanks to ongoing tax of war
and resupply problems. This is why it's so important for Ukraine to launch effective
shaping operations that target ammo dumps and supply depots before the offensive. In January,
Ukraine launched a psy-ops campaign targeting Russian soldiers and their
families back home by flooding social media with videos like this
Given that on New Years Eve Ukraine killed hundreds of Russian soldiers in one single
HIMARS strike, Captain HIMARS is making a pretty good point to a lot of mobilized Russians.
The real question is, where will Ukraine strike?
There are numerous theories about where Ukraine is likely to launch its expected offensive,
but many in the west and Russia itself seem to have settled on one area:
Zaporizhia. Even now, on June 7th, reports from the Russians themselves
signal heavy bombardment of their positions in the Zaporizhia front.
Given that Russia recently blew up the Nova Kakhovka dam, an offensive across the Dnipro
in the south seems incredibly unlikely even with western bridging and river crossing equipment.
Both Ukraine and Russia have blamed each other for this war crime- but one thing is certain:
only Russia is desperate enough and ready to commit a war crime as big as blowing up a dam.
The move has flooded much of the Dnipro river basin, and US intelligence even believes it
knows which Russian unit carried out the sabotage. In a move that will surprise absolutely nobody,
many Russian forces were themselves caught unawares by the flooding, with reports of vehicles
having to be abandoned and even some troops being stranded and cut off by rising flood waters.
This act of desperation has made it all but impossible for Ukraine to attack in the south
towards Crimea, but many believe that Zaporizhia was the real target anyways. Punching through the
Russian lines here would give Ukraine a straight shot to Mariupol itself, the city where the famous
Azov battalion pinned down thousands of Russians in the first few months of the war through their
stubborn resistance. Taking Mariupol is of significant meaning for the entire war effort,
as it'll effectively cut Russian forces in half and even more importantly, cuts Russia's ground
lines of communication to Crimea. Following an attack on Mariupol, Ukraine would almost
certainly focus its efforts on destroying the Kerch bridge, sealing Crimea's fate.
Ukraine has stated multiple times its intention to liberate Crimea, and it only makes sense for its
summer offensive to set the stage for what will be the defining battle of this war. If Putin loses
Crimea, he might as well take an early retirement courtesy of his old service revolver, because
the Russian elite and indeed even the people may tolerate a dictator, but not a weak one.
However, while Ukraine has the equipment, morale, and a training advantage, as it pushes further
east it now enters separatist territories. Here Ukraine will no longer be a liberator,
but rather an invader, which could seriously hamper its offensive
efforts as it's forced to dedicate forces to counter insurgency operations. It would slow
the rate of the offensive significantly, and threaten to bog it down completely.
One thing is for sure- Ukraine is not losing this war. The west has signaled its firm commitment to
Ukraine through a joint NATO proclamation that the nation will join the alliance at
war's end. F-16 fighter jets, and possibly even F-15s, are certain to be delivered this year,
and in significant numbers. Russia's mounting war crimes, including the blowing up of the
Nova Kakhovka dam, are only fueling hardening resolve in the countries supporting Ukraine. The
real question is, what will happen after Russian forces are defeated in Ukraine,
and what role will figures like Prigozhin play in the coming Ukrainian offensive and beyond?
Now you need to watch “Last Thing You'll See Before a Nuclear Bomb Explodes.” Or,
have a look at our fictional nuclear epic, “I Survived 1000 Days of Nuclear War.”