Earlier this month,
a drone flying into the Kremlin
and what appeared to be
a major security breach for Russia.
Theories
on what exactly happened
spanned from it
being a splinter group inside
Russia to the video
being a total fabrication.
But now UN
sources tell CNN
intelligence agencies
in the United States
may have some evidence
that Ukraine may be behind the attack.
The US has,
of course, stood
staunchly behind Ukraine
since Russia's invasion last year.
So tonight we asked,
could US support for Ukraine be affected?
I want to go to Natasha Bertrand
with the latest from Washington.
They use
the wording
may be responsible, right,
that Ukraine may be responsible
for this attack.
What is the intelligence
telling us right now?
Yeah, Eleanor,
so this is a low confidence
assessment by the US
intelligence community,
which really means that they don't
have enough information to say
really definitively one way or another
who actually carried out this attack.
But based on things
like who would be motivated
to do this, intercepted communications
among Ukrainians
pointing the finger at each other
and importantly signals
intelligence and intercepted
communications from Russian officials
that don't seem to indicate
any kind of state
sponsored false flag attack or planning
when it came to this drone attack.
All points
to US
officials to the conclusion
that perhaps this was a Ukrainian group.
But again, no definitive
proof of that yet.
And importantly, U.S.
officials don't believe that
this was actually
an assassination attempt,
as Russian officials have alleged.
They believe
that this was
likely carried out
by a Ukrainian group
without any kind of direction.
From the central government there
in Kiev from President Vladimir Zelensky.
But look, another thing
contributing to this U.S.
assessment is that it
wouldn't be the first time
that the US has seen kind of
Ukrainian groups
carry out
operations like this on Russian soil.
Right. The U.S.
intelligence community
pointed the finger at Ukrainians
for the car bombing in Moscow last year.
Other kinds of operations on U.S.
soil.
Leaked Pentagon documents
have suggested that the Ukrainians
have actively planned to launch attacks
and operations on Russian soil.
So they
they don't necessarily
find this surprising.
But at the same time, you know,
this is not necessarily
going to impact
American support for Ukraine
because there's no sign
there are no signs yet
that the Ukrainians
are using any kind of US aid or U.S.
provided weaponry to actually launch
these kinds of operations.
Those two drones that we saw
hit the Kremlin earlier this month,
they were not us provided
they were small,
relatively lightweight drones
that embarrassingly
for the Kremlin, did
manage to bypass
Russia's air defense system.
So the US still kind of
looking into
who exactly carried this out.
But for all intents and purposes,
they do not believe that
this was an attempt to kill
Vladimir Putin himself. Elaine.
Yeah, I mean, really important.
And you mentioned, you know,
whether this could affect the US support
for Ukraine
as we receive more information.
I guess the big question will be
what equipment, what drone they used.
Whoever used this
that that would be
an important distinction to make
That's exactly right.
And these commercial
these drones
that we saw are pretty common.
They're kind of
it was kind of like a lightweight
commercial drone that was used.
And that's why U.S.
officials are also considering
the possibility
that pro-Ukrainian Russians,
even inside Russia,
could have carried this out.
Perhaps some Russians
who were disillusioned
with the Kremlin and its war in Ukraine.
So not even necessarily
the Ukrainians themselves,
but the all of these motivations
and the fact, again, that the Russians
have been trying
to figure out how this actually happened
rather than speaking among themselves,
for example,
about
some kind of false flag operation
that has led the US
to consider the
possibility that perhaps yet again,
this was a Ukrainian group
just essentially trying
to troll the Kremlin, blaming
right.
Potential such a trend.
Thank you very much for that.
Well, I want to bring in zero,
Micheline Shapira.
She's a lecturer
at war
studies department
at King's College in London.
Great to have you on, Vera.
What are your initial thoughts on
this new US intelligence
about what we've seen important
The wording is that
it may have been the Ukrainians.
Mm hmm.
Yeah, I think the U.S.
I mean, this U.S.
intelligence is confirming
what is quite the logical conclusion
from everything we know.
And so far, about this attack.
And that is that it was
probably not done by the Russians.
It was probably not
the false flag operation
and that we could see
from their response.
So when we are watching them,
when we
watching how they respond
and when we're watching
how they link it, frame
the blame kind of
and frame
that as an assassination attempt.
So kind of trying to go overboard,
but also showing that they're
quite confused at first.
And then they decided on their line.
So everything that we saw on the day
and in the following
in the following days
when they were
still kind of very actively
engaged with this with this subject,
because obviously the news cycle in
Russia is very,
very fast moving with everything
that's been going on.
So, yeah,
I mean,
this is a logical conclusion
that it is some kind of Ukraine war
by possibly Ukrainian group or
Russian sympathizers of Ukraine
Yeah, exactly.
So we know
we've we've
kind of narrowed it
down to the possibilities here
as the US
is still gathering intelligence,
which is important
as we wait for
more facts to come through.
But the US, of course, has been
one of the big supporters
from a monetary perspective,
aid in terms of weapons
being supplied as well.
As we just heard from Natasha
Bertrand, important to note
what type of drone was used,
whether it was supplied
by the United States
and whether that would
then hamper
support
of the US towards Ukraine in the future.
Do you think that relationship now
is going to come into question?
I find it hard to believe
that that particular attack would would
bring into question
the relationship between the U.S.
and Ukraine,
which is now it's been quite long.
The Ukrainians have shown
that they are
that this relationship is very important
for them.
I think it was if it was
used by a Ukrainian group
or even by sympathizers,
I think it was important to discuss
on Wednesday
where once images where were shown
a pretty obvious disregard for that
very easily,
that it's quite easy
to buy those drones to use those drones.
And so that kind of move
this whole question to move that aside.
Now, having said that,
questions about how Ukraine
and what kind of actions
Ukraine take in Russia,
I'm not speaking
specifically about this attack
with the drones that we see.
That is a lingering question that is a
lingering issue,
primarily because of
fears of escalation with Russia.
Yeah, that's a really good point, right?
Whether the war or the fight
is going to move
beyond Ukraine's borders.
And we saw what happened in Belgorod,
for example,
obviously very different situation there.
We have seen some targets within Russia
in the past before.
What is your assessment
about how this could possibly play out?
I think one of the things
that is surprising
people as well is just how vulnerable
Russia is and perhaps
how unprepared it is
for possibly attacks on its own soil.
Mm hmm.
So I think the Ukrainians
who are actually thinking on that point,
the Ukrainians are actually proving
that their line
is probably the correct one,
which is a the pressure
is quite vulnerable
within its own territory,
that the border is quite vulnerable
and that the defense
air defense systems are not working
as well as they should.
So actually,
they put the Ukrainians are showing
everyone is that it is possible.
The second thing that they're showing,
and that is there is a divide within
what will cause an escalation in Russia.
And obviously,
the biggest fear always
is nuclear escalation.
So the Russian
doctrine of nuclear
escalation is so fuzzy.
And they do include a risk for a nuclear
a use due to conventional end threat or
conventional aggression
or threat, conventional aggression
against Russia.
But what the Ukrainians are showing
actually that the Russians
have very little appetite
for that kind of escalation
of an escalation with the West,
so that they're proving to us
that the Russians are aware
that they can't really escalate this
into a war with the West.
Very great to have you on.
Thank you so much.