>> WHAT A NICE WAY TO PUT THAT.
LAUREN: UNDERSTATEMENT.
>> MOVING ON TO THE ELOQUENCE OF
THE MAD DOG ON TO THE MAD
COMMODITY TRADERS.
A NEW REPORT OUT SHOWING OIL
DEMAND SLOWING DRASTICALLY NEXT
YEAR ACROSS THE GLOBE AS CRUDE
DROPS TO A 16-MONTH LOW TODAY.
WHAT DOES THIS SAY ABOUT THE
HEALTH OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
GOING FORWARD?
>> THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS A
DISASTER.
WE KNOW WHAT'S HAPPENING.
I DON'T KNOW WHY EVERYBODY IS
STILL TRYING TO WORK THIS OUT.
YOU LOOK AT WHAT'S HAPPENING IN
GERMANY.
I THINK THEY HAD NO GROWTH.
I MEAN, WE KNOW WHAT'S COMING IN
THE NEXT TWO YEARS.
IS THERE ANYBODY LEFT WHO THINKS
IT COULD BE OTHERWISE?
LAUREN: FIRST OF ALL, CAROL,
YOU'RE LAUGHING BUT RICK SAID IN
THE BREAK HE DOESN'T REALLY
WORRY ABOUT THIS SORT OF THING,
OIL OR GAS PRICES, BECAUSE HE'S
NEVER OWNED A CAR.
YOU DON'T OWN A CAR NOW?
>> I DON'T OWN A CAR NOW.
LAUREN: HE DOESN'T CARE.
>> PLUS I ALWAYS BALANCE, I BUY
OIL STOCKS IF THE PRICE OF
GASOLINE IS GOING UP.
LAUREN: HE TOLD ME THAT, TOO.
BUT I THINK THE QUESTION NOW IS
WHAT SIGNAL IS THIS PRECIPITOUS
DROP IN THE PRICE OF OIL
SENDING?
WE DID GET DATA THAT NOT ONLY IS
U.S. SUPPLY AT A RECORD HIGH BUT
SO IS U.S. DEMAND.
SO IS THE OIL MARKET TELLING US
SOMETHING THAT WE'RE NOT SEEING,
IF THE DEMAND IS THERE, IS
DEMAND REALLY GOING TO FALL OFF
A CLIFF THAT SEVERELY?
WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK OF THAT?
>> I THINK IF YOU WERE LOOKING
AT OIL BY ITSELF, I WOULDN'T BE
SO CONCERNED, BUT OBVIOUSLY,
WE'RE IN A RISING INTEREST RATE
ENVIRONMENT, WE HAVE A STRONGER
DOLLAR AND WHEN YOU PUT ALL OF
THOSE THINGS TOGETHER, AMIDST
THE GLOBAL SLOWDOWN THAT WE ALL
SEEM TO THINK IS GOING TO
HAPPEN, ESPECIALLY RICK, I THINK
THAT DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THE
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY AND WHILE
SOME PEOPLE MAY SAY WELL, THAT'S
GREAT, THAT MEANS THE U.S. IS
GOING TO BE STRONG, I THINK IT'S
GOING TO BE DIFFICULT FOR US TO
CONTINUE THE LEADERSHIP WE HAVE
AND A LOT OF STRENGTH WHEN
EVERYBODY ELSE IS FALTERING.
>> BUT WE'RE NOT IN A RISING
INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT.
THE TEN YEAR JUST CAME DOWN FROM
3.25% TO 2.75%.
THAT'S WHAT'S TIED TO THE
MORTGAGES AND A LOT OF LOANS.
THIS IS SPECIFICALLY TELLING YOU
THERE IS A DEMAND ISSUE THAT'S
COMING DOWN THE PIKE AND THE
GREATEST ECONOMIST OUT THERE IS
NOT A PERSON, IT'S ACTUALLY THE
MARKET ACTION ITSELF.
IF YOU GO FROM 75 DOWN TO 60 IN
OIL PRICES, OKAY, MAYBE IT'S
ABOUT SUPPLY.
BUT 75 DOWN TO 46 SINCE OCTOBER?
THAT IS AGAIN, THE YELL AND
SCREAM OF MARKETS AND MARKETS
ARE VERY GOOD AT FORECASTING
THREE, SIX, NINE MONTHS OUT THAT
OFF THE CLIFF WE GO IN MANY
AREAS.
GERMANY, THE ENGINE OF EUROPE,
HAS ALREADY ANNOUNCED THE
CONTRACTION.
JAPAN ANNOUNCED CONTRACTION.
IF GERMANY IS HEADING SOUTH, I
CAN PROMISE YOU THE REST OF
EUROPE AND WE ARE DEFINITIVELY
NOT IMMUNE TO THIS, AND
UNFORTUNATELY, WE ARE GOING TO
GO THROUGH SOME PAIN THROUGH
2019.
IT WILL BE WRITTEN PRETTY BADLY
WHEN ALL'S SAID AND DONE.
>> THE MOVE UP TO 75, I HAVE TO
POINT OUT, WAS KIND OF CRAZY,
TOO.
WHAT WAS UP WITH, YOU KNOW, WHAT
WERE PEOPLE FORECASTING FOR
DEMAND THEN?
I WAS UNDER WEIGHT OIL THEN AND
PEOPLE ROLLED THEIR EYES AT ME.
LAUREN: BUT THE OIL COMPANIES
CAN MAKE MONEY AND THEY CAN
SPEND MONEY AND THEY CAN INVEST
IN DIFFERENT WAYS TO GET OIL OUT
OF THE GROUND, NOW IT'S SO LOW
THEY WILL GO OUT OF BUSINESS.
>> THERE IS GOOD NEWS.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IF OIL
PRICES JUST STAY HERE, GAS
PRICES, THERE'S ABOUT AN $80
BILLION EXPENSE CUT TO THE
CONSUMER OVER A YEAR BASIS THAT
THEY'RE NOT GOING TO BE SPENDING
ON IT AND THAT DOESN'T INCLUDE
COST OF BUSINESSES LIKE AIRLINES
AND THINGS LIKE THAT.
SO THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS.
MY BIG WORRY IS FORECASTING THE
SLOWDOWN SO YOU GOT ONE GOOD
SIDE, ONE NOT SO GOOD SIDE.
>> ONE THING ON SUPPLY, THOUGH,
I HAVE TO SAY, IF WE WANT TO
TAKE CARE OF THE SUPPLY SIDE OF
THIS, MAYBE WE NEED TO GO TO
IRAN.
LOOK AT IRAN AND MAYBE CUT OFF
THE SANCTIONS THERE.
>> CAN I JUST ADD THIS?
ONLY BECAUSE I NEVER GET TO SAY
THESE WORDS?
>> OKAY.
>> GARY KALTBAUM IS ABSOLUTELY