TRISH: A NICE RALLY GOING.
THE HEIGHT OF THE SESSION UP TWO
AND 40 POINTS ON THE DOUBT.
WE ARE FROM WHITE HOUSE CHIEF
ECONOMIST KEVIN HASSETT SEEN THE
ECONOMY IS AS SOLID WE HAVE SEEN
IN A WHOLE LIFETIME.
YALE ECONOMICS.
IT IS GOOD TO SEE YOU ROBERT.
3% GROWTH COMMENT THAT IN THE
CARDS?
COULD IT BE BETTER?
>> IT COULD.
IT'S POSSIBLE.
I FIRST MET KEVIN HASSETT WHEN
HE WROTE A BOOK CALLED DOW
36,000.
I WAS DEBATING HIM ON TV AT THAT
TIME.
SO YOU KNOW, I HAVE A LOT OF
RESPECT FOR THE MAN.
HE IS SMART.
BUT HE MISSED THAT ONE.
HE HAS TROUBLE TOWARDS DRAMATIC
FORECAST, SO PROBABLY WON'T BE
AS GOOD AS THAT.
IT COULD BE.
[INAUDIBLE]
>> WELL, COMPARED WITH RECENT
ACHES.
AND, YEAH.
IT IS POSSIBLE.
WE ARE ALSO ENTERING A PERIOD
WHERE THE DEMOGRAPHICS ARE
WORKING AGAINST US.
BABY BOOMERS ARE RETIRING.
THAT KIND OF THING MAKES IT SEEM
A LITTLE BIT LESS LIKELY.
THE REAL QUESTION IS DOES TRUMP
HAD SPIRIT TO THE MARKET AND THE
ECONOMY?
I ACTUALLY WROTE A BOOK CALLED
ANIMAL SPIRIT.
AND WE ARGUE THAT ACTUALLY IT
DOES MATTER.
SO YOU KNOW, I DON'T MEAN TO BE
TOO NEGATIVE.
HE COULD BE RIGHT.
WE COULD EVEN DO BETTER THAN
THAT.
SURE INTO HOW MUCH OF THAT IS
POLICY, HOW MUCH OF THAT IS
ANIMAL SPIRIT AND CONFIDENCE?
YOU'VE GOT TAX REFORM NOW THAT'S
MORE MEANINGFUL FOR CORPORATIONS
AND THE MIDDLE-CLASS INDIVIDUALS
YOU KNOW, YOU ALSO HAVE THIS
EXCITEMENT I SUPPOSE THAT ALSO
MATTERS.
>> YEAH, WELL IT'S GOING TO BE A
LITTLE OF BOTH.
I WILL EMPHASIZE THE EXCITEMENT
SIDE.
I'M NOT A BIG FAN OF PRESIDENT
TRUMP, BUT I CAN SEE IT'S
DEFINITELY THERE.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WON'T
HAVE HIGHER ECONOMIC GROWTH.
THAT IS PART OF WHAT'S DRIVING
THE MARKET.
THEY ARE INHERENTLY
PSYCHOLOGICAL.
PEOPLE LOOK AT EACH OTHER AND
SEE WHO'S EXCITED.
IF THEY THINK OTHER PEOPLE ARE
EXCITED, THEY MIGHT BE INCLINED
TO BID PRICES UP IN RESPONSE TO
THAT.
TRISH: BUT LET'S ALSO FACTOR IN
SOME OF THE OTHER THINGS GOING
ON.
NOT TODAY, BUT CERTAINLY
YESTERDAY INCREASE THEIR YIELDS
ON TREASURY AND THERE'S SOME
CONCERN OUT THERE THAT IS
TREASURY'S MOVE HIGHER, GETS
MORE AND MORE ANSWER TO BORROW
MONEY.
YOU MENTION BABY BOOMERS
RETIRING.
YOU'VE GOT SOME THINGS THAT ARE
SORT OF WORKING AGAINST US IN
TERMS OF DEMOGRAPHICS.
ALL THOSE TV BOOMERS SAY I'M
RETIRING, I'M OUT OF HERE.
I'M GOING TO GO TO A STATE LIKE
FLORIDA WHERE I DON'T HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT I CAN
DEDUCT MY INCOME TAX OR NOT IN
DAILY THESE OTHER HIGH-TECH
STAYS BEHIND WITH HEAVY BILLS.
HOW DOES THIS PLAY OUT?
KEEP IN MIND, ROBERT, YOU ARE A
BIG COUP ROUTE IN THE REAL
ESTATE SENSE AS WELL AS A REAL
ESTATE ECONOMIST IN SO MANY
AMERICANS HAVE SO MUCH MONEY
TIED UP IN THEIR HOMES.
HOW DO YOU THINK ABOUT HOW THIS
GOES AS WE MOVE FORWARD TOWARD
HIGHER INTEREST RATES?
>> YOU HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THAT
REAL ESTATE IS NOT LIKE THE
STOCK MARKET.
THEY TALK ABOUT MOMENTUM IN THE
STOCK MARKET.
IT'S JUST A LITTLE BIT OF
MOMENTUM.
THE HOUSING MARKET IS MASSIVELY
CONTINUES ALONG THE MOMENTUM
PATH.
AS THE CRISIS, WE'VE SEEN
INCREASES BEFORE ANY TEN-YEAR
TREASURY RATE, BUT THEY DIDN'T
HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON HOME PRICES.
IT JUST KEEPS GOING UP.
AFTER 2012 IT WAS 10% A YEAR.
NOW IT'S MORE LIKE 5% A YEAR,
BUT IT JUST KEEPS CHUGGING
ALONG.
IT'S NOT AS RESPONSIVE TO
MORTGAGE RATES AS MANY PEOPLE
THINK.
TRISH: GOOD.
I WILL LEAVE ON THAT HAPPY NOTE
WITH ROBERT SHILLER 3% IN THE