Hello, my name is Rob Karl Marxd
I'm a meteorologist here at ABC.
Now we're a local ABC television
affiliate and our TV signal rouy
goes from Oroville down to About
Turlock almost to the Bay Area,
Fairfield, Vacaville and then over to
Truckee almost to South Lake Ta.
So essentially inland Northern California
is what I usually forecast day-to-day,
but since this is on YouTube
and on the Internet,
you could be watching me from Dublin.
Or from Dubai, really.
It goes worldwide and that's why I want to
start with where we are with El Nino now.
The last video I did on this,
a lot of people saw it and
I got some great feedback.
I want to thank you for that.
So this is an update to that,
just showing you where we're at at the
moment, just for a quick refres.
El Nino is when the Mid Pacific right
around here becomes warmer than normal,
so you get a lot of warm air.
That's, or excuse me,
warm water that starts off in South America,
then it moves to the middle of the Pacific.
And this region is really
important because what happens?
Is that then the global weather system
start to tap into the warmer surface,
which creates warmer air on top
and more humidity and starts to
tap into it and creates differet
anomalies or differences compard
to normal all across the planet.
So this is a global weather phenomenon.
It's been well charted,
it's been well observed for man,
many decades and we pretty muchw
where we typically go with this.
Now it's not every year,
it's not 100% guaranteed, but.
There are many connections that
routinely keep happening again and again.
So that's why we talk about it
because it can be helpful.
Months down the road off the
coast of California right now,
the water is actually really co.
Remember, we're just wrapping up a very long,
cold winter #1.
#2A lot of wind right off the ct
because it blows north to South,
creates up welling,
which is bringing up colder
water underneath to the top.
So it's very cold.
And then also there's some
element of a lot of runoff thats
working its way out to the coas.
This is snow that's melted, going out to sea.
So there's some element of that.
It's very localized,
but there's some of that going .
So we're not really making connections,
but in South America,
we are and this is very importa.
That's the surface level.
We are very.
Confident going forward that
this is going to keep pace and f
anything it's going to increasen
intensity because we know what's
going on underneath the surface.
So all these little X's here are
actually buoys with temperature at depth.
So you can see what's going on
beneath the Pacific and this
goes all the way to Australia.
This side of it is on the South America side.
And then what we're looking
at is again anomalies.
Temperatures warmer than normal
are indicated here, with the ore
all the way down to the yellow.
So you could see there's big
pockets of subsurface water
that's much warmer than normal.
And then once it starts to surf,
then it really starts to interat
with the air above and change te
patterns and then it blows with
the trade winds out to the midd.
So we know a lot more is coming.
These waves of warmer water than
normal are called Kelvin waves.
And there's been many of them and that's
the reason why we are in this s,
.5 degrees Celsius above a
baseline is called El Nino.
It's La Nina when it's in
the opposite direction.
We've been living down here for three
years and now we're starting to move above.
By the way, this is just Americans version
of this and it's mostly accepted worldwide.
Australia is a little bit highe,
.08, but regardless,
we're all going well above that
in the months ahead.
So this is the computer models.
As they crunch the number,
you could see the dash line.
Sort of an average.
So we're we're going to be ther.
It's either going to be a modere
or potentially if it gets up he,
it could be a strong one in the winter.
So let me dial it back again.
Many of you are watching me from California.
So let's get to our local impacts first.
Now the number one issue here is
that this is a global phenomenod
almost every time after El Nino,
either that year or the following year,
you do tend to see an increase n
global temperatures compared to average.
So that's the number one concer.
Remember, higher temperatures often mean.
More extreme weather,
wet and dry and also hot and in
some cases cold.
It just takes your normal patterns and
ranks it up to a whole different level.
So the getting back to Californ,
the odds favor wetter than norml
conditions in Southern Californa
year after year that we talked t
El Nino and then you have your
observations what actually happ.
It tends to look like this,
this is not 100% how it's going to pan out.
We had a super strong El Nino.
262015 to 2016 and it was not that way.
In fact it was actually much wer
in places like the Pacific Northwest.
So take it with a grain of salt,
but you know, if you crunch the numbers,
you have to at least give some
respect to what's happened over
the years and all the observati.
So this is what we're looking a.
So then when you put it into computer
model forecast, factoring in El Nino,
you have one that just came out.
I think it came out today.
This is on Monday,
May 8th.
This is showing roughly that pan
wetter than normal in Southern California,
maybe Central California as wel,
drier than normal in the Pacific Northwest.
This tends to go through
the Southeast as well.
But if you want to get back to
really the whole point of this s
that this is 1 localized aspect.
You don't base the performance of an El
Nino forecast if it was working or not,
if it happened or not, and if the data
is any good or not based on one region.
This is just California folks,
once you get closer to the sour.
Remember, we're talking about
the middle of the Pacific.
The confidence starts to reallyo
up that you're looking at areas
that are wetter than normal,
right along the equator,
just above that, drier than nor.
And this goes all across the pl.
So it's one of these rare weathr
phenomenons and events that the whole
planet is watching all at the same time.
The odds go up that you're likeo
going to be able to predict thie
closer you get to where the action is.
And also the deeper you go in te
as well as the closer you get te
actual event when things start o
really connect with the atmosphe
and start to make all those cha.
So again, this is going to be early winter,
roughly what we're expecting to
happen months down the road.
All right, lot of El Nino,
let's get back to the local forecast as
of right now, again, Monday mor,
we've got some light precip pushing through.
Not a big deal, but we're wrapping things up.
What's going to happen is that e
going to see this one last little pulse
push on through with rain and s.
And once it's out of here,
it's all about warming up.
So again, we could see some clo,
some sprinkles, some flurries up high,
more, more than that in north f,
Northern California.
And then that should be it.
We know what happens in May, ri?
We know exactly what happens.
We tend to dry out and we tend to see
a shift back to warmer and dry weather.
That should stay here for a whi.
So the rest of this week is going to be
nice and calm. We're going to love it.
Lots of sunshine.
No major rain or anything like .
Temperatures in the 70s, then the 80s.
This upcoming weekend is another taste of
summer with widespread highs in the mid 90s.