OPTIONS. WHAT WOULD A WAR WITH IRAN LOOK
LIKE?
LIKE? IS THERE SUCH A THING AS A
SURGICAL STRIKE AND WHAT ARE THE
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION’S END GAME
HERE.
HERE. JOINING ME NOW IS SOMEONE WITH
SOME FIRST-HAND EXPERIENCE WITH
IRAN AND THE FORMER DEPUTY
ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE FOR
IRAN AND HE’S WORKED ESSENTIALLY
FOR THREE OF THE LAST THREE
PRESIDENTS IN SOME FORM OR
ANOTHER OR AT LEAST IN THEIR
ADMINISTRATIONS.
ADMINISTRATIONS. GOOD TO SEE YOU, SIR.
>> THANK YOU, CHUCK.
>> LET ME START WITH WHAT YOU IN
YOUR EXPERTISE, IS IT -- WELL,
IT’S ALWAYS POSSIBLE IT WASN’T
THE IRANIANS.
THE IRANIANS. WHAT’S YOUR SENSE OF HOW LIKELY
IT WAS IRAN THAT WAS BEHIND THE
ATTACK ON SAUDI ARABIA?
>> LOOK, I THINK WE CAN ALL
STIPULATE 100% THIS WAS IRAN.
THERE’S NOBODY ELSE WITH THE
CAPABILITY OR THE MOTIVATION.
SO IF THAT QUESTION IS REALLY
ANSWERED, THE QUESTION IS WHERE
THE ATTACK CAME FROM, WHAT THE
MOTIVATION WAS, BUT 17 CRUISE
MISSILE, DRONES.
MISSILE, DRONES. THIS WAS CLEARLY AN IRANIAN
BACKED ATTACK AT LEAST.
>> IF THEY USE CRUISE MISSILES
ARE YOU SURPRISED WE DON’T KNOW
WHERE IT CAME FROM YET, OR DO
YOU THINK WE ALREADY KNOW, WE
JUST HAVEN’T SAID PUBLICLY?
>> WELL, I THINK THE
SOPHISTICATION OF THIS ATTACK IS
SURPRISING.
SURPRISING. WE RECENTLY MOVED ADDITIONAL
U.S. ASSETS INTO THE REGION IN
ORDER TO RESTORE DETERRENCE,
WE’VE PUT ADDITIONAL PATRIOT
BALANCE INTO SAUDI ARABIA AND
SPAERNL WE DON’T HAVE MUCH
INTELLIGENCE THIS ATTACK WAS
COMING.
COMING. SO A LOT OF HOMEWORK I’M SURE IS
BEING DONE BEHIND THE SCENES BY
THE TYPE OF STUFF I WOULD HAVE
BEEN INVOLVED IN MY PREVIOUS
CAPACITIES ABOUT WHAT EXACTLY
WAS GOING ON HERE, SOMETHING
CLEARLY WEPT WRONG, WHY WAS IT
NOT DETECTED.
NOT DETECTED. AND I’M HOPEFUL THE
ADMINISTRATION WILL BE ABLE TO
RELEASE AS MUCH AS THEY POSSIBLY
CAN PUBLICLY SO THE WORLD CAN
SEE WUHAT HAPPENED.
SO ALL THAT WORK IS GOING ON.
>> SAUDI ARABIA AND IRAN ARE IN
A PROXY WAR, A HOT WAR IN YEMEN.
SHOULD THEY BE SURPRISED THAT
THIS HAPPENED ON THEIR SOIL?
IS THIS A SURPRISE THAT IRAN IS
ESCALATING IT PROXY WAR THIS WAY
OR IS THIS A NATURAL -- SADLY
NATURAL THING THAT WAS GOING TO
HAPPEN CONSIDERING HOW LONG THIS
YEMENI CIVIL WAR REALLY PROXY
WAR BETWEEN THE YEMEN AND THE
SAUDIS HAVE TAKEN.
>> I THINK THE SCALE AND
SOPHISTICATION OF THIS ATTACK IS
A SURPRISE.
A SURPRISE. IT’S NOT A SURPRISE THE IRANIANS
ARE TRYING TO FRUSTRATE THE FLOW
OF OIL OUT OF THE GULF BECAUSE
THEY SAID THEY WERE GOING TO DO
THIS.
THIS. THEY SAID IF THE U.S. POLICY IS
TO TAKE THEIR OIL EXPORTS DOWN
TO ZERO WHICH IS THE DECLARED
STATE OF U.S. POLICY TRYING TO
DO THAT, THEY WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR ANYONE TO EXPORT
OIL.
OIL. SO WE’VE HAD ATTACKS ON TANKERS
DOCKED OUTSIDE THE UAE ABOUT TWO
MONTHS AGO AND INTERESTINGLY THE
UAE STILL TO THIS DAY HAVE NOT
FINGERED IRAN FOR THAT ATTACK.
AND OBVIOUSLY WE HAD OUR DRONE
SHOT DOWN IN THIS ATTACK HERE.
THIS IS REACTION TO THE U.S.
ECONOMIC STRANGULATION POLICY.
IT’S JUST MY ANALYSIS THAT’S
WHAT’S HAPPENING.
WHAT’S HAPPENING. IRAN HAS MADE THE DECISION AND I
THINK MATTHEW HAD IT PRETTY WELL
ANALYZED, TRUMP IS A PRISONER OF
HIS OWN POLICY.
WE’RE GOING TO PUT SANCTIONS ON
IRAN, GET OUT OF THAT BAD DEAL,
AND IRAN HAS MADE THE DECISION
WE’LL MEAT YOUR MAXIMUM PRESSURE
WITH PRESSURE OF OUR OWN AND
WE’LL NOT COME BACK TO THE
TABLE.
TABLE. WE SEEM TO BE IN A SLOW ROLL NOW
HOW TO RESPOND.
I THINK EVERYBODY IS TAKING A
DEEP BREATH, I THINK THAT’S
PROBABLY GOOD.
PROBABLY GOOD. BUT TWO MONTHS FROM NOW WE’LL
HAVE ANOTHER CRISIS BECAUSE IRAN
HAS MADE THE STRATEGIC DECISION
TO MEET PRESSURE WITH PRESSURE
OF THEIR OWN.
>> WHAT WOULD REALISTIC MILITARY
ACTION LOOK LIKE?
>> I’VE HEARD A LOT OF TALK IN
WASHINGTON ON COMMENTATORS WE
CAN DO PROPORTIONATE LIMITED
STRIKE AND CONTROL THE
ESCALATION.
ESCALATION. THAT’S ALWAYS THE HOPE AND I
THINK YOU TRY TO PREPARE IT THAT
WAY.
WAY. BUT I THINK WE WOULD HAVE TO
PLAN FOR AN ESCALATION FROM IRAN
IN WHICH WE WOULD THEN HAVE TO
RESPOND.
RESPOND. I THINK IT IS ACTUALLY A
SLIPPERY SLOPE AND I THINK WE
HAVE TO BE PRETTY CAREFUL.
LOOK, THE SAUDIS DO HAVE SOME
CAPABILITIES.
CAPABILITIES. >> IT’S FUNNY YOU BRING THAT UP.
LET ME STOP YOU THERE.
THERE ARE A LOT OF COMMENTS
AROUND MY OWN EDITORIAL TABLE
GOING ALL THESE ARMS THE U.S.
SELLS TO SAUDI ARABIA, WHY IS IT
THAT THEY STILL WANT THE
AMERICANS TO USE THEIR WEAPONS
FIRST?
FIRST? >> WELL, HE SAID IN HIS MEETINGS
WITH HIS THEYS IT WAS HIS
ANALYSIS THE SAUDIS WANT TO
FIGHT DOWN TO THE LAST AMERICAN.
THE SAUDIS DO HAVE CAPABILITY
AND I WORKED WITH THEM EARLIER
IN THE COUNTER ISIS CAMPAIGN,
FLEW IN OUR FORMATIONS.
THEY ACTUALLY DID FAIRLY WELL. W
WHAT THEY DON’T DO WELL IN A
CONFLICT LIKE YEMEN CALLED A
DYNAMIC TARGET, TRYING TO HIT
MOVING TARGETS ON THE GROUND.
THAT’S BEEN A DISASTER.
WE COULD WORK WITH THE SAUDIS DO
A PROPORTIONATE LIMITED STRIKE
AFTER THIS, AND THE QUESTION IS
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT.
AGAIN, MY ANALYSIS OF IRANIAN
DECISION MAKING HERE GIVEN JUST
THE BRAZEN NATURE OF THIS ATTACK
I THINK THEY HAVE PROBABLY
PRICED IN A RESPONSE AND THEY
HAVE ALREADY KIND OF LOCKED AND
LOADED THEIR COUNTER.
AND THEN THE ONUS WOULD BE BACK
ON PRESIDENT TRUMP.
AGAIN, TRUMP IS KIND OF IN THE
CORNER HERE AND HE’S A PRISONER
OF THE POLICY.
THIS IS GOING TO KEEP HAPPENING.
WE’RE GOING TO HAVE CRISIS AFTER
CRISIS SO LONG AS THE POLICY IS
JUST A STRANGLE ON IRAN’S
ECONOMY.
ECONOMY. >> THERE’S A REPORT THIS
AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT A
CONVERSATION, SORT OF A
LUNCHTIME CONVERSATION THE NOW
FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR
JOHN BOLTON HAD WITH SOME DONOR.
IT WAS SORT OF A CLOSED LUNCH.
THEY ACTUALLY ECHO WHAT LIPPEDY
GRAHAM IMPLIED -- NOT IMPLIED
SAID IN HIS TWEET WHICH IS THE
DECISION NOT TO RESPOND ON THE
DRONE, ON WHAT THE IRANIANS DID
WITH THE AMERICAN DRONE, THIS --
THE SAUDI ATTACK MAY HAVE
BEEN -- WOULDN’T HAVE HAPPENED
HAD THE AMERICANS RESPONDED THEN
MILITARILY.
MILITARILY. DO YOU BUY THAT?
>> THAT IS TOTAL SPECULATION.
AND I SUSPECT HAD WE RESPONDED
TO THAT DRONE WE WOULD HAVE SEEN
THIS ATTACK PROBABLY SOONER.
AGAIN, I THINK THE IRANIANS HAVE
ALREADY THOUGHT THROUGH THE ES
ESCLATORY LADDER.
ESCLATORY LADDER. THAT’S WHAT YOU CALL IT IN THESE
KIND OF DEBATES.
THEREFORE, IF WE GET INTO THIS,
WE NEED TO BE PREPARED AND THE
PRESIDENT WOULD NEED TO BE
PREPARED FOR A MULTI-MONTH
CAMPAIGN.
CAMPAIGN. I MEAN THIS IS SERIOUS BUSINESS
HERE AND, YOU KNOW, OUR ALLIES
IN THE MIDDLE EAST, THEY’RE VERY
EXPOSED.
EXPOSED. AND I THINK AN IMPORTANT
INDICATOR AGAIN IS THE UAE.
WE HAD TANKERS ATTACKED OFF THE
COAST OF UAE, CLEARLY IRAN AND
THEY STILL HAVE NOT SAID IRAN IS
RESPONSIBLE BECAUSE THEY ARE ON
THE FRONT LINES OF THIS POLICY.
AND SO THE IRANIANS WILL COME
AFTER THEM.
AFTER THEM. AND SO EVERYBODY IS PRETTY
NERVOUS.
NERVOUS. THAT’S WHY I THINK EVERYBODY IS
TRYING TO TAKE A DEEP BREATH
HERE.
HERE. >> WHO’S THE DEESCALATOR?
THE KING HUSSEIN OF JORDAN AT
TIMES CAN PLAY THAT ROLE IN THE
MIDDLE EAST.
MIDDLE EAST. THERE WAS A TIME WHEN -- MAY
HAVE PLAYED THAT ROLE.
PERHAPS CICI WILL.
WHO WILL BE THE PERSON THAT WILL
TRY TO PLAY THAT ROLE AT LEAST
IN THE MIDDLE EAST RIGHT NOW?
>> WHAT’S SO IRONIC HERE IS
FIRST THE DEESCALATOR IS
PRESIDENT TRUMP.
PRESIDENT TRUMP. LOOK, IN THE REGION RIGHT NOW
THE KUWAITYS, THEY DO NOT WANT
TO SEE A CONFLICT.
THE UMANIS WOULD BE WORKING
BEIEPD THEBE
BEIEPD THEBE BEHIND THE SCENES.
YOU’LL HAVE A LOT OF TALK BEHIND
THE SCENES BUT RIGHT NOW
EVERYBODY IS ON A SLOW ROLL.
I THINK THE BEST THING TO DO IS
SHOW THE EVIDENCE TO THE WORLD
HERE’S WHAT HAPPENED, TRY TO
BUILD SOME ALLIES AND SUPPORT
AND THEN WORK UP SOME POTENTIAL
OPTIONS.
OPTIONS. BUT AGAIN THE POINT IS THE
POLICY IS LEADING TO THESE
CRISES.
CRISES. TWO MONTHS AGO IT WAS THE DRONE,
WE’RE LOCKED AND LOADED AND NOW
IT’S THIS ATTACK, WE’RE LOCKED
AND LOADED.
AND LOADED. >> IT SOUNDS LIKE YOU DON’T
THINK THIS POLICY IS WORKING.
>> I THINK IT IS PUTTING THE
PRESIDENT DEEP IN A CORNER AND
SO I THINK HE HAS TO ASK SOME
QUESTIONS, IS THIS REALLY WHERE
I WANT TO GO?
>> LIKE I SAID WHO’S BEEN ON THE
FRONT LINES OF THIS WHETHER IT
WAS AT THE STATE DEPARTMENT, IN
HIS SPECIAL ENVOY IN DEALING
WITH ISIS, DEALING WITH IRAQ.
I FEEL LIKE THE MIDDLE EAST AND