- Morning trainiacs.
This is the first time I've been able
to say this, this year, with any sort of like excitement
because we have a big race coming up.
The PTO world championship that's being held
at Challenge Daytona in Florida.
It's happening.
Even if let's say things-
(object thudding) Geez, geez.
Now, even if let's say the world really doesn't
go well over the next few days
and things have to get called back,
I think they'll still hold the pro race
and that's where a huge amount of the excitement is.
And the reason for that is because never before
have they brought in such an elite number of athletes
from Ironman, from half Ironman, and from ITU racing
who are all at the peak of their career,
focusing on this one race as their A race of the year.
We've got Olympic medalists.
We have number one ranked athletes in the world.
We have defending champions.
We have athletes that have been trying to peak for this year
because the amount of money going into this race
is unheard of in professional triathlon.
And it's exciting.
So, we're gonna go through that race here today
with what we can expect from the pros on both the men's
and the women's side of the field.
(upbeat music)
One of the challenges with knowing
how this race is gonna play out
is that we haven't seen athletes perform in 2020.
The odd athlete has raced here or there
or done a KOM attempt,
but there is nothing like racing to tell you
how you're going to race.
So, it's a big guessing game.
Did people go too hard early in the season,
burn themselves out?
Are they peaking?
Are they injured?
Are they really run fit?
We don't have a clue.
So, I think the best way to figure out
what we can expect in this race
is to look back at where everyone's talent lies
and just go through swim, bike, run.
What can we possibly expect?
Let's start with the men's side of the field.
The men's side of the field is where we see
a significant influence from the ITU athlete.
That's where we start seeing
a lot of speed really built up in the swim and the run.
Because the ITU events are draft legal,
we don't tend to see stand out performances from cyclists.
We see athletes who swim really, really well, world-class
and they do this so that they can get into
that front pack on the bike
and then essentially the front pack on the bike
is a little bit of work.
It's a little bit of tactics here and there,
a little bit of jostling back and forth,
but it's a group effort so that they can get onto the run
with strong enough legs to execute
a low 30s kind of run.
In a 10K that's ridiculous.
So, I think looking at this Daytona distance,
which is really unique, it's a 100K total,
it's a 2K swim, and 80K bike, and then an 18K run,
essentially the bike and the run are similar in proportion
to the overall race as a half Ironman,
but the swim is slightly more important.
So, I think what we're gonna see is in the swim,
we're gonna see a lot of the ITU athletes setting the tone
and gaining a lot of distance on the long course athletes.
This means athletes like Alistair Brownlee,
Javier Gomez, Gustaf Eden, Ben Kanute, Henry Schumann,
Vincent Luis, and Jonny Brownlee,
I think they are going to set the pace for that front pack.
And what we can expect is that they will come out
of the swim together and that's where a lot
of the tactics are going to lie.
The long course athletes are gonna be
a little bit behind them so what's gonna happen?
And this is what I expect to play out.
And this is what Vincent Luis actually talked about
on our podcast just recently,
it's like the new one that's up right now,
you should go check it out.
He talked about this in a lot of detail
that what they expect to happen,
Alistair Brownlee is one of the only athletes
who is really strong swim, bike, run.
And what they see is that Alistair is probably going
to push really hard on the bike to try to beat up
the legs of those ITU athletes who don't have years
and years of riding experience with solo miles.
In addition to that, the draft zone in Daytona is 20 meters.
It's longer than the seven meters
for a lot of USAT triathlons and longer than even the,
I believe it's 12 or 13 meters for an Ironman triathlon.
So, that concept of legal drafting where you save around two
or three watts by staying just barely out of that draft zone
and having athletes work together,
isn't really gonna happen.
In addition to that,
it's hard to pass people easily on that Daytona Speedway
because you've gotta go up onto the bank.
You don't have a lot of time to pass.
So, essentially it's going to be a solo effort
for most of these people.
So, I think what we're gonna have on the bike
is Alistair Brownlee setting the tone
and absolutely hammering it.
Of that group of super swimmers that I mentioned,
I think that Ben Kanute is probably the only one that I know
for sure can definitely hang in there.
Of that group, I think Gustaf Eden proved last year
in the Ironman World Championship
that he can stay in there
and I expect him to be there,
but Javier Gomez we've seen go into races
and not necessarily do a whole lot of work
and when the pace gets really fast and he has to keep up,
he tends to fall off on the run.
So, he doesn't have that really strong bike fitness
that some of these other athletes have.
Vincent Luis, Jonny Brownlee, Henry Schumann,
that's a big question mark.
They're obviously extremely fit athletes,
but do they have that depth of bike fitness
to hang in there with some of the best in the world.
Coming up chasing them
is where it starts getting really exciting.
You've got athletes like Lionel Sanders, Sebastian Kienle,
even Sam Long, and Cam Worth who are going to be able
to put in more power then the majority
of those super swimmers in the ITU athletes.
Rudy von Berg I also think is a pretty good dark horse
because he might not be in that front pack
of the ITU swimmers,
but he's probably somewhere in between those ITU swimmers
and the Lionel Sanders and Sebastian Kienle.
So, he's not gonna have as much work to do to keep up.
So, I think what's gonna happen is we are going to see
the Lionel Sanders' and Sebastian Kienle's
and maybe even the Sam Long's
and Cam Worth's getting their way up
to Alistair Brownlee in that front pack.
And then the question is how beat up is everyone's legs?
Did Alistair do enough work to make the super bikers work
so hard on the bike that they can't execute a good run?
Are the ITU athletes fit enough on the bike
so that they can execute that 30 minute 10K kind of pace
in the run and then end up out running Alistair Brownlee?
Alistair Brownlee can run 30 minutes low for a 10K.
Alistair Brownlee can run close to a three minute kilometer.
Can those super bikers?
I would say they're more like a 3:20 to 3:30,
even somebody like Lionel Sanders
who's putting out 5K personal bests,
that's a lot to ask over the course of 18K
to race at the same pace as essentially somebody
who could go from ITU triathlon onto Olympic track 10K
and still do fairly well.
So, what I think we're gonna see happen is again,
Alistair Brownlee is going to set the pace.
Then who I expect to fall off of the pace fairly quickly,
just because they don't have that outright greasy fast speed
are the really strong bikers, the Sam Long's,
the Cam Worth's, the Sebastian Kienle's,
the Rudy von Berg's, those types of athletes.
I do expect Lionel Sanders to put up a pretty good fight
because he has a previous track history growing up
and he's really damn talented
and he can suffer like nobody's business.
Ben Kanute has always had a tough time on the run.
So, while I do hear that his run fitness
is always progressing and he's more run fit
than he's probably ever been from the looks of things,
you're still asking a lot.
Even with a 10 second difference per kilometer,
you're looking at three minutes difference
on your total run split at Daytona.
Jonny Brownlee has lost a little bit
of his top end run speed
and he's never been quite there with his brother.
And Henry Schumann has also been a very,
very talented runner, but not the peak.
I think the two athletes that I'm looking at
to maybe upset Alistair Brownlee
are Gustav Iden and Vincent Luis.
These are two athletes that have some
of the fastest run splits in ITU
and if they can get off the bike feeling a lot fresher
then some of those super bikers
who have had to work really hard
to catch up to the group,
they probably have more top end run speed
then Alistair Brownlee.
I have no idea how this is all gonna play out
and we're talking about such a dynamic race.
I think that the podium is probably going to consist of
if I had to guess, Vincent Luis, Alistair Brownlee,
and Gustav Iden with a dark horse
of maybe an upset from Lionel Sanders.
But, I wanna hear from you,
let me know in the comments below who you think
is going to do well in Daytona.
Let's get into the women's race
which is I think a little bit more straight forward,
but also a little bit tougher to predict
how it's going to play out exactly.
The women's side of the field hasn't had
that same influence that the men's side has had
from the ITU athletes coming in and making it super fast.
We've certainly seen the speed come up,
but we still do see long course athletes excelling
at long course as opposed
to short course athletes now coming in
and dominating long course like we see in the men's field.
As far as the front pack with the swim goes,
I think it's a very small field
that's going to be able to compete
with the likes of three women
being Holly Lawrence, Paula Findlay, and Lauren Brandon.
These are the elite of elite swimmers
that are leading the field
in just about every single race that they go into.
Lauren Brandon might have the edge
in this longer swim kind of effort,
but it is also much sharper.
It's much, much more intense than the Ironman efforts
that she dominates.
But, I think those are gonna be the three women
that are leading the field out of the swim.
On the bike, I think Holly Lawrence
of those three is probably the strongest of the group
with Paula Findlay being close,
but anytime they've gone head to head,
there's a little bit of a gap.
So, I expect Holly Lawrence to pull away from that group
because it is a solo effort
and I think that as long as she's fit and healthy,
which has been her achilles heel
over the last several years,
that she is going to be the strongest on the bike.
Where the challenge is going to come for her
is I think from a fair ways back actually
from the non-swimmers, not the middle of the pack,
kind of good swimmers, but the real elite bikers
being Laura Philip and Heather Jackson.
I think they are going to work really hard
to get as close as they can to Holly Lawrence
at the end of the bike,
but I do expect Holly Lawrence to have stayed away.
I don't think it's gonna be like the men's field
where we have as many as 10 or 12 athletes
coming off the bike essentially together.
I think it's going to be a little bit more
like Holly Lawrence comes in with a clear lead
and she has to hold off the super runners that are close.
Now, if we look at that group of super runners
that are going to be within I expect somewhere between one
and three minutes back,
we can look at Paula Findlay having decent run pedigree,
as long as she has been run fit
and it seems like she has from her YouTube channel,
which by the way you should go check out, it's awesome.
But, of those athletes that are pretty close,
I think Laura Philip is probably going to be
the biggest competitor that Holly Lawrence
is going to have to hold off.
She is extremely run talented.
She's tremendously fast in short and long course racing
and if you see her training, she looks like she's quick.
She's got really good foot turnover.
She is a strong athlete
and I think she's probably going to put in
the biggest scare into Holly Lawrence.
I think some of those runners
that are even a little bit further back,
like Annie Haug, Sarah Crowley, Chelsea Sodaro,
who are even a little bit further back,
but extremely talented on the run
could work themselves up close to the podium.
So, I will make a call on the women's side of it
where I think Holly Lawrence is going to come away with it
with the best challenge coming from Laura Philip
and I think that third podium spot could actually come
from one of the athletes trying to run their way in
be it Annie Haug, Sarah Crowley, or Chelsea Sodaro.
I would even put Paula Findlay in there
because she has been executing better
and better races as she's been able to train more and more
as her injuries have become smaller and smaller issues.
So, that's what's up with challenge Daytona.
I think it's gonna be a fantastic race.
I'm sorry that we can't go there.
I really want to because the people are great.
The race is great.
Unfortunately, we would just have to quarantine
when we came back through Boxing Day
and that ain't gonna happen in our family.
Now, if you wanna see what it looks like
at Challenge Daytona, you can check out the race coverage
that we did right over here.
It's gonna be a fantastic race.
Good luck to all the pros and hopefully all the age groupers
who are going to be attending.
It's a fantastic race and a wonderful experience.
So, good luck.
And it's gonna be hard.
Suffer away and I'm gonna have
a grand old time watching it online.
Later trainiacs.