>>> TENSIONS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND IRAN AND NORTH KOREA
ARE AT AN ALL-TIME HIGH. IRAN RECENTLY ANNOUNCED
INTENTIONS TO ENRICH URANIUM TO WEAPONS GRADE LEVELS IN THE FACE
OF ADDITIONAL SANCTIONS BY THE U.S.
U.S., WHICH THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SAYS ARE DESIGNED
TO BRING THAT COUNTRY BACK TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE AFTER THE
U.S. WALKED AWAY FROM THE 2015 INTERNATIONAL NUCLEAR AGREEMENT
WITH TEHRAN. THIS AS THE UNITED STATES
CONTINUES TO HAVE DISCUSSIONS WITH NORTH KOREA REGARDING ITS
NUCLEAR PROGRAM. I SAT DOWN WITH PAUL MUSGRAVE,
ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT U-MASS FOR THE LATEST
ON THESE SITUATIONS. >> IF YOU HAD SAID TWO SUMMERS
AGO THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP WOULD NOT ONLY BE MEETING WITH THE
LEADER OF NORTH KOREA, KIM JONG-UN, BUT LITERALLY GO TO
NORTH KOREA, PEOPLE WOULD HAVE BEEN ASTONISHES.
THE TITLE "FIRE AND FURRY" THAT BOOK USED TO GO INSIDE THE
ADMINISTRATION, THAT WAS THE THREAT TO KIM JONG-UN, ABOUT
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF HE DIDN'T GIVE UP HIS NUCLEAR PROGRAM, AND
NOW INSTEAD THE TWO LEADERS, BY ALL ACCOUNTS, SEEM TO REALLY
WANT TO CONCLUDE SOME SORT OF DEAL, AND PRESIDENT TRUMP IS
PRIDING HIMSELF ON BEING ONE OF KIM'S BETTER FRIENDS, SO IT'S
REALLY BEEN A DRAMATIC RUN IN TWO YEARS.
>> CERTAINLY A HISTORIC TRIP FOR A PRESIDENT TO GO INSIDE NORTH
KOREA. I MEAN, THAT'S SOMETHING THAT'S
UNHEARD OF. >> UNHEARD OF, WOULD HAVE BEEN
UNTHINKABLE. THERE'S PEOPLE WHO CRITICIZE THE
PRESIDENT FOR THIS. I THINK THERE IS SOME BASIS TO
DO THAT THAT MAYBE THIS IS GIVING KIM TOO MUCH STATUS.
ON THE OTHER HAND, IF YOU LOOK AT PRESIDENT TRUMP IN THE
CONTEXT OF THE LAST THREE DECADES, HE IS JUST THE MOST
RECENT PRESIDENT TO DEAL WITH IT, ALMOST INTRACTABLE PROBLEM,
THAT NORTH KOREA HAS A NUCLEAR PROGRAM, HAS NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND
MISSILES TO DELIVER THEM, AND HOW DO YOU GET AROUND THAT
PROBLEM? HOW DO YOU CONVINCE THEM TO GIVE
THAT UP? PRESIDENT TRUMP SEEMS TO HAVE
DECIDED THAT HIS POLICY'S GOING TO BE ONE OF OFFERING CARROTS,
REMOVING SANCTIONS, OFFERING INVESTMENTS IN ORDER TO GET
NORTH KOREA TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM.
THAT'S A BIG BET, AND IT'S ONE THAT, RIGHT NOW, LOOKS LIKE
PYONGYANG HOPES THEY DO A DEAL BEFORE THE RE-ELECTION CYCLE IN
ORDER TO GIVE PRESIDENT TRUMP A POLICY WIN.
>> HE DID WALK AWAY FROM THE TALKS IN VIETNAM IN FEBRUARY
BECAUSE THERE WAS NO DEAL, AND, OF COURSE, CAME BACK THEN
STARTED TO DO SOME RELATIONSHIP BUILDING HERE.
DO YOU THINK HE'S GOING TO MOVE? >> I THINK THAT THERE'S A LOT OF
WHEELS WITHIN THE WHEELS SPINNING RIGHT NOW.
WHEN PRESIDENT TRUMP WALKED AWAY FROM THE SUMMIT IN HANOI, IT WAS
BECAUSE IT WAS NOT A DEAL HE COULD LIVE WITH.
IT WAS A STRONG SIGNAL AND SIGNAL IN PRESIDENT TRUMP MAKING
SURE HE'S THE ONE TO BUILD THE RELATIONSHIP.
THERE ARE HARDLINERS WITHIN THE ADMINISTRATION, PROBABLY MOST
NOTABLY NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER BOLDEN WHO WANTED NO
DEAL WHATSOEVER, AND WHAT'S BECOME OBVIOUS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL MONTHS IS THE HARDLINERS HAD BEEN SILENT.
THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP, WHO REALLY WANTS TO DO THE ART OF THE DEAL
WITH THE NORTH KOREANS, IS TRYING TO PUSH FOR SOME SORT OF
AN ARRANGEMENT AND BARGAIN. THE SERIOUS QUESTION IS, WHAT
WOULD AMERICA -- WHAT WOULD THE UNITED STATES BE WILLING TO GIVE
UP AS PART OF THE DEAL? WHAT CONCESSIONS OR COMPROMISES
ARE ON THE TABLE? >> I THINK, YOU KNOW, WHEN HE
TALKED A LITTLE BIT ABOUT CRITICISM RECEIVED FROM BOTH
SIDES OF THE AISLE WITH SOME PEOPLE SAYING, LISTEN, YOU'RE
SHAKING HANDS WITH A WORLD LEADER, AND THIS IS JUST A PHOTO
OPP. DO YOU THINK THERE'S CREDIBILITY
TO THOSE CRITICISMS? >> THIS IS ONE OF THE AREAS THAT
I GO BACK AND FORTH ON. PEOPLE THAT I REALLY RESPECT
THINK THAT THERE'S SUCH PRESTIGE AND BENEFIT TO MEETING WITH AN
AMERICAN PRESIDENT, THAT YOU HOLD THAT ACCOUNT AND FULL
PROGRESS. ON THE OTHER HAND, IT'S BEEN 30
YEARS, HOLDING THE PROSPECT OF A MEETING TO CLEAR THIS OUT, AND
SETTLE THE KOREAN PENINSULA, AND SO MEET WITH HIM, TALK WITH HIM.
I ACTUALLY THINK THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP IN THIS REGARD IS MAYBE A
LITTLE BIT UNDISCIPLINED WITHOUT DOING THE PRIMP WORK, BUT IN
GENERAL, MEETING AND TALKING WITH THE KOREAN GOVERNMENT IS
THE RIGHT WAY TO PROCEED. >> CERTAINLY, IF KIM JONG-UN
TOOK THE DEAL OR STARTED TO NEGOTIATE, I MEAN, HIS ECONOMY
WOULD TURN AROUND. I THINK THAT'S ONE THING THAT
PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT, YOU KNOW, WHAT'S IN IT FOR HIM?
WELL, THAT'S IN IT FOR HIM, REALLY.
>> THAT'S RIGHT. AND THE UNITED STATES LED WHAT
THEY CALL THE MAXIMUM PRESSURE CAMPAIGN IN ORDER TO PUT AS MANY
SANCTIONS AND ECONOMIC HURT ON NORTH KOREA TO FORCE THEM TO THE
BARGAINING AGREEMENT, AND OVER THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS, THE U.S.
HAS BEEN BELOW THE HEADLINES TIGHTENING UP INSPECTIONS
REGIME, OFFERING REWARDS FOR INFORMATION ABOUT HOW NORTH
KOREA IS TRYING TO DEFEAT, AND SO THERE'S A LOT THAT COULD BE
DONE, AND THE QUESTION IS, IS THE UNITED STATES REALLY GOING
TO BE ABLE TO COORDINATE A MOVE OUT OF THAT REGIME WITH THE SAME
SORT OF SOLIDARITY THAT THE CHINESE AND RUSSIANS AND OTHER
STAKE HOLDERS HAVE DISPLAYED IN MOVING INTO THAT, BECAUSE THE
CHINESE CONNECTION IS VERY IMPORTANT, AND JUST BEFORE
PRESIDENT TRUMP MADE HIS VISIT, PRESIDENT XI OF CHINA ALREADY
MADE HIS VISIT TO NORTH KOREA AS WELL, SO THE KIM GOVERNMENT IS
VERY GOOD AT TRYING TO PLAY BOTH SIDES.
>> OKAY. NOW LET'S TALK ABOUT ANOTHER
WORLD STATE, IRAN, SOME NEW DEVELOPMENTS THERE.
BRING US UP TO SPEED. >> OVER THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS,
THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT HAS TRIED TO SHOW THAT IT IS SERIOUS ABOUT
MOVING FORWARD WITH ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM, AND RIGHT NOW, THAT'S
NOT BEEN THE NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM, BUT THE ENRICHMENT
PROGRAM THAT COULD POSSIBLY BE USED TO TURN INTO WEAPONS.
IT COULD HAVE CIVILIAN IMPLICATIONS.
GREAT IRONY IS AS PRESIDENT TRUMP TRIES TO MAKE A NEW DEAL
IN THE KOREAN PENINSULA, HE WALKED AWAY FROM THE JCPOA, A
BIG DEAL TRYING TO CONTAIN THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM.
>> RIGHT. BUT I THINK A LOT OF THE REASONS
WHY HE SAID HE WALKED AWAY IS BECAUSE THIS WAS A BAD DEAL,
NOTHING IN IT FOR US, AND IT DOESN'T SURPRISE ANYBODY THAT
IRAN IS NOW BREACHING THAT DEAL AS WELL.
>> AND THIS IS ONE OF THE AREAS WHERE I THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP
HAS DECISIVELY DECIDED WITH THE HARDLINE.
FROM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU TO THE CONSENSUS IN WASHINGTON THAT
IRAN CAN'T BE TRUSTED. IT WAS A DEAL THAT DIDN'T HAVE
THE SAFEGUARDS, OR ESPECIALLY THE KIND OF TIMELINE OVER WHICH
THAT DEAL COULD PLAY OUT. THE CRITICISM FROM THE OBAMA
ADMINISTRATION AND PEOPLE WHO NEGOTIATED THIS DEAL IS THAT
THERE WAS NOTHING MORE THAT COULD HAVE BEEN DONE IN 2014-15
TO GET THE BETTER DEAL, AND NOW IF THE UNITED STATES WERE TO GO
BACK TO THE BARGAINING TABLE, IRAN IS NOT JUST SITTING ON A
FEW DOZEN OR HUNDRED CENTRIFUGES, BUT THOUSANDS AND
MORE ENRICHED URANIUM AND CLOSER TO REACHING NUCLEAR CAPABILITY
PUTTING THEM IN THE STRONGER POSITION.
THIS IS WHY I THINK THAT PEOPLE ARE REALLY AFRAID ABOUT THE
PROSPECT FOR ARMED INTERVENTION BECAUSE BOTH AT THE NEGOTIATING
TABLE, THE SIDES ARE TRADING INSULTS, AND INCIDENTS LIKE THE
SHOOT DOWN OF THE $130 MILLION U.S. DRONE, THERE'S A LOT OF
KINDLING THAT COULD BE A FIRE. >> A LOT OF TENSION, AND
PRESIDENT TRUMP DID AN ABOUTFACE QUICKLY ON MILITARY INTERVENTION
THAT WAS ON THE TABLE AND DISCUSSED.
SANCTIONS WERE PUT IN PLACE WEEKS AGO, AGAIN, AGAIN,
ESCALATING TENSIONS THERE. WHAT ABOUT COUNTRIES IN THE DEAL
NOW? THEY LOOK AT IRAN, LIKE, YEAH,
YOU'RE NOT KEEPING YOUR END OF THE BARGAIN.
>> THE GREAT SURPRISE HAS BEEN WITH THE EUROPEANS REALLY
WANTING TO KEEP EVERYBODY IN THE DEAL, THE UNITED STATES AND
SANCTIONS REGIME CUTTING IRAN OFF FROM THE INTERNATIONAL
FINANCIAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN SO SUCCESSFUL THAT THE EUROPEANS
ARE MOSTLY GOING AHEAD WITH IT, AND SO THEY ARE UNHAPPY, BUT IN
TERMS OF CONCRETE ACHIEVEMENTS TO UNDERMINE THE REGIME, THEY
HAVE NOT DONE ANYTHING. >> SO WHAT'S NEXT FOR THE U.S.
WITH IRAN? >> WELL, THAT'S REALLY THE KEY
QUESTION. YOU MENTIONED THAT THERE'S A
POSSIBILITY OF AMERICAN REPRISALS, IF YOU BELIEVE SOME
NEWS REPORTS, CLAIMS WERE FUELED OR ARMS OR POSSIBLE IN THE AIR
TO CARRY IT OUT WHEN PRESIDENT TRUMP DECIDED THAT THE
CASUALTIES WOULD BE TOO GREAT, TOO BIG AN ESCALATION.
IT'S CLEAR BOTH SIDES HAVE DIVISIONS ABOUT HOW TO APPROACH
THE OTHER, HARDLINERS IN TEHRAN AND SOFTLINERS IN WASHINGTON.
PRESIDENT TRUMP MADE THE CALCULATION THAT A WAR WITH
MILITARY STRIKES RIGHT NOW IS NOT THE BEST OPTION, BUT THERE'S
DEFINITELY A RISK OF CONTINUING MILITARY ESCALATION AS THE
UNITED STATES AND IRAN CONFRONT EACH OTHER ON A RANGE OF ISSUES
FROM THE NUCLEAR ISSUE TO IRAN'S SUPPORT FOR THE REGIME CHANGE
AND TERRORISM THREAT THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
>> WHAT'S KIM JONG-UN THINK OF THIS ALL GOING ON WITH IRAN AS
HE THINKS ABOUT HIS SITUATION? >> CAN YOU TRUST WHAT YOU DO
WITH THE UNITED STATES? IF YOU'RE A KOREAN LEADER
LOOKING AT JCPOA, HOW THAT TURNED OUT, YOU SEE THE UNITED
STATES UNILOT RIGHT LANELY WALKING AWAY, AND SECRETARY
POMPEO SAID WHEN A NEW PRESIDENT IS IN, EVERYTHING IS UP FOR
GRABS AGAIN, AND WHEN THERE WAS A DEAL WITH THE UNITED STATES,
FIVE YEARS LATER, HE WAS KILLED BY HIS OWN PEOPLE AS PART OF THE
U.S. SUPPORTED REGIME CHANGE EFFORT.
THIS IS REALLY THE SORT OF THING WHERE KIM WAS A SURVIVOR, HIS
FAMILY HAS BEEN A SURVIVOR FOR GENERATIONS, REALLY GOT TO BE
THINKING, WHAT KIND OF DEAL AND SAFEGUARDS AND HOW MUCH OR HOW
LITTLE HE'S WILLING TO GIVE.